Spekulatius

Could well be an intermediate step, but then the human is still the bottleneck. Also why does the human need to fly and expose himself rather than go all the way to AI with human as a backup in cubicle or VR workstation somewhere? I don’t think fighter pilots have a long future in their job. How can a human fighter pilot win against an airframe with an AI designed to maneuver with 30G when a human only can take 10G for a few seconds before fainting?

Adam Smith rotating in his grave?

I bought some CACI recently and TFII today.

On manned aircraft, we are probably one generation of aircraft away from going unmanned. The reason is simple, humans have physical limits (g forces, attention spans, reaction times) that can be overcome with an intelligent control system. So you have a preprogrammed mission and the intelligence or AI will decide the tactical execution on the go. I think it’s inevitable because humans just can react fast enough or handle the g forces that planes to generate with modern flight control system to evade threads or maneuvers against enemy aircraft or obstacles. Planes are networked computer that also fly nowadays anyways so it makes sense to do away with humans if these AI systems get good enough. Then the airplanes and drones basically become the same thing.

Well naval power has to be an air power too, those two go hand in hand since WW2 and the domina d of rh aircraft carrier. The US Navy is basically designed around carrier groups. So the F-35 needs to work. It’s less clear for export markets. The F-35 hardware isn’t too expensive but it’s very expensive to fly and to maintain. I think there is a large market for aircraft somewhat heat simpler and plains that are easier to get on the air and log flight hours necessary to remain effective. After all a bird on the ground or runway is just an easy target. Lockheed does have the F-16 that is still getting upgrades for that but there are other more modern contenders too. I could well see GD split their ship and submarine business from land system and IT. I don’t think the latter ones have a great future and even if you look at GD as a whole, the business has stagnated for many years basically.

Stranger things going on: Apparently X has deleted the Tweets. Another win for free speech.

Just have your browser save the # and password. Very easy.

Himars without activation code: You must be stupid to buy US weapons nowadays. Europe really has an opening to export their defense products to India, Japan, BRICS etc.

It was on Hulu. I enjoyed the show as well.

This is in German but if you understand the language the it’s worthwhile. It from the CEO of Rheinmetal and pretty impressive. Had clearly says they can build a lot of Lynx vehicles , air defense system that make short work of drones etc. They have capacity to produce 1M rounds of artillery ammo and are building factory in the Ukraine in JV’s. They have a blanket order to build 100 Lynx for Italy and build 150/ year but that’s because the order is structured that way and they could easily build twice as much. I think Germany has better means to quickly ramp up weapons manufacturing on an industrial scale than the US quite frankly. There is an amazing about of resources available. I know for example Thales a bit and they have deeper internalized manufacturing integration than US aerospace cos like Boeing and other defense primes. It can be a bit of a hindrance to some extend and does not comply with the asset light operating model of the US primes but it does allow them to remap better and make them more resilient in term of supply chains. There is a tremendous amount of technical , industrial and financial resources that Europe can draw from but it takes a common vision and political will to do so. FWIW, Rheinmetal stock is close to a 20x bagger from the COVID-19 lows.

You have to open an account in person at the NYC library or any satellite library to get a library account number. Then you can sign up for online access. It works the same way about everywhere.

Think about this - the Iron dome (reviving Reagen’s Star wars concept) presumably gutting the Army (cuts have to come from somewhere) and bumping up Nuclear armory is consistent with retreating from Europe and likely other locations while keeping control of the essential oceans. Even bullying Canada to become a US state and Greenland to become an US colony makes sense in this context. Just my guess but Taiwan will be dropped in a couple of years to China in another deal, Australia , Korea and Japan have to look for themselves. They are probably still needed to keep control of the Pacific but only so long. The nuclear arsenal buildup while also building up nuclear defense means that Trump counts on nuclear bullying to further the goals rather than boots on the ground? In think investment wise, HII and to a lesser extend GD (Electric boat) are winners but their land system are a loser, LMT seems a bit on the loser side with their expensive F35 program, NOC has the IBCM contract, LHX is in a lot of subsystem everywhere and the extremely profitable radios and IR optics look like losers and their Space business is exposed to Doge cuts and SpaceX competition. Interesting times. I think the European defense cos have much better prospects but a lot of it is now baked in.

Just my guess is that the Space Force and the Army (troops in Europe etc) will be on the chopping block. There is no way they can get $50B in savings without layoffs. I think the Navy will get more. The Space Force probably the #1 target of any spending review, as their purpose is quite fuzzy and Elon Doge can claim they can do it cheaper with SpaceX . I recently looked at the size of the branches and the US Navy is almost as large as the US army. I had no idea by the US isn’t a land power but primarily a sea power.

Also, the CDU has adopted some AFD positions on emigration and also likely a more independent path from the USA (due to recent events). If Merz gets a strong enough mandate, then he should be able to do something. If not, then Germany is going to remain a rudderless ship just like under the led coalition. Before the German election is settled, I don’t think anything will really happen. There is a lot of leverage the Europeans have and means to do something. For example the majority of the Russian assets that have been frozen are within the EU (Belgium, Euroclear) and the UK. Thats probably about $200B that the EU could turn against Russia to increase defense, aide Ukraine. it does require a legal framework but where there is will there is a way. Its the will that has been lacking not the means to do something.

It’s clear that Trump doesn’t give a damn about an Ukraine , he just wants this over with and is annoyed about the resistance from Zelenski , hence the vitriol . What I don’t get is why he just doesn’t cut the aid and leave it at that, since he has no vested interest in the outcome and also won’t back any solution but leave this to others. He really has no business to negotiate anything at this point and should leave it alone.

Selling a bit of NTDOY today as well

The world being safer doesn’t matter if your country is not safe. Russian is a very hostile power, China as well and the USA are on a Neo Imperialist path now. Especially as a smaller country with mighty neighbors owning nukes you are giving up your sovereignty if you don’t own nukes as well. South Korea for example has no protection anymore from NK nukes or Chinese aggression. Europe has no protection from Russian nuclear bullying. With Article 5 in question or gone, the NATO really doesn’t exist any more the way it used to. Europe is on its own now that’s should be very clear. What it makes out of this situation is much leads clear.

I think the main lesson is that everyone needs nukes. North Korea already does some saber rattling and my guess is that Iran is tong to get theirs for sure as well. Europe needs to get its own nuclear umbrella. It’s a matter of sovereignty now. South Korea needs nukes yesterday.

Essentially, NATO has been split apart and Europe needs to find a way on their own. If Europe doesn’t arm itself, they have a combined Russian/ Chinese force on their door knocking in a couple of years making nuclear threats. Some understand this but many do not yet. Welcome to the multipolar world.

I totally agree. Watched it for 1/2 hour and abandoned it. Unbelievable lousy in all respects compared to the Gladiator I. Not even one redeeming factor I could point out.

You actually can produce medicines in one country and run clinical trials in another. This happens all the time.

You cannot move capital out of China without regulatory approval. This is true for domestic as well as subsidies of foreign companies. The Yuan is not freely convertible into other currencies either.

My understanding is that it’s the current year which does not match the calendar year. Yes, the earning releases of Japanese companies constantly confuse me on this matter as well.

FUSO $4368 just upped their earnings forecasts. This should not have been a surprised because they basically earned the forecasted 250 Yen/ share in the first 9 month and that was announced a few days ago. https://fusokk.co.jp/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/e131a439485591dfe06d646ec91e09b9.pdf Amazing how inefficient some markets still are. Stock is up ~10%.

Calculatedrisk is fine, but they don’t really advertise or produce alt data. They just interpret existing data with a focus on real estate. I think most alt data sources are suspect and worse than the official data we get.