John Hjorth

Mike, It's a very special and positive experience to see & follow a young person one know from low age grow and participate in the accomplishment of something truly outstanding, thereby releasing that persons real potential, which sometimes can be hard to spot at a child at low age. - - - o 0 o - - - Here is a good introduction to black holes by Phil Plait. [H/T Chaz Hutton on Twitter].

Both the picture and your post show how tiny the world is, Mike!

You're right, kab, Here [lower part of page] is a crash introduction to Danish bond rates. Red: Short EUR rate Black : Short rate [DKK] Green/grey [<- sort of] : Long rate [DKK]

It's actually a good question, Spekulatius, DANSKE does not even have a US banking license. I think it is about section 9.3.16 [p. 48] in the Bruun & Hjejle Report. A reporter has dived deep into this, and found out it was a US bank, that had cut ties in 2013 with the Estonian DANSKE branch on grounds of dirty money rolling in. I do not recall the information with full precision, but by best recollection it was a branch in Germany of C or JPM. [Again, I do not consider myself mean, but I still remember the feeling of the endorfines that got released out in my body by reading it, because it was one the US banks that I own [ : - ) ]] [There may perhaps be a fine to that bank also for not stopping it timely.] So I suppose a minor army of regulators after reading this stuff has jumped on an plane in New York and has been raiding a branch office of C or JPM, so every normal business routine there basically has come to a stop for a period, perhaps in Frankfurt?

Peteris, How about SEB? I haven't spent much time on it for some years now, because it has been doing quite well over the years since I first invested in the Wallenberg Sphere via Investor AB [, which hold a large chunk of SEB]. Naturally both the bank and Investor AB are mute right now - perhaps working like crazy internally to get a firm grip on it if the bank has a problem similar to Danske Bank, Swedbank & Nordea in the Baltic States. Any news related to that from your angle? -Thank you in advance.

Thank you for asking, Viking, - - - o 0 o - - - Off topic: I'm soo frustrated at the moment because of what is going on on the political scene for our fellow European board members in the UK, and what that may bring to us all going forward. So to me this conversation about DANSKE is a good mental diversion [ : - ) ]. - Now back to topic. - - - o 0 o - - - In short, to me, there is not much doubt that DANSKE will rerate upwards in the future, based on ignoring a lot of macro stuff looking forward, but taking still into consideration some local issues and certain DANSKE specific issues. The question to me is only how much and when. It's to me an obvious investment case candidate for you, based on how you like to invest, ref. your starting post in this topic. - with proven success - documented by you here on CoBF, and "When it rains on the priest it drips on the clerk". [i'm among the clerks here [ : - ) ].] The stock is hammered down - cut in half - by this money laundering case. Peteris has already posted it as a one-liner in this topic: It's a non-event, except with regard to reputational risk and fines, however an important thing I would like to add here is class action lawsuits by groups or clusters of shareholders. The whole mess actually started back in 2007 [!] [it's in the full Bruun & Hjejle Report.] In short, the thugs and criminals doing this stuff abusing the DANSKE Estonian branch were way ahead - not only of existing control systems in the branch [lack of migration of branch IT systems to DANSKE group systems, but also way ahead of the ruling AML regulation with regard to requirements NYC-Know your customer.] So, everybody involved in to getting to the bottom of this have ended up stuck - some of the data simply does not exist inside DANSKE, because they were never asked for. [Full identification/legitimation of persons, for companies, LP's, LLPs etc. records of owners and such.] Add to that, the Hjejle Report does not - at all - shed a positive light on the Danish FSA and the Estonia FSA - to put it mildly - in this case. The Danish FSA and the Estonian FSA have publicly been pointing fingers at each other, saying the other part is to blame for this mess, that nobody can get to bottom of. [i haven't posted about this here on CoBF - I think I would have been accused of spamming CoBF - but I can assure you it has been great entertainment for me to follow.] Now what do you get when you take this oversize & already overcooked lump of spaghetti of a cascade calamities of errors, misjudgements, wrong decisions and actions and try to spice it up with a huge stint of moral hazard? [ : - ) ] - It just happens sometimes ... - to me, this is a lonely swallow - I think the rest of the bank is OK. This is afterall about some events in Estonia, not Denmark - but with some managerial ties to Denmark, however & naturally. The new CEO does not need to be a surgeon [ref. Buffett's quote about sometimes you need a surgeon cut out the bad part of a business to get the good one.] The Estonian branch is already gone, also ref. Peteris' post above. With regard to fines, for the Danish part, from the Danish FSA, after the release of the Bruun & Hjejle Report, there were a political pressure with questions about why DANSKE has not been fined by the Danish FSA for all this. [i have for years had a loose feeling that DANSKE got special [positive] treatment - I have seen inspection reports for other Danish banks less grave than for DANSKE resulting in fines.] The situation here is that DANSKE has an option to appeal while fined, - while it has bent over - and because of "double jepardy" rule in this part of the whole system, there is no way for the Danish FSA to punish DANSKE for THE PAST further. At the same time the head of the Danish FSA repeated his request for more funds to run the FSA - which he got. [sometimes - even if it's just a tiny part of it - reason rules in some places of Europe.] He has been struggling with his best people leaving for better paid jobs, based on a public & rigid non-competitive salary system.] - So in short, the political system here in Denmark has now settled with the case, based on reason. In short : Just these movements up and down with the shoulders - one time, combined with the comment : "Here are some money - now, make sure it won't happen again." [Which to me has been the exactly right conclusion.] I have read 1 [one!] political comment in the Danish news, just after the release of the Bruun & Hjejle Report yelling: "We denititely now need a State [owned] bank to take care of our money!" - with no traction at all. No Ms. Warren here. Then there is the potential US fines. I have read no concrete evidence of anything but start up on investigation. My overall perception as of now is, that they have a tendency not to go totally haywire, if the accused cooperates. Which DANSKE does. It may well end up being a dent, however manageable for DANSKE. With regard to class action lawsuits from groups & clusters of shareholders, I'm not aware of any Danish pension fund etc. who has joined this kind of game. Deminor - mentioned by me earlier in the Vestas Wind Systems topic here on CoBF - is on a mission here, - as far as I know it has been turned down by every Danish pension fund etc.

Thank you, Viking, And it's certainly OK to put me on the spot. [ : - ) ] I'm unopinionated and unable to contribute anything of value for Swedbank and Nordea. So here is a bit about Danske Bank. Your key question about investability is to me personally the exactly right approach here. One thing I have learned here on CoBF is not to engage in major compromises with regard to management in an investment. I think the new chairman Karsten Dybvad is the right person for the position based on reading about him. The former chairman Ole Andersen got fired on the initiative by the Maersk sphere. The functioning CEO Jesper Nielsen is interim. I think the rest of the management team in the bank involved in the money laundering case already has left the bank voluntarily [by resigning] or has been fired. The CEO situation for the bank has been an open & unresolved issue for now more than a half year. I'm on the sidelines because of that, not even trying to study the bank further at this stage, to avoid any temptation. So, in short: I want to see "the giraffe". [i don't consider myself in any way mean by nature, but I can't help a bit a of sarcasm here : The headhunter who have this - most likely very lucrative - gig of finding the next CEO is on a tough mission - I think he/she is actually searching for Mr. Moynihan's double ... - and I don't think he exist, - despite lots of Brian's here, there & everywhere! [ : - ) ] - well, Birgitte Mogensen just became available - however I think the headhunter will not call her ... [ : - ) ]] Especially banks are to me not companies that can be run by an idiot, to refer to one of Mr. Buffett's quotes. They are more like one of the existing 20 Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit. Basically this thing can't fly, but you need that particular shape for a certain purpose, then you install highly advanced flight controls in the thingy so that it doesn't drop out of the sky for the pilot. For DANSKE, the command central appears properly staffed [Chairman], the flight control system installed in the plane [a competent management team - free of the money laundering case - referring to the CEO to come], -we just need the right pilot for the plane [the new CEO] before doing further. - - - o 0 o - - - Edit: If any of my fellow board members are up for some leisure reading, please look here. The full Bruun & Hjejle Report will be worth your time, no matter interested in DANSKE or not. Reading parts of it is almost like being a fly sitting on the wall of the board- & meeting rooms in DANSKE, listening. [ : - ) ]

Thank you very much, gfp, I would like to express that I consider it an enormous privilege to have you around here on CoBF and taking the time to explain this stuff. - Enjoy your Sunday! [ : - ) ]

nicke, alwaysinvert has earlier in this topic expressed that he consider this topic as a horse already beaten to death. Personally, I expect it to be alive & kicking for years! [ : - ) ] Basically, your question boils down to buying back shares from early Berkshire investors [or their estates] and foundations embraced by Mr. Buffett's gift pledges back in 2006, with amendments [as I read your question]. Only Melinda & Bill Gates Foundation [of them] has a shareholder size, so it's subject for regulatory filing. [it's different for early investors on the Berkshire Board, controlling & owning Berkshire stock.] So, by logic, you'll see the information no later than in the next 10-Q, ref. the Berkshire 2018 10-K, p. K-29, ref. "Total number of shares purchased as part of publicly announced program" [inverted].

Going by actuarial tables, average 88 year male has ~87% chance of living another year and ~40% of another five years. Odds for women are around ~50% for living another 5 year. Being a billionaire with a very different lifestyle, more resources than average person and going by experience of CM, Buffet may have more than 50% chance of working at BRK for another 5-7 year. That will require deployment of another 120-150 billion in addition to the existing cash pile. So hopefully more than one giant elephant especially if we hit downturn in next few years. Somehow, this discussion is getting a bit morbid, right? Somehow, I'm OK with that, and yet not. [somehow, it's age related for each of us, and for my part, financial planning related to death in separate generations in our families started about six years ago. It's an incredibly hard topic to handle inside a family in the family open, for the future.] valueinvesting101's last post contain - at least to me - a logical flaw : To be the CEO and Chairman of Berkshire does not require you only to be alive - it requires you to be fit & proper. [so cut back on valueinvesting101's probabilities.]

Thank you very much, gfp, I have a specific question for you, related to the matter just discussed in this topic. July 24th 2018 you posted the following in the "Buffett/Berkshire - general news" topic [link to post]: I have tried to reverse engineer the URL to find those filings for later periods, unfortunately so far to no avail for me. So, how do I look them up at the SEC website? - Thank you in advance.

Yahoo Finance [April 3rd 2019] : Warren Buffett: Banks will be worth more money 10 years from now. Mr. Buffett on banks and the concept of Circle of Competence [short clip].

Welcome back, Swedish_Compounder, Yes, exactly. Buybacks is only a part the whole allocation task at Berkshire. Last time I made a calculation about JPM, I think I ended up with Berkshire could put about USD 30 B to work by building a full 10 percent position in JPM.

I'm sorry - my bad, Cigarbutt, I think you should be able to read the article by triangulating this FT Tweet.

Financial Times [April 2nd 2019] : Saudi Aramco’s not-so-humble brag. I do not recall having seen any financial data for this company before. -What a sucker! [ 0_0 ]

In short, noone, Jeff. - - - o 0 o - - - CoBF is just a truly great place.

Personally, I have tried to do my very best to do exactly that - in this topic, recently. - Now I think I'll just let it go from here. [some days, I think about if there are major flaws in my English communication here on CoBF ... ]

What has the above with your stock picking to do?

Here, I'm sorry for double posting. Basically, this is set up by Orchard as an *OR* in the current environment. Now, how about the alternative *AND* [by doing both: - Saving AND investing]. Personally, I think it depends a lot about who you are and where you live, and what you're willing to do long term at the expense of short term sacrifices, [in the meaning : Under which local circumstances with regard to taxes etc.].

There is still the option - if one starts with a lump sum - basically no matter what size [however size of that lump sum naturally matters for the whole entry to stock picking] - to average in. It creates - over time - a shock absorber - both directions - in the beginning fairly much, later in the process less, - naturally on both your gains and your losses, and if you have made it realistic based on actual and personal circumstances with regard to duration, and do it with mathematical coherence, & determined as a "rule to get in" - you will eventually get invested by your stock picks, - over time. In short, you may end up by starting to buy the index to get stuck/"hung" eternally there, because the index becomes a "sleeping pillow" for you, in that case in your "socalled stock picking endavour". Personally, back then for me - now about 6½ years from now - I personally did that - starting averaging in. I haven't regretted it for one moment. Basically it is about what Mr. Taleb and others call "skin in the game" - personally - to me - it translates to: "If you don't actually practice, you'll never get better at it than you are right now". [<- In the extreme situation of starting with buying the index, you have absolutely no knowledge about if you're good, bad, or even personally a fit for stock picking.]

cherzeca, In short, I agree on the first emphasized part of your post above, ref. my earlier original post. I'm reluctant at elaborating further here - because of fear of participating in or triggering to derail this topic about the Brexit. This also applies for the second part of your last post emphasized by me above, ... but just even more.

cherzeca, Wikipedia : List of currencies in Europe. This article is actually a bit confusing because of its level of detail, but anyway, reading the first paragraph of the article fairly states the overall picture. So my personal answer to your direct question would be : "Non integral". But the Euro is by far the dominating currency in Europe. However that does not in general put constraints on intra-European trade [at least not here in Denmark, where I live]. Here, hedging your currency positions and currency cash flow, is a part of ordinary course of business in any company of decent size with a finance department with respect of itself. - - - o 0 o - - - In a broader sense, there is also a cultural and emotional dimension of Brexit, I think. Nations Online - Interactive Map of European States. - - - o 0 o - - - The whole thing is more about how much gravel will be thrown into a well functioning & existing European trading system & structure. - - - o 0 o - - - Thank you for being open minded, cherzeca.

There exists an investment universe outside the S&P 500 companies. [ : - ) ]

rolling, Just to get a better understanding of your last post here and its backdrop: If I remember correctly from your prior posts here on CoBF, you are a Portuguese citizen. Is my recollection correct? -Thank you. [ : - ) ]

Castanza, A very belated welcome to you from me here on CoBF! [ : - ) ] - - - o 0 o - - - This whole topic is to me somehow void. CoBF isen't a "democracy" in its ordinary sense, ref. the poll attached to this topic [which I'll not take]. CoBF is a privately held, run, moderated & managed board for value investors, run & operated by Sanjeev Parsad. Me, stating that CoBF is not a "democracy" does not imply, that CoBF is the direct inversion of a democracy. This is about the personal properties of the guy keeping the whole place alive, up running & kicking. - - - o 0 o - - - - If one reads the board carefully - a decision was made approx. August 2017, based on ongoing discussion here on CoBF, to split "politics". I haven't read one complaint here on CoBF about this. - - - o 0 o - - - So in short, Castanza - I'm sorry to say - you need to do a lot more of reading here on CoBF to get a feeling how things work around CoBF.