mcliu

Yeah US has really ramped up and put private sector to work. Canada was extremely late to close borders and testing is falling behind. Hopefully our curve is later and US can bail us out.

Masks also prevent asymptomatic carriers from spreading the virus! Less effective for personal protection, more effective to prevent spread. Fauci said they are reconsidering guidance as production ramps up.

incredible She's going from Shanghai to Wuxi. Near the end it shows the security measures in-place to screen local travellers even between provinces.

Remember what Trump sent to China? 17.8 tons of PPE Trump administration sent protective medical gear to China while he minimized the virus threat to US https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/opinions/coronavirus-personal-protective-equipment-obeidallah/index.html Followed the link in the article, sounds like it was private donations, maybe NGOs? State Department provided shipping: Feb 7: "This week the State Department has facilitated the transportation of nearly 17.8 tons of donated medical supplies to the Chinese people, including masks, gowns, gauze, respirators, and other vital materials." https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-announces-assistance-to-combat-the-novel-coronavirus/ At the time, everyone was sending China supplies.. https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/02/canada-supports-chinas-ongoing-response-to-novel-coronavirus-outbreak.html Canada sent medical supplies to China on Feb 9: "To support China’s ongoing response to the outbreak, Canada has deployed approximately 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment, such as clothing, face shields, masks, goggles and gloves to the country since February 4, 2020." https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-appeals-for-medical-supplies-to-be-sent-from-abroad Feb 6: "It has also urged the US to fulfil its promise of providing aid, a day after it accused Washington of spreading fear by pulling its citizens out and severely restricting travel for Chinese citizens. "China has noted that the United States has repeatedly expressed its willingness to provide assistance to China, and hopes that the relevant assistance will be provided soon," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said in a statement yesterday. .... An increasing number of countries - including South Korea, Japan, Britain, France, Turkey, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Iran, Belarus and Indonesia - have donated medical supplies. South Korea transported three million masks, 100,000 hazmat suits and 100,000 pairs of goggles in batches to Wuhan, while close ally Pakistan rounded up 300,000 medical masks, 800 hazmat suits and 6,800 pairs of gloves from public hospitals around the country to ship to China. Iran has also donated one million masks, while Britain brought in 50,000 gloves and 35,000 sets of protective suits and goggles on an evacuation chartered flight that later flew home 41 of its citizens. Yesterday, Ms Hua expressed gratitude to the Japanese for having donated large batches of masks, goggles and protective suits."

Thanks for the update. Is it 100 new cases just at that one hospital?

So far best response: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Is it because they all have mandatory military service for men and the people are more alert about incoming threats (from North Korea, China, Malaysia)? Something to consider?

People need to start wearing face masks, even home made ones help. Such a cheap/quick solution to slow the spread and save lives. This should be national policy. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/19/opinion/guidance-against-wearing-masks-coronavirus-is-wrong-you-should-cover-your-face/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

WHO.. or ChinaHO?

I think your analytical skills are not of the highest order. Can't speak to your intellectual capacity, however you have continuously minimized the threat of COVID and used your credentials as a cudgel to push your agenda. The data clearly shows you were wrong about a large number of undiagnosed cases of coronavirus in Jan/Feb, which you repeatedly claimed. Meanwhile, Dalal has been posting good info for weeks, and I don't care what his profession is. Credentialism is unnecessary. Jeez. I just have to weigh in here. Orthopa simply weighed in with some on-the-ground experience that ran counter to the prevailing wisdom. For which he was treated quite roughly. I appreciated his input, right or wrong. +1 Agreed.

Shutdown makes sense, but you can’t do it China style. How are you gonna mass detain people and force them into quarantine camps? How are you gonna force people to stay in their homes?

NYC can’t even lockdown the city when it’s the epicentre, how can you lockdown the whole country? Need to find a US solution, can’t just copy China.

Chinese style lockdown in US is not practical. Lots of guns in the US..

Why is 5% long-term earnings growth optimistic?

I think you have to shutdown high density areas like big cities. But it probably doesn't make sense to shutdown rural or mainly suburban areas. If people are careful, outbreaks will probably be rare, because no mass transit, lots of space per person, everyone drives, etc.

Everyone in China/Korea/Japan wears mask, clearly helps. We need to adopt these practices.

If you get coronavirus but have recovered. Would you show positive or negative on these tests? Also, would you be immune to the virus?

Not as deadly as originally imagined, but many times deadlier than flu. But because it’s not super deadly, it is also easier to spread.

Just wanted to focus back on the virus and investing. Any thoughts on worst case, base case, best case? Thoughts on market levels that you would buy at and why?

Shouldn't we focus on the curve by region? NY seems to be hit hardest. Washington/California has high caseloads but growth has not increased as dramatically. So it doesn't seem like the entire country is following the same curve. I think Cuomo has a good point, the Federal government should direct resources toward different parts of the country based on their curve & progress.

How would it preserve shareholder capital when those swaps would have pummeled the company the last 2 years when Fairfax's equity investments underperformed so much? It would have been better if the hedges were in place in 2019..

What’s the impact of prior pandemics on the economy?

Wow: Castanza's link: WHO (Jan 14): "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China." Was Trump lying or was he following WHO guidance like the rest of the world? Is every European government also lying? Clearly the outbreak and response is much worse in Europe..

There's reason for optimism. Spanish flu killed 100 million people in the midst of WWI and yet society did not collapse, the world goes on. Plus we have better science and technology today, so things should be better 5 to 10 years from now. Unless this is truly the beginning of the end and we all die.. then all bets are off. Which country are you in and why do think it has a bleak future?

Capacity during non-pandemic times is low to begin with since there’s little demand. But also the entire global supply chain was outsourced to China. China is requisitioning all the masks made in China.. So there’s inadequate domestic industrial capacity to ramp up production.

The WH was warned last year that the country isn't ready for a pandemic. Hopefully after this, people realize the importance of having the right leadership in place. So true. At least DT moved pretty quick with the travel bans. The Liberal government here in Canada was too woke to even travel ban. Even a few weeks ago Trudeau was eating at Chinese restaurants in Scarborough for photo op and to encourage people to eat out. Sad because we’ve experienced the SARS epidemic 15 year ago and still so ill-prepared. Hospitals here are asking for n95 mask donations now.