no_free_lunch

It's plausible of course but I don't see it. Putin , believe it or not, is still trying to maintain good guy status to his followers. It would destroy the narrative that he is saving Ukraine from itself. If it was done I assume Ukraine would destroy the NG pipelines for starters. It could draw the US into retaliation. I feel Sweden and Finland would have little choice but to join NATO. In the Pacific it would expedite South Korea and Japan nuclear weapon programs. Not sure Russia cares but China sure would. As a Russian ally it would put them in a awkward spot at a time they are pursuing economic and political and strategic advantage. I frankly feel it would piss them right off due to the blowback. I'm sure there is more but I feel it's like shuffling the position of all the pieces in the chessboard at once. All plans and calculations are reset.

For the record Mariupol defenders remain and continue to fight. Russia sources continue to brag about their success fighting them. Yet these defenders have had no resupply for 50 days and likely have no heavy weapons remaining. Yes they will likely surrender or die in the end but what is happening there is, in my opinion, legend.

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor. Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play. Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting. However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

Bought some TWTR this week. It seems so cheap relative to its usage. Also a gamble that Musk doesn't bail and somehow multibags it. I think having your own satellite system combined with dominant social media could be a powerful combination. If Musk bails you are only paying a 15% premium. Evrn without him it could work out ok.

I don't buy that the Russian ship had an accident. Too much of a coincidence. I suspect there will be more accidents to ships in that area. For sure even Russia sources have confirmed it is damaged and will need repairs.

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time. They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent. Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

I agree that you need to back it with something. I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army. Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z. The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine. People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia. Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices.

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs. Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets. I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that. You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. Regardless, I stand with Ukraine.

Yes. I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex. Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes. It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams. You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours. They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking. Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features. There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available. I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget.

I agree. I just hope the iron curtain stays up. Been reading too many stories about rape and torture from the Russian side. Let's throw away the niceties, this is what it really is.

Roblox RBLX. Hard to justify but I see a lot of potential. Seen too many kids playing on it. I love that the video game content is created by the users for near free. Could be considered a social network.

On the war crimes trials , I tend to agree that it's pointless and perhaps worse than that. It seems it gives a false sense of control to the west and a false sense of action. To reiterate there is no ability to try Putin and company so let's not play games. This does not count as doing anything against Russia or for the victims in Bucha and elsewhere. I would rather government focus on helping Ukraine militarily and via sanctions.

Agree completely with this. I don't want to take any credit or sound braggy but apple, Amazon, google I had people with no investing knowledge telling me they were great companies. I invested in all a decade or more ago. I'm not bragging because I will tell you I sold all after 50-100% profits and missed the huge wave. It really was not that difficultvto identify them , trickier to hold on. A couple companies I feel could be big going forward are Atlassian and Roblox. I don't know about FAANG level but I think they do well operationally. They are insanely priced so it will take years for the company to catch up to the stock.

The link and excerpts are a transcription from RIA Novosti a Russia news agency. I'm curious if any Russian speakers can validate the original article. The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated - because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people. Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation. Ukraine's political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt. The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation - 25 years. Then the author goes on to detail exactly what needs to be done https://mobile.twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1510908227202002947

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like. Still I feel Germany can do more and perhaps they will. Even anything will help, it doesn't have to be quitting cold turkey. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification. Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link. I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind. Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse — Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade" https://t.me/svezhesti/43717

There are reports , from multiple sources, that Gazprom has started to shut gas supply to Germany and presumably other countries as well. I haven't seen anything about it in MSM so I would say still not verified. It's big news if true. Seems Putin may be willing to sanction himself.

It's a tough environment. Yes the market is overpriced and risk everywhere but also inflation is hopping. I am still mostly invested. I am trying to avoid financial types and focusing on business with pricing power. At this point it's a question of holding on to capital inflation adjusted.

Your cynicism doesn't matter. It's like saying Elon Musk doesn't care about global warming, he's just doing it to get rich. So? It's the right thing to do. If it didn't appear that Ukraine wanted and is actually desperate for weapons I might agree with you. Given their requests and their success to this point it is very elitist to say that we know better. I agree with you on sanctions but only because they aren't working. Until we can cut oil it's mostly for show.

I have heard, from Russians living in Canada that there actually is a lot of support for the war in Russia. Clearly many disapprove but overall yes, support. Not that it matters and I guess it's maybe 60 40 but yes lots of support. People talk about MSM and how it lies about the war, this is how it lies. It inflates our perception of issues in Russia. It doesn't lie about EVERYTHING but it does lie about little things. Judging by American movies I feel the population can only support what it sees as a winnable war. Anyways it doesn't matter. It's all self defense. I really think you are underestimating what is happening in Ukraine. All this moral stuff goes right out the window when children become targets. Ukraine is not a little pussycat that got stepped on. Russia is a lion then so is Ukraine. Ukraine will strike back, Russians will die. Stop the war and it will stop. The west will continue to support Ukraine because they are not so stupid. Those that are likely to swing, they are already sold. Let's let it unfold.

There are reports that Ukraine has attacked Belgorod, a Russian city. The second time this happened actually. Last time it was a weapons cache and this time oil storage attacked. Good. Why should Russia be safe when Ukrainian civilians are being murdered.

Slight quibble with the term beating up. They, Russia military, are definitely issuing some beatings but let's not ignore all the Russia soldiers who are coming out dead or maimed. Ukraine continues to fight back. Agree though that sanctions and oil could ultimately resolve this or allow it to continue. I don't quite follow SD and whole I hope he's right I don't see Russia in such a bad financial spot. They have $600b in gold alledged and can shift business to China India Brazil and more. Meanwhile Europe IS continuing to buy their product.