Spekulatius

Bought some regional bank stocks $EBC and $CATY. I also added to $CABO

I actually agree that Pepsi for example is not price gauging. you can read their earnings releases. They just managed to pass on the cost increases (give or take) and their profit grew with inflation basically (9%).

I think this article is a bit misleading. There is more than meets the eye. $1.3B was a "deferred EPL charge" (what ever that is, but it looks like non-cash). Harbour had quite a bit of FCF. Taxes actually paid were a fraction of the nominal tax indicated.

If you grab a handful of ketchup single packs from your local McDonald (of course without dining there), then there is no inflation When times are really tough, I go there for inspiration: http://www.bumwine.com/compare.html The Fed can also deflate stonks so we can buy more of them. That also helps with inflation.

I also think the Fed is in the "business" to impact peoples and by extension the business behavior to transmit their monetary policies. That's why Powell and the other Fed governors do these talks and the Fed publishes their notes and all those things. If the Fed truly believed that behavioral aspects don't matter or they can't influence them, then they would do nothing of this sort and just raise or cut interest rates or change monetary policies without comments or pre- announcements. That's clearly not what they are doing.

I think if you believe in God, you may as well believe in Santa Claus. You don't need god for anything - how life started out, to explain the Universe, or the foundation of ethics. Santa Claus is a convenient and comfortable belief for 4 year old and god or religion is convenient and comforting belief for adults. I also think ethics are developed evolutionary both on a biological as well as on a societal level. For example it is human (or mamal) instinct to care for our young, because it makes evolutionary sense to do so. If we would be a species that is programmed (by evolution) to eat the weak younglings to let the strong survive, the ethics of a society that this species develops, would likely indeed condone and reward this practice.

Oops: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/windfall-tax-wipes-north-sea-120711857.html

Great podpast here from odd lots regarding pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/corporate-earnings-calls-provide-clues-on-inflation-odd-lots-podcast?srnd=oddlots-podcast#xj4y7vzkg "Price over volume" seems to be the new corporate mantra.

As to why Cheetoh's went up in price - listen to this oddlot's podcast. The new corporate mantra is "Price over volume". It means that companies started to rise prices even if they lose some volume. There are a lot of examples cited: Pepsi (double digit price increases), Wingstop (raised prices when chicken wings wholesale price went up and didn't lower them when they went down), Hotels (occupancy down compared to 2019, prices up), Cruises (same) . You can also look at energy (crude) or automobile (less supplies, higher prices). The list goes on and on. It's not just limited to consumer goods, it happens in industrial markets or services as well. This will end when the consumer / customers start to push back presumable. So far that has not happened yet. Another thing to note - people and business are now already conditioned to see price increase and don't push back as much any more. This shows that inflation has a strong behavioral aspect. in other words we have already sticky inflation that creeps up in many, if not most goods and services. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/corporate-earnings-calls-provide-clues-on-inflation-odd-lots-podcast?srnd=oddlots-podcast#xj4y7vzkg

@changegonnacome Yes, that’s correct. Inflation is a flat tax on everyone and we know where tax checks go. Inflation is the government way to silently reduce liabilities and obtain more taxes at the same time.

@longterminvestor Thx for the comment. I wasn’t really following this story closely, but it was clear Berkshire had the inside track in this deal. let’s also not forget that this happened in a choppy market, some of Allegheny’s equity holding were affected, so with a fair bid from Berkshire at hand that sure is going to close, it was hard for an outside to make much more compelling bid.

LOL, it's like playing Jumanji when you get your renewal letter:

I take the opposite side on this. I think it will take a long time until Russian stocks trade again in western markets.

I think it's too early to draw conclusion from the investigation. My guess is that if the Ukrainian pro government organization was indeed involved, it wasn't done with the Ukrainian authorization. The reason is simple - the truth on these type of things do come out and pot. down side too highvs the pot gain (as we see now). The pipeline wasn't really all that important - it was idle and was supposed to remain so. I thought it was a russian psy operation with the intend to create fear in the west , but that does not seem that likely now. We do not even know if the leak is true, but it does come from sources that have been credible in the past (major German TV station). If it turns out that the Ukrainian government was involved, then Ukraine will lose a lot of support in the Germany and likely the rest of Europe as well.

Interesting results from Nordstream leak investigating from credible sources: Seems like a pro Ukrainian group was involved.

In every war in the last 100+ years, nations went into it unprepared and vastly underestimated what they needed to produce and move to keep the front lines supplied. I think every war is entered with the assumption (spoken out or not) that it only last a few weeks or at most month and that just isn’t the case any more. Wars tend to last longer nowadays and they are typically won by those who can outproduce and get their material to the front lines (logistics) in time. I think it was a General Bradley who said that the war in Europe was won by Victory cargo ships , Jeeps and Mack trucks. Germany had none of these, stuff was moved often by railroad and horses, believe it or not in WW2.

Sector rotation. They were hot last year, this year not so much. Don’t ask me why. There are some pockets where COVID-19 hangover exists from lower demand. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines are one example, but it also effects testing equipment and some clinical research business.

Added a bit to LSXMK and more to $BTI. Also a starter in $PKBK (cheap and very profitable NJ microcap bank with some hair).

Todays ad for me. I don't even want to find out where this leads to: Edit I swear this thing is mocking me now:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off. I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

Why are you so bullish on TV? Looks like the merger with MegaCPO is dead for the time being. (FWIW- I hold MegaCPO shares)

I have not clicked on anything, despite the tempting displays. The ad AI definitely watches what you are typing or elsewhere looking for. Ever since I have researched and purchased a car, i get bombed with car ads in youtube for example, but I have never seen a car ad here on this site.

The bad joke above aside, the ad targeting here on this side really blows. I don't know why the algo here thinks that I am target audience for female swimsuits. I would have expected some ads from Ken Fisher here or crypto scams. For while, I did get an ad for mail order brides from Ukraine, which at least makes some sense based on keywords that were discussed here in one thread.

Tough choices. I vote the deep discounted one on the right:

Could be currencies - if you do have foreign stocks