Spekulatius

Lots of Capital returns.

$JXN tiny adds to $SONY, $RHUHF

@bizaro86 MSGS is not a Malone related company. It’s controlled by Dolan. I own LBRDA and just a bit of WBD (starter). I think LBRDA, WBD and LSXMA are the most interesting from the bunch.

I looked into getting into the ATVI arb as well, but what bugs me about is how much other video game stocks have gone down since the deal was announced. So, if this deal falls apart, I think the downside is quite large and I think the stock could easily see a 5 handle. Anyways, I concluded it's not for me.

Anyone think a bear market can be over with $TSLA around $800 and $GME ~$100 ? I don't think so. it seems to me that there is are a lot more balloons to pop.

Any one noticed that every Malone related stock is getting whacked recently: LSXMA, LBRDA, WBD, LILA, LBTYA, LTRPA and probably more that I forgot. Strange how they all move together in a high beta fashion (partly due to relatively high leverage of these entities).

Bought some IAA (starter) yesterday. I also bought back some V.

The difference between late 2018, when the Fed started to tighten and now we have 2% vs 9% inflation. At 2% inflation, the Fed put for equities was in place, at 9% inflation, I am not so sure. I think there still is a Fed put, but the strike price is much lower.

Interesting thought that buying SWMA might be way for PM to get into the US market again.

@shruI don’t think your hypothesis makes much sense. 1) a lockdown in China will hurt the Chinese economy much more so than it does collateral damage to western economies (probably need order of magnitude more). 2. china is not the cause of inflation in the west, the causes are lack of labor in western economies, and rising natural resource prices as well as shortages due to demand spiking. 3) China is in much more risk of having a bubble popping the west. China has a real estate bubble that far exceed what we have in the US or even Canada. Worse, since they have pegged the Yuan to the USD, their monetary policy is tied to US monetary policy, until they decide to get rid of the currently peg. It seems like markets already predicting that this may happen, because the Chinese Yuan is very weak agains the USD. I think Chinese has to be much more concerned about their social fabric than the west at the moment. We can tell this from “common prosperity” agenda which whacks their stock market , but I guess they feel they have to do it nevertheless.

Reassuring: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-says-u-financial-system-165428712.html

SWMAY - looks like $PM wants it. Is it just me, but it seems a bit like a lowball offer: https://finance.yahoo.com/m/378efe91-d398-3c46-99a9-04960755e00e/philip-morris-in-talks-to-buy.html

I started watching Tokyo Vice and agree, it’s a great how. Highly recommended. I also started to watch Season 2 of “Undone”, the mindbending series on Amazon Prime. Loved the first season as well. Not for everyone, due to the unusual concept.

Yes, housing prices tend to be strong when employment is robust. On the other hand, rising unemployment causes distress in the housing market. This has almost always been true. There is a bit of reflexivity here because strong housing itself caused employment to rise. In any case, I think it is likely that a weakening labor market goes hand in hand with a weaker housing market.

@scorpioncapital Utilities have been a good performer over the last 2 years. I wonder of the current environment is good for them though. Sure they have some pricing power but a regulated utility has their equities regulated typically at around 10% and the cost of debt is increasing, so their WACC goes up. Will regulators grant them higher equity returns into compensate for that? I don’t know and haven’t really seen any evidence of that.

@muscleman, yes the total quantitative tightening seems to be $47.5B monthly, which is basically a nothingburger.

It also depends on the rate of inflation. You need to think real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation). We currently could support double digit interest rates, due to 9% inflation run rate.

Mr Market is just front running the rate rises from the Fed. The Fed rising by 0.5% while inflation is running at 9% still means borrowing money is cheaper than free. This applies even to the 5% mortgages. It's just less free than it was a few month ago. I agree the tech selloff is just looking for an excuse here - and it's the Fed. Now once a downtrend gets started it's just momentum and reflexivity at work.

Man up. This isn't a limit down day like March 2020 and you don't own $CVNA either.

Bought some MSGS today. I also purchased a starter in SMP (aftermarket parts) and added to LBRDA today and SWK earlier this week.

Declaration of war is necessary for Putin to declare mobilization which is the next escalation step for Putin. That means the "special operation" as it is called right now is over and a real war starts. Putin always doubles up on losing endeavors- that's something you can count on.

Who knows if this report from the NY Post is true; the NY Post isn't exactly the most reputable news source. However, rumors about Putin having cancer are not exactly new and he does not look at that healthy, so maybe there is something to it. Here is an earlier news article with some interesting factoids (or other rumors). https://news.yahoo.com/putin-visited-cancer-surgeon-dozens-112724988.html

On thing I am sure about - if you want to understand if a housing market is "healthy" forget days on market, price trends or what the realtors say. Just look at affordability - period. These charts are interesting from Yardeni, but they apply to the US, not Canada: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/houseafford.pdf Canada looks quite terrible: https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/housing-affordability-spiraling-to-worrisome-levels/?_ga=2.263179724.1526013155.1651603474-524993783.1651603474 It's all driven by interest rates at his point.

Logan Clay is simple as are many OTC stock annual reports, often because they lack important disclosure ($QUCT etc.). LAACZ had good disclosure and I found it in fact easy to value once I looked at their very brief annual report. I don't think it's easy to outperform with such a limited universe of investment opportunities, which brings us back to index investing.

@Xerxes $RTX is a fine business and will be around for a long time. However, it's a large cap with a lot of different business segments. The 10-K is 134 pages, which actually isn't too bad considering the size, but it's far from simple. Maybe we should reframe the question and ask for the stock with the shortest 10-K. Even a simple business like $FIZZ's annual report has 52 pages.