mcliu

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-malaria-drug.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Excerpt: "Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine. ... As of last year, Mr. Trump reported that his three family trusts each had investments in a Dodge & Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding was in Sanofi." Trump probably shouldn't be promoting cures, but this attack is absurd. Fake news? https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/dodge-cox-top-holdings/

Probably much more contagious.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/3m-makes-deal-with-white-house-says-canada-will-continue-to-receive-n95-masks-1.4885409 Ford initially said that a shipment of three million masks was turned around at the border, and that after a conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, he'd been able to secure 500,000. But Ontario government officials later said the premier was mistaken -- that the delayed shipment had only been 500,000 masks in the first place. Lose-lose situation. If you allow exports and there’s domestic shortages, you get blamed for killing hospital workers. If you ban exports, you get blamed for hurting other countries.

Not a nice move by the US. But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

It seems like the transmission rate for this virus is a lot higher than expected (which corresponds to a much lower fatality rate). Maybe because a there's a lot of asymptomatic/mild cases? Wearing masks will help because there's more protection for non-infected (marginally) but those infected would not be spreading virus to more vulnerable people.

Even in 2009 CPI dropped by only 5%. It's possible, but unlikely in a fiat world. Maybe they'll get a bump in value though. We'll see March #s soon. Maybe it's structured so they can settle early, get a bit more $ out of it..

US CPI Feb: 259 Deflation hedge strike: 231 Duration: 2.7 years EU CPI: 105 Strike: 96 Duration: 2.2 years Needs about 10% deflation to break-even. Have to see the #s for March, with O&G down so much, they might get a decent mark, but is there really a market to sell these securities? Maybe there's an early settlement clause?

U.S. gets to reap the benefits of having global corporate powerhouse firms like 3M that have moats and sell all over the world. Actions like this undermine those companies and longstanding relationships with Germany/France (NATO allies which are not valued these days). As was mentioned on here, actions like this should merely encourage Germany and France to cut out 3M in the future and grow their own in house firms. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/04/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-GQ4VHJ7T2ZGQPD3VUWO5W6QZRU Berlin backtracks after accusing U.S. of ‘piracy’ when 200,000 masks went missing A Berlin official, who accused the U.S. administration of “piracy” after 200,000 masks for the city police went missing, backtracked Saturday and said the masks were ordered from a German firm. In a statement distributed by the city mayor’s office and senate a day earlier, Andreas Geisel, Berlin’s senator for the interior, was quoted as saying a delivery of FFP2 masks only made it as far as Bangkok before it was “confiscated.” ... But Geisel wrote on Twitter on Saturday that he had clarified that the order was placed with a German firm and that supply chain issues were being “reviewed.” In a statement earlier Saturday, 3M had denied German news reports that it was the supplier in question.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people.. It's one thing to ban exports from your country to another, but another to do this: U.S. gets to reap the benefits of having global corporate powerhouse firms like 3M that have moats and sell all over the world. Actions like this undermine those companies and longstanding relationships with Germany/France (NATO allies which are not valued these days). As was mentioned on here, actions like this should merely encourage Germany and France to cut out 3M in the future and grow their own in house firms. FT: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/03e45e35-ab09-4892-899d-a86db08a935c 3M disputed the account, saying it has “no record of any order of respirators from China for the Berlin police”. German authorities were not available on Friday evening to explain the discrepancy. Don’t know what is real anymore. :o

This whole mask thing is being blown out of proportion by the media just because it’s Trump. If Canada faced the same problem as US and Toronto had 1,000 deaths everyday, we would ban our mask exports too. China also banned exports, they’re exporting now cause they don’t need it anymore. Also if the Trump tweet never happened and media found out about 3M expots, the headlines would be: “Trump exports N95 as US faces shortages.” It’s all just for clicks. You have a good point rb, but the govt is supposed to have policies that mitigates this, especially for critical materials and products. If you don’t produce, then have a stockpile. If you don’t stockpile, then be prepared to have the industry ready to ramp up. But we have neither.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people..

Who cares if Cuomo thanks China for sending 1,000 vents? U.S. isn't going to become communist by saying "thank you" when someone helps us during dire times. NY governor had to go to China to get around scum Kushner. That's the key fact to note here. One step at a time. Isolate America, take away allies. Divide America, exploit partisanship. Conquer America, elect friendlies to leadership. Same playbook in Canada/Australia and globally. https://unwatch.org/china-joins-u-n-human-rights-panel-will-help-pick-experts-on-free-speech-health-arbitrary-detention/ And who is "isolating America" and "taking away allies" more--China, or the guy telling 3M not to send masks to U.S. allies? The guy who likes trade wars? The guy who gets along better w Putin than the leaders of European nations/Canada/NATO? Your strategies to undermine America are more consistent with the propaganda war that's been waged by Russia against the U.S. (to elect Trump, well documented by intel agencies) as opposed to China. Divide America and isolate it indeed. Mission accomplished--for Putin. Yeah I agree with you on this point, Trump is pushing away allies when he should be aligning with them. China is making in roads. To be fair, Western political elites (on both side of spectrum) have done a poor job last 30 years. If they did a good job, Trump would never had a chance. Canada, Italy, Spain, maybe certain Eastern European countries, Czech all have opportunity to fall into Chinese influence. This is a long game, goes way beyond Trump. A 50 year game, we’re in year 30. Many authoritative states have already fallen in line. This is a huge opportunity for China to wedge between alliances into a global superpower/new world order. It’ll be kind of interesting to see what happens; sort of like an alternative reality of Soviet Union (but slightly less socialist but equally authoritative Chinese version) winning Cold War.

Who cares if Cuomo thanks China for sending 1,000 vents? U.S. isn't going to become communist by saying "thank you" when someone helps us during dire times. NY governor had to go to China to get around scum Kushner. That's the key fact to note here. One step at a time. Isolate America, take away allies. Divide America, exploit partisanship. Conquer America, elect friendlies to leadership. Same playbook in Canada/Australia and globally. https://unwatch.org/china-joins-u-n-human-rights-panel-will-help-pick-experts-on-free-speech-health-arbitrary-detention/

Trump is a passing phase, he has at most 4 more years left. Shouldn’t let the hate for Trump cloud the big picture. A substantial pivot to China/Comunist Party might result in today’s equivalent of the Soviet Union winning the Cold War. Would the world really be a better place? Many politician are falling in line. Time to 学中文？

China true friend of Canada?

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well? 3,000 to 15,000 deaths is an estimate over the course of the entire pandemic. Ontario model estimates that it may last up to 2 years (multiple waves). Do you have Hubei estimate for the entire pandemic? What is their estimate for the pandemic duration? I agree with you that Ontario is not managing all that well. However, you don't need to spin the numbers to make your case. Sorry, not trying to spin #s. I was just looking at slide 13 and it says over course of pandemic, doesn't list any assumptions. No idea about Hubei #s. Officially ~3000 deaths and pandemic basically over. Estimates over 10x those #s, who knows. Keep in mind there's 4x the population of Ontario and higher density. Also, Ontario currently has more deaths than Quebec but only half the # of cases?

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up. I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths. (It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.) Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well.. The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher.. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/ I trust muscle 10x more than China or Trudeau. Yeah, that's my point. This whole time Trudeau & co has been managing this crisis on the guidance of WHO and Chinese data. Hence, no travel ban, no masks, encouraging people to go out in February/early-March etc. That's why I felt it was mismanaged here. Early contact tracing seems to have worked for a while, but it was a delay, which should have been used to ramp up mass testing, PPE/ventilator production, hospital beds and hard lockdown, etc. But it seems like they've blown the lead. Even data collection has been weak. Cases figures don't add up. ICU's nearing capacity, but no exact bed count. Nothing like the data that NY state's been providing in Cuomo's briefings.

I think you're not really interested in an answer. If I'm wrong, the answer has been all over this thread. Go look it up. I'm surprised that you have so much faith in the transparency of the Chinese Communist Party in sharing the number of deaths. (It's still noteworthy that USA has a 5x per capita death rate compared to Canada. If you think Canada's managing this poorly, you must think that the USA is managing this horrendously.) Aren’t they projecting 150k deaths in the US? US definitely managed this horribly. There was opportunity for them to do very well had they acted early. But I’m not that optimistic about the situation in Canada. I think it’s being mismanaged here as well.. The federal heath minister just said there’s no reason to doubt Chinese #s. It’s a conspiracy that Chinese #s are higher.. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/

Projected 3,000 to 15,000 deaths in Ontario.. More than Hubei province in China, up to 5x more. How is Trudeau/Ford govt managing this well?

China not lying, all a big conspiracy: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-health-minister-says-canada-has-no-evidence-that-china-is-under/ Health Minister says Canada has no evidence that China is under-reporting virus impact “Ms. Hajdu was asked about China’s conduct in the wake of a report from Bloomberg News that said U.S. intelligence officals have told the White house Beijing has concealed the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak in China, where the novel coronavirus first appeared. “There is no indication that the data that came out of China in terms of their infection rate, and their death rate, was falsified in any way,” she told reporters at an Ottawa briefing Thursday. Asked whether the WHO data can be considered accurate if China’s data is not, Ms. Hadju then criticized a reporter who had asked questions about the matter. “Your question is feeding into conspiracy theories that many people have been perpetuating on the Internet,” Ms. Hajdu said. “There is no way to beat a global pandemic if we are actually not willing to work together as a globe.”

RichardGibbons post earlier about early response and lockdown contact tracing is good. I think the data seems to paint a much better picture than reports from hospitals. Even the PM admits today there’s a problem in terms of data collection. I think things are going to get much worse. Ontario will release models soon. Toronto density is a lot less than NYC though, with a much smaller population too. Trudeau vows better gathering and release of pandemic data “In Canada, there has been a wide discrepancy between the data that is provided by provincial authorities on a daily basis – in addition to different levels of transparency on internal projections.” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-vows-better-gathering-and-release-of-pandemic-data/ Ontario ICUs stressed by surge of COVID-19 cases https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/171923411597 COVID-19 cases in Ontario ICUs far higher than official figures Calls mount for Ottawa to release projections on COVID-19 spread https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-release-projections-covid-19-pandemic-1.5519253

It's fairly easy to criticize the US response by comparing it to Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, but they are very different countries compared to the US with very different populations and politics and mistrust of China. Obviously, the US federal government did some appropriate things like travel ban and some inappropriate things like failing to ramping up testing, screening, PPE protection. But even Deborah Birx said that when Wuhan happened she was still in Africa and based on the Chinese data and WHO guidance, scientists thought it was a much more contained epidemic like the original SARS. Also, although the lockdown of Wuhan in China was effective, there are many reports on Chinese social media (obviously cannot be verified) of various rolling lock-downs and flare-ups. That's with everyone wearing masks. So it might not be the best long-term strategy.

Nope, I don't have a timeline, but if you want to spend a couple hours putting one together, I'd love to see it. I vaguely recall the restaurant thing. It was a long time ago, probably associated with Chinese New Year on Feb 2, not late Feb/early March. The primary things Canada's done very well is data collection, testing, and tracking cases--for weeks at the beginning of the outbreak, BC was ahead of USA, and as of March 16, Canada had done 50% more testing than USA. Second, Canada did the lockdowns at roughly the right time. The combination of these two things has had the result that nowhere in Canada is completely overloaded now, with per-capita cases way lower than the USA, and growth rates lower, too. Closing the border against the primary country where COVID-19 is skyrocketing (USA) was also well-done, both in terms of timing and diplomacy. In terms of actions the countries will take over the next few months, I'd expect that USA will ramp up faster/better than Canada, both because USA will be better at ramping up supply chains, and because USA will need it more. Thanks RichardGibbons. I really hope you're right and we're not just later on the curve. I think the Chinese community here were really ahead of this; even in late January/early Feb, many people were starting to self-isolate after visiting China and wearing face masks. Yes, Trudeau visited Chinese restaurant on Feb 1 for Chinese New Year. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-canada-trudeau-february-1-1.5448834 But he also visited on Mar 5, as per his FB. Also, no social distancing in those photos. https://www.facebook.com/JustinPJTrudeau/posts/in-scarborough-and-across-the-country-chinese-canadians-have-helped-make-our-com/10158655284655649/ Here is the Edmonton Journal timeline, probably have to take a grain of salt since they're pretty anti-JT/Liberals out West: https://edmontonjournal.com/news/national/the-road-to-canadas-covid-19-outbreak-timeline-of-federal-government-failure-at-border-to-slow-the-virus/ In terms of cases, as per Financial Times, Canada is tracking UK with 1 week lag. Under US, but with significantly less testing: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1 In terms of death, Canada is tracking US, with 2 weeks lag, but maybe it'll flatten because we've had 2 weeks of social-distancing: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126/photo/1 Here's what worries me: COVID-19 cases in Ontario ICUs far higher than official figures https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1717764163674 "With no factory in Canada, domestic production of N95 masks is still months away" https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-searching-masks-international-1.5517276

Nope. I'm not a Trudeau fan, but what he did was mostly right. The biggest mistake he made was waiting too late to close the borders (perhaps taking into account the recommendations of the WHO, under the influence of China). The second biggest mistake was shoving support for Canadians through the EI system, but he rectified fairly quickly with the 75% salary thing. In contrast, other than the smart closing of the border to China, Trump has done more than anyone else on earth, except possibly Xi, to maximize the deaths caused by the pandemic. Do you have a timeline that shows what Trudeau did was mostly right? I still remember him encouraging people going to eat at Chinese restaurants (on FB) in Late Feb / early March. It feels like we’ve been a many steps behind the US. Even today, data collection is spotty and testing is slow with a big backlog..

Spot on. The lack of basic understanding shown in early stages of this is beyond belief. I still believe they are downplaying the true possible numbers here. Two more weeks and we will know, by tomorrow US will likely have 200K+ infections. Shouldn’t PM Trudeau in Canada also be guilty of these war crimes? Basically all the political elite in Western countries should face trial?