mcliu

@wabuffo, thanks for the detailed posts, really interesting stuff

What's the impact on CRE if even 20% of people WFM (either permanent, or just taking 1 day off a week to WFH)?

Not sure about optics with Paul Rivett, it is a little perplexing. But the deal itself is not a "sweetheart deal". If anything, Torstar's fairly/overvalued at these prices. There's cash, but also a lot of liabilities, AP, provisions, pension liabilties. FCF in 2019 was ($9M) and ($20M) after capex. There's no indication that'll stop. They'll probably have to inject more working capital if the bleeding continues or accelerates, especially with this whole COVID situation. VerticalScope made $18M in 2019, maybe less this year, but has close to $145M in net debt, so equity is probably not worth very much. It's nowhere near the $100M that they're carrying it at on the books. If you adjust the balance sheets and net out liabilities, there's really not much equity left. Also, advertising $ is going to take a big hit. Very few newspapers will survive and this is the Toronto Star, not NYT or WSJ. It was a stupid investment to begin with, so they're lucky to get some money out.

Maybe by lowering cost of capital and keeping firms alive, they’re create excess capacity that won’t rationalize?

They didn’t have Zoom back then though. A lot of knowledge work (marketing, accounting, finance, law, programming) can be done remotely.

It's hard to distinguish the ones that are investing margins for growth like Amazon and ones that just have bad business models. Financial statements just show losses in both cases.

Good luck with new job!

https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Fairfax-Announces-Pricing-of-Senior-Notes-Offering/default.aspx US$650M 10Y 4.625%

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-u-s-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free-idUSKCN21Y2GB The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official. Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

Maybe he's selling BK to buy shares in another bank. BK probably under more NIM pressure with lower rates than other money center banks.

USA Virus: The Chinese Government Has Convinced Its Citizens That the U.S. Army Brought Coronavirus to Wuhan https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxe9yq/the-chinese-government-has-convinced-its-citizens-that-the-us-army-brought-coronavirus-to-wuhan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-prices/how-covid-19-affected-u-s-consumer-prices-in-march-idUSKCN21S20H?il=0

Yes, the mainstream media should be all over a silly spat between China and an Australia newspaper. That should distract us from the mass graves being dug in NYC: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/video-shows-giant-trench-getting-built-nyc-s-hart-island-n1181056 Don’t mean that specifically but the role China and WHO played in all this. Should be investigative reporting on the cover up. And WHO/Tedros/China connection. And censorship of Taiwan. Also, the misinformation campaigns being waged against Taiwan and world right now. If world and media doesn’t investigate this, it’ll just repeat again. Just like coverup of SARS I in 2003.

The mainstream media here should be all over this story but it’s too busy hating on Trump. Huge disservice to the people. Also, finally a story about Canada’s slow response: Government documents reveal a slow start to Canada's COVID-19 response https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-government-documents-1.5528726

@MDs of cobf, Any thoughts or anecdotes on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat cv? Thanks

But what about the folks that brought us WWI and then WWII. ::)

Also don’t forget deep mistrust of PRC and better on the ground intelligence for govt and population (same language) Less reliant on WHO.

The mainstream media should be all over the WHO and China cover-up story, instead they're focusing everything on trying to "get" Trump at his press conferences. I think the media has taken their anti-Trump stance too far and it's sending an anti-American message to the world. I suspect that because Trump calls out China/WHO, the media will start defending China/WHO.. Interesting times.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm “It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.”

@spartan Thanks for sharing. What was the RE scheme?

NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-malaria-drug.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Excerpt: "Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine. ... As of last year, Mr. Trump reported that his three family trusts each had investments in a Dodge & Cox mutual fund, whose largest holding was in Sanofi." Trump probably shouldn't be promoting cures, but this attack is absurd. Fake news? https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/dodge-cox-top-holdings/

Probably much more contagious.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/3m-makes-deal-with-white-house-says-canada-will-continue-to-receive-n95-masks-1.4885409 Ford initially said that a shipment of three million masks was turned around at the border, and that after a conversation with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, he'd been able to secure 500,000. But Ontario government officials later said the premier was mistaken -- that the delayed shipment had only been 500,000 masks in the first place. Lose-lose situation. If you allow exports and there’s domestic shortages, you get blamed for killing hospital workers. If you ban exports, you get blamed for hurting other countries.

Not a nice move by the US. But also, Canada should have been stockpiling in Jan/Feb.

It seems like the transmission rate for this virus is a lot higher than expected (which corresponds to a much lower fatality rate). Maybe because a there's a lot of asymptomatic/mild cases? Wearing masks will help because there's more protection for non-infected (marginally) but those infected would not be spreading virus to more vulnerable people.