John Hjorth

Lack of or weak ability to predict future climate change in existing models for climate change aren't making the issue at hand [man made climate change, not just climate change] existent or not. You have to make a risk assessment on the matter at hand, because we have only one Earth. The risk connected to climate change is like going all in on one stock on margin, and then getting it wrong, albeit if you screw up with debt, you perhaps have the option to get debt relief by some legal procedure. For climate change there is no "Undo" button like in MS Word or MS Excel. There is an element of potential moral hazard to the issue also, because those who are in risk for being the subjects & victims of getting this wrong are the future generations of the human species. A bit like getting exactly that extra kid, that you actually knew that you would not be able to satisfactory provide for, impacting in a negative way not only the childhood for that child, but also for the elder siblings of that child, your spouse and yourself. Nassim Taleb et. al. : Climate models and precautionary measures. &

wabuffo, I think this should be measured on a relative [position size in percentage] basis. The Wedgewood LPs have withdrawn substantial capital over a period, ref. what longinvestor and I have posted earlier in this topic. I have made no calculations on it though, and I don't intend to.

Writser is being "nasty" here, in a a constructive way. It is about the "real" truth. It is about loosing confidence, based on languishing, geriatrical based, fading of capabilities. Taboo, and hard to discuss. Doubt and distrust eventually towards the Berkshire board also. Very hard to discuss. [ : - ) ]

Personally, I would really appreciate such a topic in the "Personal Finance" forum, for inspiration, and for structured discussion and sharing of thoughts on this matter at hand. I really hope someone here on CoBF will take the intiative [someone, who has practical experience with it, and/or has given it intensive consideration - perhaps gfp and/or Cigarbutt? [ : - ) ]]. - - - o 0 o - - - Back to topic.

I wonder what the conditions were in those promissory notes. [ :- ) ] Transfer of non-cash generating assets to the kids at low prices. - - - o 0 o - - - When I was young, I had a boss, that when he was young was serving a client - a lawyer of high age, who was wealthy. Because of high earnings combined with frugality he had become wealthy by buying real estate. He had started deliberately & gradually transferring properties to his kids, starting with the properties with the most louzy cash flow first, some even with negative cash flow, because of the mortgages. My boss asked him why he did so [The lawyer was old and alone. He had lost his wife, who had passed away.] His answer was : "That way I'm sure that my kids still visit me!" [ ; - D]

Thank you, Greg, -Actually, I think you have no idea how much I appreciate your push-back and skepticism towards being invested in Berkshire long term. For my part, it's actually not a bet on Mr. Buffett, nor Mr. Munger [it's a quite morbid bet actually - none of those gents will last forever]. It's more a bet on that "the system " [after those gents] will not only endure, but also prosper. - Some days, I feel extremely confident it will , and others not so much. - Right now, it's absolutely no given, at least to me ... time will tell. But when we discuss about Berkshire long term here on CoBF, I really think it's not about Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Munger [morbid as it may seem]. More like about continued cash flow generation, combined with astute/reasonable capital allocation. [No existing Buffett/Munger patents on the last part]. In short, & to me, we need to let go of this "Buffett/Munger" angle, if we look at Berkshire [really] long term. To me, this kind of "Buffet/Munger" angle - long term - is a special kind of anchoring [if not just a real bias, that confuscates any real judgement]. - - - o 0 o - - - Did I get away with posting this? - I'll check up on it tomorrow [ : - ) ]

Greg, what's your time horizon here? -If you think carefully about it, really! - what does then matter -real long term?

This is a great take on the whole market price situation for Berkshire over time, wabuffo, Thank you for sharing.

Please take a look at the Dataroma history for Wedgewood, especially the evolution of portfolio value over time. It appears obvious to me, that Mr. Rolfe is experiencing the nightmare of a money manager working with non-permanent capital, combined with LPs reaction to historical lack of performance, thus pulling out. Please also note the relative position rank of Berkshire over time in the history.

Thank you for taking the intiative to this topic, wisowis, Original source [<- Maybe not a bad thing to spend time on, if you're "Berkshire-bored" [ ; - ) ]] - Among other things you'll miss out on if not grabbing the original source is a quite funny picture placed somewhere in the quotations made by wisowis! [ : - D] - - - o 0 o - - - No Wedgewood 2019Q3 portfolio data available right now on Dataroma, btw. I haven't checked if the 13-F/HR is available on SEC.

A proposal could be to tune in on The Kara Sea and what's going on there.

Frankly, I've been waiting for months now to observe this happen! [ : - D ] Viking's modus operandi : Stay out in the weeds, and then step in on the stage, when just about everybody is leaving at near maximum negativism. -And pretty evident to me, that Viking knows FFH very well, after following or being long FFH for many years.

Please keep talking! - It's a cosy read! [ : - D ] - - - o 0 o - - - When I turned the sharp corner of 40 [now many years ago], I felt soo pitty for my self [about getting old], that I spent about DKK 100 K on a B&O installation in the house. [Panick?][Pretty much so that the only places where there were no music direct available were the places where you take your dumps & showers, & where you get your sleep & sex.] - - - o 0 o - - - Where are we now? : In general, no music in the house. Both the Lady of the House and I are avid readers [like the calme], but actually also like to listen to music - I need to shape up here, to get it going again! - - - o 0 o - - - Today, I noted, the OP in this topic [[now, former] CoBF member ajc] has logged out for good. I'm feeling kind of sad about that. Relating to different wired minds is what makes you grow.

To me, this is really locally & industry dependant. Success in this space is all dependant on all kind of skills. Some have them, others not - outcomes seem to me to be dependant of that. To me, PE/VC is here to stay, but it's really not my kind of stuff, personally. Disclosure : I'm invested in PE long term, by BAM [bBU indirectly] and Swedish Investor AB, [which just recently IPO'ed [successfully] EQT [<- !]]

Competition Policy International [October 2nd 2019] : US: Hyundai, Kia sue four biggest railroads.

Det systememiske risikoråd [October 1st 2019] : Recommendation - Increase of the countercyclical capital buffer rate. ["Det systemiske risikoråd" translates from Danish to : "The Systemic Risk Counsel] Definition af "recommendation" in this context : - - - o 0 o - - - Finans.dk [september 29th 2019] : FSA CEO [Jesper Berg] : Supervisory director Jesper Berg's daughters curse their father far away: "It's financial stability at stake" I suppose Jesper Berg's daughters can't get a mortgage because of their fathers - so far successful - interventions in the Danish mortgage underwriting.

Thanks for clarifying, Read the Footnotes, I'm on a Win PC using Chrome. I've tried to grab one of the iPads in the house, too, still no-go.

+1! - I'm desperate to vote! - I hope you can edit the poll, Read the Footnotes [i suppose you've set it to be open for a very short time span].

Somebody must be out of their friggin' mind here. This will create totally random casualties among investors. Now we just need to see "Decree # XXXX" on resolutions from the POTUS, and we'll be "full circle". Something similar vented about US [and non-US!] ADRs based on Russian stocks, I think it was last year [just the other way around]. Trump derangement syndrome has a totally different inherent meaning to me than to so many others.

We f##ked! SD First time in life where I have seen this English grammar being right! [ ; - D ]

Per, How about BOL.PA - Bolloré SE. Still part of something bigger, but at least an interesting stab at it. Bolloré - Electricity storage and systems. Vincent Bolloré has poured several hundred M EUR into it over the years from his cash cow [the logistics business], and he [and now one of his sons, Cyrill] is not going to give up on it.

In short - CoBF at its best - members helping members!

Producing Wind turbines is a mediocre business at best. I looked at Vestas a while ago and didn’t see a reason to get exited. Agreed - but everything in the wind farm business is mediocre. Per public markets, the choices are either the utilities using them - or the turbine makers themselves. Different types of business. Turbines pollute (noise, aesthetics, etc). Viable locations are limited, and damage suits are working through the system. Hence utilities have a long tail risk, that must be included. Turbine makers not so much. Turbines are two businesses. Once/done construction, and erection/decommission + repair/maintenance. When the industry is growing the money's in construction, when its mature it's in servicing. Break everything down into flat-packs, and ship by the thousands to extract economies of scale. Asia (& therefore Asian manufacturers) has a material advantage. Easier to override public objections, cleaner air/water quicker - by leapfrogging o/g and coal as a fuel source, and lots of sparsely populated windblown desert/plains to put them in. For every 1 'western' turbine, maybe 2-3 Asian turbines are being installed. And not just in Asia. The problem is time to market development. These are FUTURE cash flows - that must be discounted at a high rate to reflect the uncertainties. Current NPV is negative to marginal - at best. Hence the industry subsidization. You don't get rich, your kids do. SD Like Per said initially, coal is now dead. In short, we are at an inflection point, called "no subsidies" for this kind of energy production. "Alternative assets", "Green energy", "Green world", "Carbon free energy" etc. etc. is "the new black". It has "Potential disaster" painted on it all over. The folly has already started. The guys and girls operating in this space now are to me the "traditional" O&G bugs of the future. I try to stay disciplined here, however I must say I've been tempted from time to time. Let me give a few examples : 1. Danish Ørsted A/S was the first winner of an auction for offshore wind energy providing no subsidies. If I remember correctly, this was a Dutch auction. The bid was made based on technology, that at the time of the bidding didn't exist. There was a clause on the bid determining a break-up fee [again, to the best of my recollection] of DKK 842 M to walk away from the contract. This is certainly not doing business the prudent way. But is it reckless? [i will provide sources by linking, if any CoBF member asks me to.] 2. One of the two predecessors to Vestas Wind Systems A/S [VWS.CPH] [called NEG Micon A/S] basically was broke at one point in time, because of gears breaking down in nacelles. It was saved by a capital injection of DKK 250 M from Schouw & Co. A/S [sCHO.CPH]. Later, the merged entity was on the verge of failure, because of too optimistic plans [executed on] for global expansion called "triple fifteen" [Fifteen EUR B in turnover in '15, operational margin of 15 percent in '15]. Schouw & Co. A/S missed out on a large [undisclosed] acquisition because of this [Mentioned by SCO.CPH CEO Jens Bjerg Sørensen in a 2017 interview], because the VWS share has tanked to 27 [Mr. Sørensen's acquisition currency before capital gain tax][now at 551.60], where the proceeds from the sale of the VWS shares were the currency, so he couldn't execute. [All hindsight bias, yes, but business culture has its own way to get passed on internally.] To me, & today, three Swedish industrialists saved VWS and made it to what it is today. Ditlev Engel was a doughnut as CEO, out of control by the board back then. [Again, I'll provide links to sources, if any CoBF member needs it.] 3. The then CEO of Ørsted A/S, Anders Eldrup [the predecessor of Henrik Poulsen], who built & formed the foundations of the Ørsted A/S today [then called DONG Energy A/S], broke his neck [as CEO of Ørsted] also on being too expansive, so a financing issue appeared, initiating his ousting by the Ørsted board. 4. I've posted about Radius [a major part of the Sealand power grid here in Denmark] has been put up for sale by Ørsted A/S recently in the BAM topic here on CoBF. The political Denmark has vetoed out any potential buyer related to alternative asset management, based on what Australian Mcquarie has done with Copenhagen Airport, TDC & cum/ex deals on Danish companies. Now who skated away with Radius this week?: A regional Danish [consumer owned] energy company called SEAS-NVE, based out of Sealand [the Danish island where Copenhagen is situated at the east coast], who got shares in Ørsted A/S in the first place for its contribution in kind years ago to the formation of Dong Energy A/S, now called Ørsted A/S. The share price of Ørsted simply has left the atmosphere - "it doesn't matter - because our currency to pay in are the proceeds from our Ørsted shares". - - - o 0 o - - - Long burp short : Take care.

US Department of Energy : 2018 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report. The party is just about to begin in the US. There is a tremendous amount of work to do, and ditto capital to deploy.

Thank you for sharing, Per, Yes, a [frigging] lot is going on nowadays. Equinor is not the most boring company to follow in that regard.