Hoodlum

Even Trump realizes that oil prices will likely stay high through the mid-terms. Beyond the political consequences, what will the economy and stock market look like 6 months from now. https://fox2now.com/news/national/trump-says-price-of-oil-gas-could-be-down-the-same-or-maybe-a-little-bit-higher-by-the-midterms/amp/ “So, do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?” Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo asked Trump in an interview on “Sunday Morning Futures.” “I hope so. I mean, I think so, it could be, it could be, or the same or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same,” Trump responded.

I am more concerned about the damage to processing facilities as the straight will eventually reopen. Also, yesterday Iran hit a major East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. The longer this goes on, the greater the risk is to facilities/pipelines that will impact production over the medium term. Opening of the straight is not the risk.

I prefer a full bodied red wine. My favourite go to “cheap” wine at home is Duca di Saragnano Alchymia Primitivo from Italy. When I go out I prefer unique drafts, and no I do not like IPAs. I usually lean towards medium to darker beers. I am currently trying a La Chouffe Blonde from Belgium on tap and it is quite nice. I may pick up a bottle when I visit my daughter soon in Montreal, as it seems only SAQ carries it.

I don't believe the situation in the Middle East will cause a significant spike in inflation as it will eventually be resolved. The one area of concern is the amount of damage to infrastructure of Oil, Gas and processing facilities and how long that takes to repair and get back up and running. We will not know the extent of this until some type of semi-permanent resolution is in place. The longer this goes on, the greater the risk of some longer term impact. The processing facilities (Petro-chemicals, fertilizer, plastics, etc) have the greatest risk to inflation due to the amount that comes out of the gulf and that there are no quick alternative replacements available. The Core CPE (excluding energy and food) was 3.1% in January and we will see if this trend continued in February. It would not surprise me if inflation started ahead of this war, but of course the average consumer will blame it on the war. Do not underestimate the impact of AI growth on the Memory costs and how that will filter down to all electronic products and start impacting services (ie. server hosting) as those added costs get past down. I don't see this situation changing unless there is a crash in AI growth. I am also starting to see shortages in certain sectors due to memory costs, as some companies decide to focus on higher margin items. We will see more of this as the year progresses. A slow down in the economy is not going to quickly resolve these inflationary pressures, so the Central Banks will be hand-tied in what they can do with interest rates.

That was from 1/31.

That is great news! That brings it to 372k shares (54k,101k,217k) bought back for cancellation (~1.8% of outstanding) in Q1. Fairfax certainly picked up the pace in March. I wonder when the blackout period begins for Q1 results.

The current bonus payout is not quite as fast as last year, but the maximum limit is still very similar. I am so use to receiving my monthly payout from WS, I have included it in my budgeting. I am going to miss it once it ends. Of course we son was already on WS for a couple of years before me and always raved about it. But like most my age, I just ignored it as I liked using TD for past 25+ years. Then when the 2% bonus over 2 years became available, it was just too much to leave on the table so I made the jump. Yes, my son did receive the referral bonus. He made sure of that. LOL

I should mention that the method of bonus payout also varies. WS pays you directly to your WS savings account on a monthly basis (prorated). There was a 2 year requirement for keeping those funds at WS when I did mine and if you moved some out before then, your remaining monthly payout would be reduced. So far CRA has not come calling on these bonuses as income. TDDI has a 1 year requirement for their 2% bonus to keep fund in the account. TD only pays out at the end of the 1 year and they pay the bonus into the accounts that accrued it, including registered accounts without impacting your contribution room. This last bit surprised me.

I did an in-kind transfer for my TFSA/RRSP. The only limitation is that fractional share would need to be sold as those cannot be transferred in-kind. I believe my transfer to WS last year would have had a limit of a $100k bonus based on $5M transfer. I was no where near that. LOL

Definitely the borrowing against the TFSA will not not being of much benefit for those that already have access to funds through other methods. I can see this as great financial tool for the younger generation if used properly. Someone young may initially start with building their TFSA until their incomes increases to the point where they start contributing to an RRSP. Since they don't own a home yet, they could borrow from their TFSA for either an emergency/car loan at a low rate without needing to withdraw from their TFSA. The key will be to have a plan to play it off in a set time similar to any other loan. WS is really going after the younger generation and this is where the big banks will loose out as they grow their portfolios.

I only have a FHSA account with RBC as no one else offered a self directed account at the time. I looked at moving that to TD recently but was told that for FHSA accounts the transfer needs to be handled manually and so only cash transfers, and it could take up to a month. I didn't want to be out of the market for a month due to the sale of my investments, so for now have left it with RBC. It sounds like the FHSA requirement is not specific to TD but is a requirement for any institution transfer.

There are a couple of things with WS that would be difficult to replicate with someone else. I have their no cost Visa Infinite card that provides 2% cash reward on all purchases and includes no cost Fx fees and all the basic protection and travel insurance you would expect for a premium card. The Cash rewards are calculated daily and can be transferred to another account at any time. WS also allows me to use my TFSA account as collateral for borrowing or investing in my margin account. You basically just need to link your margin account to the TFSA. I have done this but you need to of course be aware of risks for margin call on TFSA so I would never go anywhere near the limit. Cost to borrow is only 3.95% and fluctuates based on prime. My Savings account gets me 2.25% at WS, so quite a narrow spread. This is a great way to access funds for short term borrowing if you don't have access to or want to setup a line of credit on a home. Just treat it as something to pay off quickly like any other loan.

I only do basic stock trading with WS and it has been fine for that purpose. I mainly switched to take advantage of their 2% account bonus last year for transferring from TD. I also happen to have a small account with RBC and I find them to have the worst experience for online trading through their App. TD is much better from my experience. I noticed the below alert in my TD account through a browser. It looks like this is impacting the early trades from today.

I have only one small account now with TD, after moving to WS last year. I haven't done anything with TD but see multiple thread on Reddit today for this. Cancelling order only makes it worse as it goes into "Cancel Pending" status and funds are held. One guy was told byTD rep that it was an exchange issue and not specific to TD.

In Canada we were still in good shape with our debt until the 2008 Financial crisis where there was the perceived need to pump the system. I still question if Canada needed to do that as our banks were in good shape. This was when spending went to another level and became more the norm.

Eurobank received a ratings upgrade today. We will likely see similar upgrades from other rating agencies over the next few months. https://dbrs.morningstar.com/research/478320

Both Eldorado Gold and Foran Mining shareholders approved the acquisition today. This is expected to close in Q2. https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-reports-voting-results-special-meeting-shareholders-0 https://foranmining.com/news-media/foran-news-releases/foran-securityholders-approve-business-combination-with-eldorado-gold/

It would seem the government may try to push through the IDBI Bank divesture, as they don't want to restart the whole process again. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/centre-may-seek-revised-bids-from-two-suitors-for-idbi-bank/articleshow/130085623.cms?from=mdr New Delhi: The government may ask for revised financial bids from two potential buyers of IDBI Bank as their original bid amounts were lower than the reserve price fixed for the strategic sale of the lender, sources said. "The IDBI Bank strategic sale is in the technical evaluation stage," a senior official told PTI. Amidst the West Asia crisis, the government is banking on disinvestment and asset monetisation to garner resources and create fiscal space for measures to shield the economy from the global uncertainty, officials said. After over three years of pursuance, the strategic sale of IDBI Bank had reached the final stage of financial bid, and the government does not want to restart the process again to avoid further delay. Sources said that the government has now restarted work to take forward the IDBI Bank strategic sale to a logical conclusion.

Shareholder meeting details. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-hybrid-annual-shareholders-meeting-details-april-6-2026/

Brian Young, Michael Wallace, Gobinath Athappan and others from Fairfax Asia visited Falcon Insurance in Thailand. Falcon Insurance had 30% growth in 2025. https://www.nationthailand.com/pr-news/pr-news/40064633

I am curious if anyone has access to the contents of Allied World article. https://www.theinsurer.com/ti/interview/iglesias-allied-world-positioned-to-perform-in-all-segments-of-the-cycle-2026-04-02/

And here I thought Fairfax had completely exited the Toys R Us business. https://www.lakelandtoday.ca/national-business/toys-r-us-canada-gets-court-permission-to-put-itself-up-for-sale-seek-investors-12090285 However, Allied World Specialty Insurance Company, a firm that insured many of the retailer’s suppliers against nonpayment, had qualms with the process Toys “R” Us Canada proposed. Allied World, which has received more than $66 million in claims from 36 Toys “R” Us suppliers, has previously hinted in court that it wants more scrutiny of Putman Investments. Allied said Putman sold five properties valued at $42 million to a related party for $38 million in the lead up to the company’s creditor protection filing.

it is official now with the index getting updated in May 2027. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/greece-set-rejoin-msci-developed-markets-index-2027-2026-03-31/

Thanks @Viking for these details. I was expecting a notable loss on the MTM equity, but had forgotten how much exposure Fairfax had to Oil.

Hopefully that was Fairfax picking up 140k shares near the close today. I believe there was ~70k yesterday as well near the close. Separately, I noticed that sometime this month TDDI started offering partial shares in FFH. I believe this is a first for a major bank in Canada.