Spekulatius

Another interesting piece of information (if true)- upstarts overwhelmingly use Chinese AI models for two reason: 1) leaner and meaner ( cheaper to run) 2) They are open source rather than closed Sounds to me like OpenAI and the like have an issue as it’s likely they can never charge enough to pay for their Opex and Capex spent. Same happened with telecom equipment and components which went to China in 2001-2003 because they were good enough and much cheaper to produce there.

Bessent does claim that disease caused the meat shortage (also debatable and wrong) because migrants brought some of their cattle with them right there.

I guess you were not around in 1999/2000 then because there sure was a lot of talk about the bubble back then. 2006/2007 was different because is wasn’t a stock market valuation bubble , it was the financial system undermined by a real estate bubble popping and unsound practices.

LOL, they really do cater to idiots.

LOL:

That episode was not shown in the US. What damages can Trump sue for? The BBC has done a huge mistake here and damaged its reputation but it’s difficult for a Trump to prove damages here since it wasn’t shown in the US, imo.

Yes, but you can run LLM as sort of a human interface for Wolfram Alpha and then it becomes a different beast. Wolfram does math correctly. Thats where I think this is going. The LLM itself becomes a commodity tool but when you tie them up with domain specific software and/ data, you can create something very powerful that won’t become a commodity right away,

I don’t think this is correct, AI basically search repositories for similar code and then sort of stitches it together. So all the code that AI gives you has been written before. It is more or less a very good search engine for existing code in GitHub that is also able to guess parts and stitches it together. In my limited experience using it for coding and macros, it is very good and sort of finding what you need but you have to be careful how you put it together with other coding piece from AI or otherwise. it often messes up variables and the code pieces may have assumptions that incongruous with other code pieces it created before. it’s more of a building block generator for code than a coder itself. I found it helpful but you really need to check all this stuff. I have also seen it dot r math mistake because LLM fundamental don’t understand math either. Anyways, a that my limited understanding from my experience but ai really don’t code for a living, so take this with a grain of salt. Because of above, I think there is a limit how far LLM can go no matter how much computing power you throw at it and something else is needed to make further progress.

His answer is basically - “Our stock goes up.” Generating $13B in revenue with $1.3T in investments (paraphrasing a bit here) is going to be a classic. This is basically the “you got to dance while the music is playing moment”. He is not wrong either from his perspective. He is basically making OpenAI so big and entangled that it’s too large to fail and will be supported by other players in this AI spider web, if things go south. Just my guess, but the real winners of the AI boom will grow from the compost left from the first investment boom we are currently experiencing in a couple of years, .

This podcast from Galloway is preset good. the ghost is that we create ten billion $ in revenue with trillion $ investments right now. OpenAI is the prime example making $13 billion in ARR while talking about $ trillions plus in investments.

The US is run by lawyers too. Almost 40% of Congress and 50% of senate seats are occupied by lawyers. They are a giant leach on the system responsible for expensive healthcare (no tort reform) and bill board lawyers (increasing insurance costs ). Yet lawyers are only about 0.3% of the US population (~1.3M lawyers in the US). Where is DEI when you need it?

There are actually two of them, DJT and MTG. Also TDS works both ways, those that follow and get annoyed by all the nonsense he produces daily and those that believe he is a messiah. There is a middle ground somewhere in between.

These chips may still be marginally profitable and covering their cost of running (electricity) , especially since there is no depreciation any more. @beerbaron has a good point about technical obsolescence once the shortage of GPU capacity abides. If you don’t believe that NVDA will rapidly improve their GPU, then why is it worth $4.6T. Everyone can just run their 10 year old fully depreciated GPU‘s instead of buying new ones. Both cannot be true at the same time.

This week, I added a bit to AZE.BR, PYPL (bought back some shares I sold on the AI spike) and CSU. Bought a starter in TTD (maybe as a trade) as this stock looks reasonably valued and washed out.

Dealbreaker: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPjrQJOk0wo/?igsh=dnA4ZWhreXJvMzgy

The deep bench that @cubsfan is talking about

The Dictator - a movie that got better as it aged. Way better:

I think EMN is a better business as the recycling business competes less with China. However, I do like the chemical distributors better (BNR, AZE).

Crude prices down and gasoline and heating oil prices up for the year. Must be a glitch in the matrix: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline I am curious , any idea what happed here?

AI has reached the SPV age. Deja vue they not a new construct either. https://archive.ph/A40Fv $30B off balance sheet for Meta with full operational control.

Korean submarines for Canada, It looks like: https://canadiandefencereview.com/hanwha-ocean-signs-mou-with-pcl-construction-for-cpsp/

Europe is better of producing their owner fighter plane. they have build the Tornado, Eurofighter Typhoon. Europe would be stupid to become more depend on US weapons, for which support and spare parts may not be available one day.

Airbus itself is a pan European company. I guess the French see Rafael as their national champion and want to push for an outsized role. Brining the Uk in is not without precedence as they were involved in prior European fighter projects and in a way this is an European NATO project more so than an EU project.

CSU re- investment is already below 100% this year, so I think it’s already happening. The whale can only get so big sucking in plankton too which is probably the mental image I have regarding CSU acquisition driven growth. I did add a few more shares today.

FWIW, it looks like Polen just bought NVDA and AVGO.bThey are now convinced that these business are not that cyclical any more and the AI fueled growth lasts for longer. Seems a bit late in the game but Polen Capital are food growth investors. https://www.polencapital.com/perspectives/webinar-replay-q3-fireside-chat-large-company-growth