Spekulatius

@nwoodman Amyl and the sniffers are pretty good. Their records sound a bit flat though (not unusual for punk rock) and I think live the energy comes across much better.

Jinxed it.

Trying again and bought a starter in CUERVO in two accounts to add to my Booze portfolio. The way I see it, it’s cheaper than it was in 2018 since revenues have grown by ~60% in USD. That said, I don’t like management here and I don’t think they have done a great job so far since the IPO but margins should improve due to Blue Agave cost coming down eventually. There is also a recent ill timed VIC writeup on this stock.

Yes, when you watched the documentaries about him- especially the last one “ Crock of Gold” you really wonder how he kept going as long as he did. Time to rewatch “Crock of Gold” in Hulu.

Fargo S5 is bloody good:

Looks like they had a bloody good time... https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fcnninternational%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02H3jTcDCwruZEzEnkZVZ9ioEL5i7J1DJihYgVEzS98C9Hdbw6veivYNcsmpyGC7KRl&show_text=true&width=500"

Why would they stop this. Guyana is poor and going to a massive boom already, all fueled by energy investments. Suriname is in the same situation and looks like the O&G cos have been reasonable terms. This oil is going to flow as well. Venezuela has plenty off resources and cant even manage those - so the more difficult offshore fields will remain unexploited if they exist. But the rest is a go.

I think this offshore trend extends all the way from Venezuela to Brazil. $APA / Total already have several gushers in Suriname next to Guyana. PBR intends to drill in Brazillian offshore waters there. This will probably be a monster exploration area similar to shale in the USA. Opec better watch out or try to get this countries into their fold but in a way it wont matter, because for these countries, drilling for these resources is a no brainer.

Let me guess - the liver went first: https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/entertainment/shane-macgowan-death-scli-intl

Small add to $CPNG for $15 and change.

@RedLion I don't know where you live but when i lived in Santa Rosa, I loved making trips around Alexander valley (Dry Creek road) and try the vineyards that are chained around that Road. One of the largest is Alexander Valley vineyard which has a tasting room and a complete range from $20-$60 priced wines which are a good value, imo. I also liked the Russian River valley for similar reasons. Got a friend working the Porter Creek vineyard tasting room which is more boutique and according to her, the wines are very very good, but also pricier.

Seems expensive for $90/ bottle but even more egregious is selling $65 Bottles with "California" appellation. "California" means the grapes are coming from Central Valley - Ouch. I can buy good bottles of Cabernet for <$20 with Grapes from Sonoma county. You can't make great wine with crappy grapes (at least that's what my dad told me who was a winemaker).

ultimately the value of the sports teams depends on the revenues they can pull in, which is mostly from media/TV income. Even billionaires don't like losing money on an trophy assets even if it comes with an ego booster. So far media revenue has been rising quickly even though expenses matched the rise in income but I think eventually that revenue increases will subside since the ecosystem with streamers and cable isn't exactly healthy.

Every epidemic becomes endemic or the host dies out, so that was never in question. What was questionable is what happens until the epidemic becomes endemic.

Biggest risk is that the tax code changes and the intangibles paid for the team cannot be written off any more. If this happens, team values immediately would take a huge hit.

Imagine being worth $8.8B and then coming up with this low life scheme to squeeze out the last few hundred million $ from the remaining 20% of the business they agreed to sell already. WEB misjudged the character of the sellers here.

I don't think they have $330M in FCF. They have gotten a loan to pay for these. BRP has roughly ~$1.3B in debt and expect to pay $120M in interest next year. Their "FCF" does not include the cash earnout payments, so I think the absolute amount of debt will increase slightly. They may show lower leverage if their EBITDA continues to increase.

Charlie leaves behind a rich legacy.

Yeah FCF not containing earnouts which are cash payments was probably something that soured investors on the stock. This will continue until Q1 2025 according to the CC transcript. They have $332M in remaining earn outs to pay (relative to a $1.1B market cap), which puts considerable strain on their real cash flow. All the stated numbers don't contain this cash outflow. This could be interesting down the road if they get closer to working through the earnouts in late 2024, assuming the numbers come in as expected. Right now, they are seeing the limits of their acquisition driven business model.

Well if someone would replace google search with something better on your iphone - would you miss it? maybe. Same with google maps - Apple maps has improved to the point where it is almost as good. So most tech moats don't have the longevity that people think they have. the above isn't a theoretical exercise either since google pays Apple dearly to be the default search engine and Apple maps already exists. So Apple could very well change their mind and attack the moat with their own search or replace with Google (AI enhanced) search for example. I don't think the tech moats have the longevity that people think they have. Lot's of tech moats have disintegrated lately -Paypal, Intel, Cisco are fairly recent examples. I believe with tech it's much more about having great and forward looking management in place then the tech moat itself. When you look at history, each tech moat is probably seriously challenged every 10 years or so and it depends on management if they keep the moat intact or even develop new moaty business or not.

Bernanke never helicoptered money. Bernanke gave money to banks by the way of easy credit (TARP) but never sent checks to the average Joe which is what helicopter money means. That happened during the pandemic under Trump and a Biden. We can argue if it was necessary or not but the money kept flowing after the pandemics was essentially over and that caused inflation.

BILD is not a credible source, they just make stuff up and have been doing this for 50 years at least. Right now General Winter is going to slow everything down. Russia may have 4 x the soldiers, but they are also losing 4x the soldier right now, probably about 200k casualties/ year. Sure they can keep it up for a couple of years but their economy and demographic damage borders on ruin. Next year, they have to combat a Ukrainian Air Force bolstered by F16’s. Ammo won’t be an issue then either, there is enough production online by then to keep up with consumption.

From the above $JACK looks interesting when I looked at them recently. I had no idea before checking them out that they were buying back that much shares. I found them when I ran variations of my cannibal screen in Tikr.

Money for nothin is western decadence. Chinese stimulus means the under employed get sent to salt mines (or perhaps rare earth mines) with some regular whipping until morale improves.

Fondue bourgignonne uses oil , Swiss fondue uses cheese and a German fondue uses broth, which is basically what we use in our hotpot, just with different (Asian) flavors. It’s great for a family and/or friends get together.