Spekulatius

I looked at OGN as I tend to do with all spinoffs but that turned me off was that invested heavily into Women’s health , which is a hard business to make money in. The spinoff also came with a boatload of debt.

An Immobiliare Holdco that everyone can buy: More transparent than above, I hope.

Yep, and these rocks are a highly correlated with a lot of interdependency (AI trade etc), When you buy SPY you don’t really buy a highly diversified index , you really make a tech trades that is based on just a few themes. The same was true in 2000.

Watched King of New York for the first time. Not the best script, but has outstanding cast (Christopher Walken, Buscemi, Fishburne etc) and some great performances. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099939/

I have an idea why North Korean losses will be high:

Trudeau should resigned after the election if he had any spine but continue to muddle along without a real mandate. Same situation than in Germany also there will be elections now early next year.

Interesting to read this and it sounds like Bernie or AOC said it, but it was in fact Trump. Bernie and AOC would have been more articulate. It‘s also total nonsense. Drug companies make way more money than the PBM (the guys Trump doesn’t who they are but he does not they are rich ). Imagine sitting there as an Pharma exec and just hope he remains clueless for the time being thinking he can squeeze the PBM and make drugs much cheaper that way. It’s Monty Python level comedy.

Look at all the cyclical components $DOW, $LYB, steel, oil, machinery; they almost all scraping the 52w low and in some cases multi year lows.

Pretty much everything is down except few tech and momentum stocks. Even NVDA has started to go down.

NYC is not federal. That’s state or city.

We have 2.95M government per Fred. Redistributing some of those won’t solve the labor shortage. Interesting enough, Federal employment peaked in 1990.

$NVDA is the answer, I think.

China may work as a trade but I think it will be net loser from Trump policies and slowly access to western markets as tariff barriers get erected. CCP Leadership sucks because they are preoccupied staying in power as well as pet peeves like getting control of Taiwan.

Well said. The best thing to do is to vote them out of the office every 4 years so grift does not go too deep and unbalanced and the one side corrects at least some of the prior nonsense.

Boomers are undefeated:

The trades are done, but secular trends probably not. Steel might be one, especially if you can catch the cycle too. The Trump steel trade was in VIC in summer 2024 as NUE at $165. Funny that Trump has won (that part of the thesis was correct ), yet the stock is down 25%. I think the author did not really get the pricing cycle right that affects the share prices more than political stuff, at least short term. Longer term, this could still work out especially with stocks that are secular winners like the mini mill cos. So, I am watching the pricing trend closely and probably take apposition, if STLD gets chaps enough and maybe even Nucor. https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/NUCOR_CORP/5596146855

Biden government has been great for me personally in financial terms which I suspect applies to almost anyone else here too. If Trump is just half as good, I am not complaining.

Germany has a decent cash economy too, I can assure that. Germans like paying in cash, getting paid in cash for good reasons and it’s not just because modern payments don’t exist. You get a better deal from a small contractor paying on cash than with credit or check, same than in the US. FWIW, the last car I bought in Germany from a dealer ( a low mileage almost new Vorführwagen) was paid in cash and I got a very good deal on that one, that was in the 90‘s but I am sure I could do the same thing now.

I checked Fred charts of Fedral employment and it looks like a straight line to me, except a COVID-19 that quickly reversed. You could tell when one presidency started and another concluded just looking st this chart. I have no doubt that Trump is going to eliminate some regulation but I doubt he is really going to touch core functions that much. Trump talks a big game but what he does is often totally different and improvised anyways, so who knows what it’s going happen. By the way bureaucrats are never elected, they are appointed. Nothing nefarious about either, it has always been that ways and won’t change under Biden, Trump of whoever comes next. Or does Trump allow us to elect the directors FBI, IRS, NASA? I don’t think so. Since this is about Trump trades @cubsfan what is your Trump trade?

If you want to change the health cares altem find out where the fat margins and large salary are made. It’s probably not the insurance that sends you the bill. FWIW, this guy want even insured with UNH. His back injury was a result of a surf accident. His surgery was a success and and we do not know what sort of financial issues resulted from it, could have been a deductible? Otherise, this guy was basically living a dream, but he apparently had mental issues, 3 d printed a ghost run and shot a health exec that had nothing to do with whatever issues he had. After earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of Pennsylvania, he worked at the Santa Monica-based car-buying website TrueCar until 2023 and lived in Hawaii for some time starting in January 2022. During a six-month stay at Surfbreak, a “co-living” space in Honolulu, Mangione’s back pain worsened in part because of a surfing incident.

Yes, if you run a 4% deficit and have 4% growth, your debt/income ratio stays the same.

You are probably correct but I do not think that matters, in terms of what is likely going to happen. The Steel in the big picture doesn’t really matter that much (job wise, impact on economy or even supply chain security) but it’s every elected politicians pet peeve. We see this by how US Steel is handled. Foreign ownership, even if it is likely beneficial is not allowed, it’s US Steel after all. Both candidates are are union friendly , doesn’t make a difference who is elected on that matter. So I think US Steel will be allowed to vegetate and remain a market share donor to STLD and NUE and commercial metals. We get a short term boost in domestic prices which benefits everyone. Looks like a heads I win, tails I don’t lose much if you investing STLD and the likes, especially if you can grab them on a weak price cycle. At least that’s my take.

I think iif you believe the tariffs are going to happen , buying steel companies is the best trade that comes to my mind. Also ticks in the re-shoring box. My preference would be to go with STLD and NUE. Both are cyclical of course but have been secular winners. I am not an expert in the industry and never held a steel stock before, but I am intrigued by STLD, its run by owner operator and they are lean operators with quite some vision. it looks like steel, prices are weak and probably going lower, $100-$110 would be a range to start a position. Somebody sing going to have to make the stuff that everyone will be consuming and if it’s made in the USA, I think it makes sense to make it with US made steel too.

I think think you can do all this in 4 days. Make a plan, but don’t plan too much.

I said it for some time, but there is a covert war going on in Europe: https://www.csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Spotlight-on-the-Shadow-War-Website.pdf Asssinations, GPS jamming , infrastructure attacks, election interference, cyberattacks. The cut of the fiber optics cable in the baltics see didn’t made it on the list yet, as the cutoff date was November 2024. FWIW, WW1 started for lesser reasons than those above . Those who think there can be peace with Putin in charge need to think again. It’s not just about Ukraine. Europe is in a covert war with Russia.