Spekulatius

Glad this thread was resurrected. The post form @rukawa contains timeless wisdom. I have found all of what he wrote to be true.

The insurance brokers did trade down to ~20x earnings (not trailing but current earnings) just a year ago in early 2023. These corrections happen from time to time. Even then, it felt like I had to squint to buy some BRO shares (my only holding in that space). Correction happen with all socks, good or bad business and we will see them again for insurance brokers. On when the gravy train stops, my thinking is that it won’t for a while, because the market is so fragmented and will stay that way. One reason for this is that insurance is regulated by state so insurance contracts differ by state, which is something you quickly become aware of if you moved as much as I did. So even if you stay with one insurance co, your contract will differ from state to state, but in many cases, insurance cos will write insurance in one state, but not in another. Having different regulators and rules in 50 different states makes it harder to simplify insurance and moving it all online, which is why brokers play an important role.

Definitely true as far as red slaw or even Lexington BBQ is concerned . I went to eat Lexington BBQ at Lexington BBQ. The place was packed, apparently all locals. They did a pretty good job with the meat, but I didn’t care too much for the somewhat bland taste of it. I prefer the NC mustard based sauces or the more spicy ones. Kannapolis is pretty nice - they did a good job in making the downtown area attractive.

@dealraker might recognize that BBQ

Guess where IMG_0421.mov

I think movies soundtracks are pretty much modern day classical music (or perhaps Operas ). Even classical composers had to work on what payed the bills.

The warnings are not meant to guide or help the user (711 warnings and warning that go off on everything are useless) they are meant to protect someone from the legal department, management and/or the owner of the software within the company from repercussions, legal or otherwise. Those folks can always say that the warning was there and it was user error.

Of the new streaming series, I agree Sugar on Apple TV has been good (Apple continues to deliver high quality content). I also think that Fallout on Amazon Prime was fantastic. The film noir series “Ripley” on Netflix is pretty well made (only watched 3 episodes so far).

Noticed that a couple of documentaries about Modi dropped. I found this one from Bloomberg quite good. In a nutshell, it seems to me that Modi is a Hindu populist who actually delivers for most of his constituents and that’s why he is so popular: He is probably the most important politician in India after Gandhi.

Very nice interpretation from the Danish National orchestra of the Fellowship of the Rings theme:

Added a bit of BAX today and yesterday. I also added back PYPL recently. Bought a tracker in JACK in one account, which is a stock @gfp pointed out.

It’s not a seizure. Bernstein has no clue.

@gfp I have been tracking JACK but what keeps me away is the relatively large leverage. I think the issues round the CA fast food minimum wage can be overcome, but I have an aversion against high leverage and that kept me away from buying JACk. I would love to hear your perspective on this issue.

Interesting- Warren’s talks about LAACZ on this annual meeting. He discussed it with Munger when they first met ( amongst many other quirky stocks): Amazing too that he remembers the details of this conversation after more than 50 years or so.

It is a bigger problem at 2x book versus 1x book.

He is already in the grave. Can’t dance any more. Maybe he can turn around in his coffin.

I personally think after looking at all of the them that BRO and AJG are the best picks here. I only have a small position in BRO bought a bit more than a year ago and it’s as close to a neversell than you can get.

The tool market volatility is extremely low (VIX is at 13.5 and had been low for a while) , but the volatility in individual names can be very high as earnings misses get punished harshly and earnings beats rewarded handsomely. I think the latter may be a result of option activity.

VSTS was a margin improvement and debt paydown story from the spin. Now it looks again like the spinoff was oversold and my guess is that they may have to sacrifice some margin to keep the topline from falling. The CC brought new information to light that they have customer retention issues which to me sounds like a combination of service issues and pricing. This was not dixlosed before. They need to work this out to prevent the topline from imploding (which is the real risk here). At least, I am not paying a fancy multiple here and if the story works out LT, then I still think we could see a multibagger here. I think @Dinar owns the stock too and may have further insight.

Bought some VSTS yesterday and today. just another spinoff that runs into trouble, but uniform rental fundamentally a good business, so I think this should be fixable. High leverage (from spin) is a concern.

What do you think happened when you dodged draft during the Vietnam war or even Germany during the Cold War?

Yes every significant merger is going to get sued by the FTC and COF and DFS will have a high combined market share in credit cards. It is going to be tough to get this merger to close, imo.

LHX has very straightforward management incentives. They have been bulking up with acquisitions to become a prime contractor, but it has stretched their balance sheet somewhat. I think GD is probably the best run of the primes. LMT has a great balance sheet so they could flex when growth prospects are limited because some much is dependent on the F35 program which is not a priority in the current defense budget.

Sold most of my DFS yesterday. I think the merger with COF will be blocked and I expect DFS to fall from current levels (~$130 sales price).

Forward multiples. Nobody drives just looking in the rear view mirror.