Spekulatius

As long as you only drive on straight roads.

Sanctions are not about feeling good or moral high ground. They need to be designed to hurt on the receiving end, and not undermine the own economy, which would be very detrimental for Europe. For example, German defense minister Lambrecht asked for a boycott on Oil, NG and coal deliveries. Worrying about energy supplies isn't her job however. Instead she should ask herself what she can do within the defense department she is leading to help out Ukraine. Based on what I am hearing and reading, she has some work do do. if anything, this bucha massacre should make getting weapons to ukraine easier.

@Ross812 I tried this recipe out today and it came out quite well. I used TJ‘s low calorie lemonade and just straight up Cointreau instead of Marnier and some leftover of Jose Cuervo Especial Tequila instead of the Costco Tequilla. Much better than sugary stuff you get in most restaurants for sure. Thanks for posting - this is the content we all come here for.

I have seen the news but don’t see the NG ban happening. It’s just asking for too much too quickly. Longer term, the absence of relatively cheap NG will have a lasting impact on some industries, especially, the basic chemical industry like BASF, which needs cheap NG and power for competitiveness. The German defense minister Lambrecht should ask herself what she can do to help out Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for some weapon that Germany should be able to supply, but so far the aid has been limited l unlike the UK for example, which has provided extensive help. If we want to help the Ukraine to win their territory back, we need to supply them with weapons that are not just defensive, but allow them to gain more control over the air (advanced air defense systems), perhaps cruise missiles to deter ships and the launch pads of the russian cruise missiles and the airplanes they have been asking for.

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry). Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

@no_free_lunch I think the sanction are working, but it takes time to kick in. The oil is hard to sanction, but the European can and will reduce depends from NG. It just takes time and doing this all at once would hurt the Europeans just as much than the Russian, so it’s not a good tradeoff. The technology part of the sanction is working and there have been news here and there that military complex is starting to hurt. Their airplanes, helicopters tanks all function with western parts and electronics and at some their areas running out. It’s probably already happening because supply chains tend to have parts for maybe 1-2 month but once they are gone, they have are done until they can replace them perhaps with some chines stuff, but that’s not always plug and play, if they even can get it. I think in a few month, the Sowjet economy will be short so many things that even the military complex will stop functioning. Maybe not quick enough to stop this war but for sure will prevent them from a redo.

I expect a regrouping and a new attack, presumably in the east. As for regime change, I don't think that's something one can bet on and it's quite unlikely.

You could well be right. Ukraine and Russia are both fighting a propaganda war, but Ukraine is much better at it. You would think that they at least have decent rifles. I have seen some videos from the Russian side, showing house to house search in Mariopolis mostly. A lot of those are Chechen and they don’t look that impressive either, but they do have decent weaponry. Russia has definitely fielded a lot of conscripts and Putin calling up 135k more in a hurry shows this as well. I don’t think that part is propaganda.

Happy April 1st fools day, Vladimir!

It’s 3/31 so I have to say it. Great quarter Z-guys:

I also wonder if we could end this war in one hour if we gave the Ukraine a few dozen of tactical and ballistic nukes. Edit: I am surprised Bill Ackman hasn't floated this idea

Without nukes, we would have a parade of Bradley's and Abrahams tanks on the Red Square by now. It's just a 10h drive from Latvia or Estonia to Moscow and there wouldn't be much to stop them, since they are busy beating up their neighbor in the south.

Reducing BAH in my IRA. Edit: Also ABEV and V.

Will be interested to see who flinches. Germany insists on paying for NG from Russia in Euro's or USD (as is written in the contract), Putin wants payment in Rubbles, via a trust account at a Russian bank: First Litmus test is tomorrow.

Holy crap. I feel sorry for these guys. There were rumors that some conscripts got Nagant bolt action rifles (WW2 standard edition). That may be almost true (the fellow in this clip shows a rather worn AK47). I also see news that Putin conscripted 135k new soldiers - more cannon fodder.

I like the frugal aspect of using Costco and TJ ingredients. I think I am going to try this recipe.

I read up on the Wagner group and I don't think sending them will make a lot of difference. Yes, they model themselves after the SS (the skull symbol is similar to the Totenkopf SS), but they are just mercenaries for dirty work and not really trained like an army on heavy equipment etc. Based on their track record in Africa, it seems that they have a mixed record at best and tend to get their asses kicked once they meet some skilled counterparts. They also seem to have very high loss rates. It's sort of ironical to sent mercenary Nazi's to de-nazify a country.

Annual report is out: https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/324942/content

It’s also public opinion and pressure. The Ukraine war is the most televised war in history and there is social media, Tik Tok (the Chechen actually have a battalion there that is called Tik Tok battalion. Ukraine plays thr Underdog well. Then affects people that are much like us ( white people). Do the same thing in a Dschungel in Africa and it’s won’t that big of a deal. There will be some articles in the Washington Post etc but that could be it. In a way that has something to do politics but also how humans are wired.

Well Putin is not a communist at all, as far as I know that party is pretty much dead in Russia. On a related note, the head line that Russia will reduce the assaults around Kyiv after they have been on the defensive there anyways could come right from a German Wochenschau newsreel ca 1944. They will probably shift to Donetsk area where they still had some success recently. I also doubt that this war comes to a conclusion very soon. Putin / Russia is still moving fresh troops from elsewhere into this meatgrinder as we speak. They also got the Wagner (great name) mercenaries in the backhand. I am not sure Putin want's to spent his private army though, as it is needed for insurance.

The Lindy principle applies to Dictators too. Putin has been around for a while, which means he is good at staying alive and my guess is he will hang around longer. He also has quite a bit of support from the population still, at least amongst the older people, who grew up when the Soviet union was still around. The younger crowd not so much. The 1420 channel has great interviews giving a view on how Russian's think. The people younger than 30 are not all that different from Millennials here. https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel

I would be very surprised if Berkshire would want to fully own Oxy. It seems that this would come with a lot of headaches - a deeply cyclical and not that great business over the long run, pot. environmental liabilities m ESG issues of the successor. I just don’t see it happening. He does own enough shares to have quite a bit of effective control, This could mean that he could sell his shares to a suitor or carve out Oxychem which might fit well with Berkshire’s other chemical business.

You may want to read up on "Greater Serbia" and Milosevic. Bosnia Herzegovina would not exist according to this plan, even though Serbians are the minority there. This war went on for a long time , starting in 1991 and NATO / the European did nothing. US under Clinton went in and finally put an end to this tragedy. About 200k people were killed in this war and if it weren't for US intervention, there would have been a whole lot more. All the while, the Serbian got massive help / weapons from Russia. Russia apparently liked to stoke this war in Europe. Right now, the Serbians are about the only country in Europe that sticks with the Russians after the Ukraine invasion. That's why the straw man arguments that's it's all the same are weak.