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Everything posted by John Hjorth
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What happened to European stocks starting April 2015?
John Hjorth replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
rb, That would be the day! [Well, at least intentionally!] Tomorrow, I'll review my settings, to get this right! -I'm so embarrassed about this as of right now. Personally, I'm very happy to see you back active here on CoBF! -
What happened to European stocks starting April 2015?
John Hjorth replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
They went upwards, like everything else. -
I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
John Hjorth replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
Jeff, Thanks! [sometimes, threats actually work! - With regard to humor, it's still terrorism, but in a harmless way - And terrorists aren't to be relied on! - See CoBF tomorrow - nag-nag!] -
I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
John Hjorth replied to doughishere's topic in General Discussion
None since November 8th 2019? - Really? - If there aren't anyone, I'll post tomorrow about my migration from a Samsung S4 to an iPhone 11 Pro Max around Christmas. [Consider yourself warned.] - - - o 0 o - - - Please wake up, you buggers! -
211 votes as of now. [i suppose for 2019 we won't come even close to the number of votes reached for 2018 - 264 votes.]
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Negative interest rates take investors into surreal territory
John Hjorth replied to Viking's topic in General Discussion
Boersen.dk [February 5th 2020] : Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S [RILBA.CPH] CEO John Fisker : "Negative interest on deposits sends bank customers on cottage hunting: "It's not because I stand and want to sell real estate". It makes a lot of sense to me, if the customer is affluent. Great time of the year to be a buyer in that particular market here in Denmark. Not sure though, if it's a great time to be a buyer in that particular market, taking the whole & overall picture right now into consideration. Instead of suffering from minus 0.75 percent annually, plus the drag from inflation [YoY ~1.5 percent here in Denmark as of now], why not get at least some joy out of the capital, perhaps even some rental income from the season, if you're not there in that period? [Like rkbabang has done recently.] No matter the entry point and time of entry during the cycle [well, almost], this kind of capital allocation will likely kill holding cash dearly long term. -
New Green Elephant Edition on its way - [Amazon ETA February 20th 2020][ - And no, I don't think I'm hallucinating [ <- [ ; - D]]]. - - - o 0 o - - - longinvestor, there is nothing forcing you to buy it. [ : - ) ]
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Greg, I do, and for for 2019, I must just say, that I've failed personally - miserably - for 2019. It's about misallocation of effort and time, based on complentancy, instead of trying to keep some overall structure what to do and when - based on the theme "I'll fix that tomorrow...", instead of handling the task now! When I was younger, and much, much more hungry, I would spend the time between Christmas & New Year, to create a specific target list [with regard to specific [named] potential new clients to go for], in the new year, with follow-up, next year [name specific success rate, based on specific target list, measured YoY]. - - - o 0 o - - - I suppose, I'm just getting old & "self-fat".
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What does it matter to us?
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...economic theory suggests the share prices of “sin” businesses will become depressed if a large enough proportion of investors choose to avoid them. Such stocks would have a higher cost of capital because they would trade at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, thus providing investors with higher expected returns. ...as more investors express their personal beliefs through their investments, shunning sin stocks, it seems likely their prices would be further depressed, further raising their forward-looking return expectations. Thus, it is possible the sin stock premium (relative to the market) could not only persist, it could increase... https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-sin-stocks-are-profitable?nopaging=1 +1 If you're holding for the long-term, you don't need a re-rating if you have a low multiple and you, or the company, can reinvest those earnings at a sufficiently high return. If you're getting a 20% return per annum by buying a company at 5x it's earnings - you don't need it to relate relative to it's book or earnings. Just that those earnings continue to be retained and redeployed at attractive returns OR paid out as a dividend for you to reinvest for more shares. No turnover. No transaction charges. Few taxes. And 20+% compounded pending how well you/company did on reinvesting the earnings. The problem is precisely when it DOES re-rate and then you need to pay to sell it, pay the taxes on it, and find another opportunity worthy of the capital. I agree totally with TwoCitiesCapital here. If you have a high reported ROE combined with a low P/E at the point in time of purchase, you don't really need some kind of rerating, nor even expected/projected growth in the investment, to get good returns. If you actually can see growth, more icing on the cake. The issue at hand is, that the combination of a high ROE and low P/E for an investment almost always imply, that there is "some hair" on the investment, that one has to relate to. There are not two persons who have the same limit for start puking for "hair", on individual "hairy" investments, nor the identical ability to stomach total amount of "hair" on total portfolio level. That part of it is about individual position sizing.
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Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 217.]
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Perhaps it's time to take a closer look at something like : Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited [J36.SI] &/or Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited [J37.SI]. [Perhaps not.]
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
John Hjorth replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Personally, I'll second redskin's question whole-hearted. I can't remember the sources any longer, and I've got no time to dig them up [perhaps it was actually posted by a fellow CoBF on here], but if I remember correctly, Berkshire has asked for permission not to reduce its position in BAC below 10 percent, while it continues to reduce its position in WFC. Please correct me if I'm wrong, and if I'm not wrong [i may be], what do you get out that? I mean, perhaps, with regard to the forced WFC selling at Berkshire, it may be considered at Berkshire's convenience in the situation. [No kick-a** one-liners from Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Munger for years about WFC being a "good bank" - perhaps for a reason.] -
Given the divergence BRK has actually starting creeping up my list of "attractive" investments the last few weeks/months. I hate the inaction and cash build, but given the circumstance, if anything, I would adjust the lens I look through and perhaps see it as a way to maintaining a modest, but impactful access point to investing if reasonably priced equities. Even if they hold AAPL to eternity, the huge cash surplus balances out the volatility in the portfolio, should there be any. I do think the above conversation reveals one thing; it may be great that companies are paying out more. Definitely! But at around 100% payout for the average company, the things RuleNumberOne has been harping on, like earnings and revenue growth, will really start to matter. Given that the future valuations will be dependent upon this...it is hard not to argue that we arent getting very much if any margin of safety at these prices. Koompaya! [ ;-) ] You'll never get a cash dividend from BRK as long as Mr. Buffett is [still] around.
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Where is Jay Powell, is he dead or alive?
John Hjorth replied to RuleNumberOne's topic in General Discussion
What does it matter? [Does it matter to your buying decisions?] The CoBF members are stock pickers. -
Multi-Bagger Opportunities With Realistic Positive Outcomes
John Hjorth replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
This may be true, but everyone involved in this game pretty much have to stomach the risk. To me, it's certainly not for everyone. -
Dealing with Neighbors Who Are Heavy Pot Smokers
John Hjorth replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
LC, Personally, I've never really understood your motivation for your move years ago from NYC to Denver, Colorado. I mean : All that snow shoveling in the winters. Well, I think I - at least partly - understand it now. Everything in life is about decision making among alternatives, based on judged pros & cons for the alternatives. [ : - ) ] -
Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 209.]
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I wonder how rich would I be if I was the one introduced to Buffet back then and we hit it off? Much richer for sure. LOL Back then, if I was introduced to Buffett and somehow became his partner(how/why in the hell, don't know), investors would certainly not have become as rich as they are now, ha! I just received this book today, after ordering it at a Danish book store about a couple of weeks ago. Somehow - right now - I don't feel richer.... - After carefully analyzing the whole situation of why I feel so, I finally found the answer : I got the book in Mandarin Chinese version .... [ : - / ] - Back it goes.
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Dealing with Neighbors Who Are Heavy Pot Smokers
John Hjorth replied to BG2008's topic in General Discussion
Many years ago, I read an ad on Cragslist, going like this: "NAG, NAG, NAG : HD Fat Boy for sale - mint condition - for sale - cheap! - I have to let it go, because of FAT, NAGGING wife... Please call me at at xxx-xxxx to give me an offer." <Picture of the very nice bike attached>. - - - o 0 o - - - Since then, I've always been thinking about what would happen if this guy back then had a subscription to Craigslist laying around in the restroom, if she was reading his stuff in the restroom ... - - - o 0 o - - - Somehow, it's all about peaceful co-existence ... -The higher the local population density is, the more demanding it is! You start with buying a home, and you may end up selling the neighbours. [- to the next greater fool?] -
kab60, Nothing ever come easy. With a serial acquirer, based on strong operational execution & proved capital allocation skills, you'll never get over the question: "What is the next one, and how will that one look like for me?" It's just a part of the game, if you invest in [to me, great] stuff like this [bERY].
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
John Hjorth replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Yes, Dynamic, & thanks, Ravi Nagarajan is a Buffett & Munger fan, a Berkaholic & a great thinker. I really enjoy reading his stuff on his blog, and on Twitter his frequent musings and thoughts about what's going here, there & everywhere, including in the FinTwitosphere. -
Welcome to CoBF, generalsandworkouts! [ : - ) ]
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Daniels story in the book about undaunted buying a Berkshire Hathaway share for USD 2,570 in the yearly '80's to get meeting credentials for the Berkshire AGM is still one of my favorite Berkshire stories. -Mind you, a ticket that has kept on giving and giving!
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What writser does - and gets away with, somehow always has been a mystery to me! [Congrats to some outstanding returns over the years & congrats on the family extension!] - - - o 0 o - - - CoBF is however pretty relentless : Have you looked into : EAC.CPH recently? [Your game!]