Spekulatius

@Luca needs to move to China as the future there is so bright that one needs to wear shades. I said this before, what is preventing him from moving from a company with a crummy future like Germany to the rising empire or the East where common prosperity makes everyone rich, just like Karl Marx predicted.

Fact checking Peter Zeihan: I recommend following the Money and Macro Channel. This fellow seems pretty level headed and does a good job explaining economic topics. It should be outed that he has been predicting China surmised since 2010: https://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-1?IR=T

Very good summary of the historical background and the current situation in Argentina from Patrick Boyle:

I think the Saudi‘s set their price range too high encouraging other players like shale to come back. Shale was barely profitable at $80-$100 back in 2015 from a cash flow perspective and now the operators easily handle $70 and even $60. We also have China and Europe decarbonizing. The Chinese partly do this with their push for EV and alternative energy sources but also because their decade long construction boom has ended and construction uses plenty of energy. Then we have new oil exploration in South America where production is growing quickly. This all adds to a better balanced oil market with more diverse sources. The Saudis simply lost their market power and the more they cut the less they will matter the future.

Italy quits Belt and Road. They were the largest country in Europe to join a while ago but have now second thoughts m partly due to leadership change with the latest election: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-quits-belt-road-plan-064027543.html

I guess it may be time for another flush: I do not think the Saudi's will play this over again like in 2015, as it cost them dearly.

yes, just saw this news in SA. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4044429-kenvue-gains-amid-hearing-on-purported-tylenol-linkage-to-austism-in-children However in a way, this boatload shouldn't be there, KVUE slightly missed earnings and the stock isn't all that cheap either. I had hoped for a rebound in what looked like a technical selloff, but I think there were more fundamental reasons behind the selloff than I anticipated. Anyways, took a little gain and look for greener pastures.

Sold KVUE and reduced LUV a bit. KVUE was a whole lot more trouble than I thought, made a tiny bit money.

$NNI and $APA.

Bought a starter in APA, mostly because I think the value of their exploration assets in Suriname are not reflected fully in the valuation. Suriname is adjacent to Guyana and APA has a stake in two blocks 53 and foremost 58 where the latter is operated by Total (APA owns 50%) and has shown several gushers: https://geoexpro.com/the-suriname-guyana-basin/ https://investor.apacorp.com/static-files/cb0eb758-205d-406c-8af0-9f781d1a245c this will take some time to play out (years) but i think at some point continued exploration progress and development will start to get reflected more in the share price. Even discounting Suriname, APA looks quite cheap based on metrics

I have watched some of "China observer" clips on youtube and it is very biased and sensationalistic and I say this as someone who is very suspect of China CCP and their economic future.

My wife just showed me who the boss is - bought DVA at $78 an sold at $106.5 a few weeks later. She also bottom ticked $FMS a while ago and $BAX more recently. She just trades around dialysis stocks.

Looks like Fuso' Chemicals main business is Food additives and then the smaller business is Colloidal / nanocystalline Silica for polishing wafers. https://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/financialresults_en_231124.pdf FWIW, looks like their profit margins for the semi business is roughly 33% and actually topped out at 45% profit margins last year which really isn't that shabby.

The article is a bit misleading. While they raised some debt (no doubt at very favorable terms), they still have more cash than debt on the balance sheet. They also generate 25% operating margins which is not too shabby. Recently, the Bloomberg stories appear to get more and more distorted and resemble clickbait. When you look at FUSO chemicals financials it’s just does not seem to show the same picture than the article.

Just realized that Everything Everywhere all at once is available on Prime Video now. What a great movie and it fits the season: https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/amzn1.dv.gti.9d433401-4b4f-4737-9ec7-ce92e6b313f2?autoplay=0&ref_=atv_cf_strg_wb

The 4th season was weaker imo, but S5 again is hilariously great.

@nwoodman Amyl and the sniffers are pretty good. Their records sound a bit flat though (not unusual for punk rock) and I think live the energy comes across much better.

Jinxed it.

Trying again and bought a starter in CUERVO in two accounts to add to my Booze portfolio. The way I see it, it’s cheaper than it was in 2018 since revenues have grown by ~60% in USD. That said, I don’t like management here and I don’t think they have done a great job so far since the IPO but margins should improve due to Blue Agave cost coming down eventually. There is also a recent ill timed VIC writeup on this stock.

Yes, when you watched the documentaries about him- especially the last one “ Crock of Gold” you really wonder how he kept going as long as he did. Time to rewatch “Crock of Gold” in Hulu.

Fargo S5 is bloody good:

Looks like they had a bloody good time... https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcnninternational%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02H3jTcDCwruZEzEnkZVZ9ioEL5i7J1DJihYgVEzS98C9Hdbw6veivYNcsmpyGC7KRl&show_text=true&width=500"

Why would they stop this. Guyana is poor and going to a massive boom already, all fueled by energy investments. Suriname is in the same situation and looks like the O&G cos have been reasonable terms. This oil is going to flow as well. Venezuela has plenty off resources and cant even manage those - so the more difficult offshore fields will remain unexploited if they exist. But the rest is a go.

I think this offshore trend extends all the way from Venezuela to Brazil. $APA / Total already have several gushers in Suriname next to Guyana. PBR intends to drill in Brazillian offshore waters there. This will probably be a monster exploration area similar to shale in the USA. Opec better watch out or try to get this countries into their fold but in a way it wont matter, because for these countries, drilling for these resources is a no brainer.

Let me guess - the liver went first: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/entertainment/shane-macgowan-death-scli-intl