Spekulatius

I highly recommend Tuchman's "Guns of August " book. I also liked " A distant mirror" about medieva lFfrance from her. She is an excellent writer and brings history alive.

That was expected. Putin playing his games with everything - grain deal, NG etc. His NG games will be over after the winter though for the most part. Anyways those people who think that negotiations lead anywhere with him should really think over their position.

Defection is technically difficult. Most of the soldiers aren't operating alone so, so unless the entire unit is on board, how do you defect. Then there is risk that the enemy unit on the other side don't regard you as a threat and just shoot you to smithereens.

I guess nuclear energy and solar does not count. Both aren't 100 years old. We also have fusion, but i think it will take another 30 years to commercialize. it doesn't mean we can abandon hydrocarbons (they are used for the chemical industry anyways, so no way to abandon them, even if we don't use them for energy) but mankind has certainly developed new energy sources. There are several more like geothermal, heat pumps that are more niche. The latter one are pushed in Europe for heating homes and should help to wean of from Russian NG gas for heating.

Elon Musk is making a lot of enemies lately.

I think if we are talking about the geopolitical endgame it seems inevitable that Europe will try to become closer to the USA again. They tried to play a middle role between Russia and the US with the EU etc but that plan really fell apart in 2014 and even more so with the Russian invasion and now it’s clear for everyone, I think. We have got the iron curtain do over and while not directly, Europe is now at war with Russia. i a, not even sure that Putins demise would change anything as many Russians agree with him to some extend. I don’t think this is going to go well for Russia in the long run. Their demographics are already bad as is and energy and resources are what keeps them afloat, but talent is going to leave the country ins roves and most likely makes their problems worse. Maybe they become a Chinese puppet but I don’t think this is likely either. Maybe I should try some of Peter Zeihans books.

This was a cluster bomb, which are banned, yet the Russians keep using them. The marking may be misinterpreted though that the bomb most likely wasn’t aimed at children (the Russian intelligence and strike precision isn’t good enough anyways) and the bomb marking was a reference to an alleged strike of the Ukrainian military in the Donetz or Luhansk area that hit children there. It was meant as an retaliation for this.

I am enjoying these guys (Blink - 182) more than I thought. Their records around 2000 (Dude ranch, enema, Take of your pants and jacket) are the best, Imo: Punk rock/ pop, fun, simple and pure.

I have not looked too closely at Warsaw stock exchange. While stock exchanges are great business, they seem to become less great over time and that’s why I put this aside. Just another thing to point out is that polish stocks don’t trade in Euros, but in their local currency ( Zloty) The polish currency is sort of loosely pegged to the Euro, but has been even weaker than the Euro itself. Owning financials when the currency is weakening and the central bank is tightening (from almost zero to 6.5%) can be iffy and I personally don’t know enough about polish banking to determine what it money good and what is not. Better to go with anti fragile business like distributors or similar as a “tourist”.

I have donated to this organization that help with humanitarian aid as well as helping out some territorial forces that are often under supplied relative to regular military units. https://www.mightycause.com/story/M1wzpf?amp; I suppose these a Ukrainian organization in the US know what they are doing. While I sympathize with the Ukrainians, it is important to keep in mind that Ukraine is considered a fairly corrupt country and I don’t think a war really improves this situation either.

I am a bit intrigued by it, because you can make a framework that only 3 companies control the best iron ore assets - Vale (Brazil), Rio and BHP (Western Australia). there is also Fortuesce, but they are a smaller player. The companies have the lowest cost resoruces. Yes China can mine their own, but the cost are much higher and also seems to be increasing. the price floor for iron ore seems to be around ~$75/ ton bd at that point, most other players are really hurting and only the big 3 or 4 make money. Do this seems to be a situation where you can cut through the noise and probably time the bottom, when the resource prices go to his level. that seems to happen every couple of years. Its better in that sense than energy where you have a cartel and the largest player Aramco probably can lift oil for $10 per barrel and still break even or make a bit of money. While you can buy Aramco. theoretically, it’s carry a large political risk Fo being the Saudi National oil company so who knows what really their intend is , but enriching minority shareholders is probably fairly low on the totem pole. Now with these iron ore company, you can basically buy the equivalent of Aramco but with the company and resources located in a political stable county (Australia). Copper is also an interesting metal with the electrification and has substantial LT tailwinds, but the best plays are located on Peru and who knows what’s going on there politically in the future ( current political trends don’t look that great).

The Russian write messages on shells too, has been done since WW1. Yes, it’s is gamification and you are not really buying the shells either. It’s a way for Ukrainian units them to get donations, not an official Ukrainian army thing. Can’t blame them for trying, As for killing Russians, that’s one way to sent them home. Other would be preferable, but this is war and if that’s the only way, then so be it.

Th BHP dividend is variable as is RIO’s. I think they are just distributing a share of their net earnings based on a formula. The current 13% yield is based on pretty elevated earnings, but I think if you by this around $45 (my target) then you get ~10% yield throughout the inevitable cycle. A variable dividend is the right way to distribute cash, imo. Amongst the energy/ oil companies, only PBR does the same thing, but PBR has some political risk.

IBKR works well. I own a bit of TIM (distributor). APR (Auto Partner, car part distribution) also looks interesting, but I don’t own it yet. PKO (largest Polish bank) might be a good one, but I haven’t researched it at all. They all look statistically very cheap, but keep in mind that their raised the interest rates in Poland to 6% , I believe. The Ukraine war could be a huge LT benefit as millions of Ukrainian came to Poland to escape the war and some will likely stay.

I am sure it’s mining in general, the precious Mets, sector is its own beast. FWIW, I don’t own any mining stocks but some start to look interesting like BHP or RIO. Both of them got religion a while ago before the oil companies did and have decided to run with minimum debt and just distribute their earnings in variable dividend. They should be great holds in cash deferred accounts. It’s better than buybacks which happen when the stock prices are high. You can see how many oil companies bought back stock in 2020 when their prices were much lower than currently. Paying out excess cash mostly in dividends is the way to go in very cyclical sectors, Imo.

That’s a nice thought , but unlikely going to work. The Russians can get all the information they need, if they look for it (some do as is evident by VPN downloads), but most chose to believe their propaganda, because it is convenient for them: Got to watch this channel if you want to know how the average russian in Moscow thinks:

Intriguing:

I highly recommend Guns, Germs and Steel. A great book with many novel (at least for me) ideas about why history went the way it did. the anecdotes about Papua are particularly interesting. I think it's also relevant if you transplant the ideas in economic and societal development.

Yes, we need to increase energy production and save energy at the same time. As for Russia, they still sell their oil and it doesnt really matter to whom. If they sell oil to India or China, then those consumers need to buy less from the Saudi‘s etc. The NG is a bigger problem than oil because some of the Russian NG will be stranded come next year and Europe will buy up LNG everywhere they can get their hands on. Shell is the biggest player in integrated NG by far. This business should mint money, but while they have a nice asset, their Management is lousy.

Thanks - makes sense. Soros is funding a lot of things and some probably shouldn't be funded. Good to see Chesa Boudin getting canned for example. We visited my wife's family in the Bay area this spring and never went to SF, because of the prevalent crime. It's shameful to let things slide that far.

Europe - Germany (visiting family), France (Paris), Belgium and Holland then back to Frankfurt in a triangle. Plan on getting a nice variety of beers on the way - my wife calls our trips beercation.

As I mentioned before, these bonds are an artifact. The rules for the ibond interest rates were implemented in 1998 when inflation was low and other bond yield with fixed interest were competitive. Then fixed interest rates dropped over time and the interest rate rules for the ibonds stayed the same, making them attractive with the high inflation we have currently. You are overthinking this , imo. Just buy them if you like the setup and it works for you and don’t if you don’t. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Savings_Bonds#Series_I

Neither of the above is true. The rich don't bother with putting 10k in an account, it doesn’t move the needle. I think these ibonds are more or less and artifact that sort of exists. Very few people bothered about them for decades.

LBRDA (at a small loss). Selling anything with a high debt load. BERY was another one in that bucket I sold a while ago.

I agree on the coffee and the fries and the consistency. Now do Starbucks - I mostly drink Cappuccino and they are all over the place in terms of what you get with airport franchisees being the worst. I sort of have given up on Starbucks, as the experience during the pandemic got worse. I usually went there for breaks on long drives but they sort of closed the stores and those that reopened had a lot of issues. It's not a surprise to me that Schultz cam back to salvage his baby - the relatively strong financial numbers withstanding.