Spekulatius

Bought $PSA (self storage) for my MF and now self storage REIT basket. more $FI (Fiserv) Starter in $BILL and $WDAY

LOL, our tax dollar at work. Does the extra money spent get subtracted from DOGE savings ? ICE is going to be a monster organization when it’s all said and done, with a huge budget. They are probably employ more people than they deport.

Reduced $VNT a bit.

Bought $BRO, $MOH, $NVO ,$ ACVA, $SW.PA I am a dipshit buying dips.

I averaged up and doubled my share count here. I think $BRO is very reasonably valued here. The lower organic growth is a concern but there can be noise in any given quarter. I am betting they can continue to march on and generate good returns.

Sodexo $ SW.PA seems like a good idea - I bought a few shares: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SODEXO_S_A/4277177110 They spun off Pluxee a while ago, which has not done well. Pluxee is a better business fundamentally (capital light, has float) but is under the gun from regulators to reduce take rates and increase competition. Sodexo seems more durable and trades at a large discount to peers. There are some reasons for the discounts but I think they are larger than they deserve to be.

$BRO results are out. I noticed that organic growth has slowed to 3.6% YoY? It was high single digits 8n the forts quarter and double digits last year, I think the hard market in insurance is coming to a conclusion. Picked up a few more shares AH below $100 and I expect some weakness tomorrow.

Why does it matter if the track is one way or two way? If the ownership structure changes the track still remains the same. I agree it that putting all the track into under own ownership isn’t politically viable but it for sure would be more efficient and also stimulate competition, assuming a sensible fee structure for usage.

The trade deal looks like a win for Trump a loss the EU, There is some devil in the details , as there are exemptions form tariffs for aerospace products, chemicals . Also any final deal needs to be ratified by the majority of the countries. I am also not clear if the tariffs on steel and Aluminum products of 50% remain for imports from the EU also. As for buying products from the US, that is done by the individual countries not the EU. I think the stock markets will be mildly bullish about this but most was already priced in.

There is a nice map of the RR system here and indeed it seems any given territory has only 2 Rr competing with each other and the eastern RT (NSC, CSX ) barely have any overlap with the western ones (BNSF, UNP). CSX/ NSC have way more overlap than BNSF/UNP. So in away a merger between the eastern RR NSC and UNP makes sense but I think it will also force BNSF hand to do likewise with CSX https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=96ec03e4fc8546bd8a864e39a2c3fc41

I think this is true but the efficiency gains don’t go to customers. The rails have been taking pricing quite aggressively for many years. The best way to increase efficiency would be to spin the rail infrastructure to a National rail REIT and have everyone compete with their own trains on the same terms on the same rail network. Then the rails would be more similar trucking.

@Castanza A questions that has been haunting me ever since you posted this. Why did you not hire the Amish?

The long end bond market may not cooperate with lower short term rates but thee are ways to bend the curve (QE3). All these things likely mean lower USD.

Unfortunately, this is true: https://theonion.com/no-one-in-james-taylor-audience-has-functional-enough-knees-to-give-standing-ovation/?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLw4GNleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHiZ2UVMXY48ENDuE-Tm5xADArVSk3rpAcbgct3uKn3lP1-yawHcW76WFf_yn_aem_Zj5T7hvT0bhhOy68SzIyYA

Indeed. However i made ~15% without any risk due to earnings miss in a short period of time. Works OK for me.

Bought a bit more $FILA this AM. They will announce half years earnings in a couple of days so we will see how they do.

He talks a good book but can he walk throttle? Still TBD. Politics is mainly about people skills with common sense mixed in.

From the Money and macro channel - a good discussion about the impacts so far.:

Well foreigners sell the USD. The whole thing is an embarrassment quite simply. I think part of the reason for the cost overruns was Trump MAGA guys pushing for marble. The whole thing is just political theatre.

Clueless: The black dude didn’t get a hardhat either

A very good thing. The EU tries to strike a similar deal.

I see this exactly the same way and it happened to me many times that the stock went right away after I purchase a small position. Thats one reasons I have many small positions. I don’t mind it too much either.

Maybe this is what is greatly enhancing the user experience here recently:

I also bought a little $ELS today . I recently sold $SUI and it seems that $ELS trades at a similar valuation and has better assets, so I regard this as a free upgrade. I don’t think $ELS can be considered cheap though.

Bought a chunk of FILA this morning on the drop. I think Roak Capital has a SOP thesis out there based on their stake in DOM (Indian business they have a stake in).