Spekulatius

You realize that the EU lost 67M people due to Brexit? US population is up more than 10% in that timeframe. The increase per capita of the US vs EU is way less impressive. Also, if the EU is to blame, why isn’t the UK doing better since Brexit? It’s the perfect natural experiment, imo. I do agree the EU has a problem, but a lot of these hot takes are deceiving, imo. Checking in, you get another 15-20% explained by exchange rate movement. In 2008, the Euro was at 1.5 USD at the beginning and 1.28 at the end. Not sure which one is right here, but if I take the average and compare to 1.08 at YE 2023, I can explain another ~20% of the difference. And no, inflation does not explain the change in exchange rate. The Euro was overvalued in 2008 and is undervalued now. If you don’t believe me, travel to Europe and compare prices.

Yes. I think it’s multiple exceeds now 100x earnings.

This thing hit 80x earnings and 30x revenues. Sorry folks, but it had to be done,

Bought a bit of BNR (Brenntag) as a limit order hit overbite in Europe.

Since 2010. I found it because it was one the few 5* rated banks in CA after the GFC. They had absolutely no credit problems despite their home banking area getting devastated in the RE crash. RE went down more than 50% in the Lodi/ Central Valley area. It took me a while to find why that was the case. The stock right now trades at lower multiples than back in 2010, go figure.

Sentiment is so bad that it‘s time to look at and buy European equities. You heard it here first.

Fascinating:

FMCB is a fantastic run OTC traded bank trading for a very reasonable price. I bought a decent position (for me). Their niche is agricultural loans. They bought back a nice amount of shares (~5% outstanding) from an estate at a discount to prevailing market prices. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1085913/000114036124043159/ef20036803_8k.htm

Just give Taiwan some nukes. Makes the world a safer place.

Lol, there go Chinese stocks - down another 2% or so. I wonder if Tepper is still in his generational trade. BABA is down pretty much where I sold it and that was before the stimulus package was announced. There will be more opportunities to trade stonks. Trump is making volatility great again.

Trump tariffs everything (including luxury goods), China targets luxury goods from Europe in retaliation for EV tariffs. US luxury and consumer goods targeted by China with tariffs and social shaming.

One thing that is clear is that Europe needs its own nukes long term and I don’t mean nuclear power plants. It’s one lesson Putin will draw is that nuclear black mail works and if Trump pulls back support from NATO, Europe needs its own nuclear cover. The countries that need it most though are South Korea (they will be blackmailed by Kim soon enough) and Taiwan, followed by Japan. This is true even more so with people like Elon Musk with their “longtermism “ having access to US government. I’d recommend reading up on long termism.

When the body hits concrete.

Regarding perception versus reality:

$112 - the stock is now a double for me. Not a large position, but now I can cheer Go $Bro! I also made some friends along the way. Results look very good to me: https://investor.bbinsurance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/brown-brown-inc-announces-third-quarter-2024-results-including

Still going:

I love soup dumplings. Might be worth the bike ride.

I added to APA and BP. These valuation of these energy shitcos is too cheap resist. I think BP will sooner or later move to the US and become US Petroleum

I think any stimulus is likely go toward individuals and smaller business. Xi Jinping doesn’t have much of a track record helping large business, except some state controlled industries or those that fit his economic agenda. I don’t see Temu working well in the US going forward but that’s perhaps already priced in.

Thanks. I wasn’t aware of this. This was kept as is by democrats and I don‘t think there was an intent to change it.

Women’s get taxed higher than men. I like it.

No, they are going to put tariffs on agricultural goods and a few other things. The problem the Chinese have is that they export so much more than they import that anything they do to counter tariffs can’t reciprocate. If you look Mr Market seems to anticipate this scenario already, because agricultural good related business have not participated in the Trump rally at all. FWIW, Farmers vote for Trump, but it’s likely that his policies are not good for them at all. This is nothing new, same was the case in 2016.

Yeah, it was in the Value after hour podcast. I think it’s a good one. Toyota owns a piece of it already and they collaborate on an all the hybrids power trains. They may decide to take them out.

Valued Ok for the stagnant business it has become.

Since we were discussion regulation in Europe, here is proof that it’s not all the EU’s fault: