UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-30/federal-reserve-s-chief-jawboner-powell-slows-down-to-let-data-do-the-talking?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall Speaking at a Brookings Institution event on Wednesday, Powell checked the shock and awe at the door and instead offered one of his most candid assessments yet of how little he knew about the path forward. Responding to a question about why the Fed hadn’t chosen a more aggressive path, he said: We’re in a position where the right thing to do is to move really quickly, as we have, and now slow down and get to that place where we think we need to be. And by the way, there’s high uncertainty around that. You know we have a broad set of thoughts about where that destination might be, but we could be wrong. It could be higher than that, it could even be lower than that. We’ll have to see. Seems like suggestion from Powell himself not to be so sure about either scenario anymore:)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-28/us-housing-enters-deep-freeze-with-sellers-and-buyers-sidelined?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-us-have-ways-manage-nuclear-risks-ria-cites-us-diplomat-2022-11-28/ "The United States has channels for managing risk with the Russian Federation, particularly nuclear risks and that was the purpose of CIA director Burns' meeting with his Russian counterpart," Rood said in a video on RIA's Telegram channel.

I am repeating myself, but I think at this point it is better not to stick to one of the scenarios (transitory or not) too strongly. There are valid arguments on both sides: labor costs is still increasing perhaps to much and it is a negative for inflation (however covid savings also are running out, so maybe bigger wages will only compensate for that?), while costs of goods/commodities and especially shelter are turning into obvious positives. But who knows for sure? And even if someone think he does I am afraid the world is too uncertain to deliver surely predicted outcomes. I turned over like 2/3 of my portfolio in the last 3 month, from very defensive and almost mostly shorter duration (value) to neutral on the defensiveness (+- fully invested) and ~50/50 on short (value) / long (growth), with no positions with large leverage in either bucket, and I think it is the best way to go for me at this point. Market as the whole is still really not cheap enough to become more aggressive, but it is also not to dangerously expensive I think and there are really good opportunities if you look at individual companies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/carrying-these-in-your-wallet-is-a-big-mistake-warns-fraud-expert-ex-con-artist-frank-abagnale.html

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2022/11/27/president-joe-biden-starts-to-lift-sanctions-on-venezuela Venezuela sits on 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, more than any other country. The war in Ukraine has made everyone more nervous about oil supplies, and therefore made the cost of isolating Venezuela seem higher. After decades of mismanagement Venezuela’s oil industry is too run-down to make much difference to global oil markets in the short term, but America and others are thinking about the long term.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-moscow-fa5db922708b22b212f546b2f84a7cfb “We must understand that the whole world is watching us. We are the largest state and when we do not have socks, shorts, doctors, intelligence, communications, or simply care for our children, questions arise that will be very difficult to answer,” he said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/china-covid-unrest-boils-over-as-citizens-defy-lockdown-efforts?srnd=premium-europe The widespread dissent has raised concern that the government may respond with a crackdown to stifle further protests. “I think a crackdown is predictable. I think that will happen,” said Link at the University of California. “The determination that a man like Xi Jinping has to fight back is ironclad. He'll go to the mat.”

Youtube is awesome:)

Yesterday I heard Oleksiy Arestovych interview on a radio and I understand that a lot of it was one sided and propaganda etc, but I think he also provided some interesting speculations about how this could end. So, as Xerxes suggest, he also sees a possible move by a "system", but is very skeptical, that the outcome of changing Putin would be any different and more likely even worse. So then he said the confidence in Russia's army and Putin is almost broken, but to end everything you have to break confidence in Russia itself and for that you have to make some more breakthroughs as in Kharkiv and better yet to take Crimea back. Then you would hope and watch for some regional fission in Russia itself. These were only speculations and for now all they want is, like no_free_lunch suggests, to Russian army from Ukraine (not negotiating until then) and the only thing they need for that is more western weapons arriving faster, because currently they are still delivered too slowly, forcing them to stop/accumulate before major moves ant allowing Russians to take a breath/regroup. And on possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, he said that Russians recently were informed very clearly about possible consequences of doing this, and said that one of them is that Putin himself then would become a target and therefore he thinks that he clearly got the message on this subject.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-24/kremlin-faces-rising-ire-from-wives-mothers-of-mobilized-troops?srnd=premium-europe In a video appeal posted by Verstka on Nov. 9, the wife of one those mobilized said his company commander revealed that only about 30 out of 200 men had made it to safety after they came under fire in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine. In another video posted a day later by a group of 20 women on the Russian border with Ukraine, they vowed to go to the front line to recover their husbands and sons and brothers. “If they don’t come out and help us, we’ll go, including a pregnant girl,” one of them said, adding that their relatives were without body armor or helmets and dragging wounded comrades with them.

Try this version: https://youtu.be/aon40XWsRwU

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-24/china-regulator-s-new-buzzword-fuels-buying-spree-in-state-firms?leadSource=uverify wall A new term coined by China’s securities chief has investors debating whether it implies a premium for state-owned firms and companies better aligned with national goals. A “valuation system with Chinese characteristics” has become the latest buzzword, after China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman devised the term during a speech this week and proposed a new method of valuing state, private and foreign controlled firms.

I agree. Nothing is certain 100 per cent, but I think it is more likely than not, that FFH shares could return 2x in 2-3 years just based on very good analysis/assumptions provided by Viking. I think the market is still to slow to recognize all these changes of the last few years and FFH I think is still underowned and underfollowed (at least in other places than COBF:)) and if they will deliver (nothing heroic but no nonsense also) it could easily trade at 1.5 BV or 10-12 earnings and at that range it would only be a fair value.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-eyes-opec-production-increase-ahead-of-embargo-price-cap-on-russian-oil-11669040336

It is one of my favourite movies, used to watch it every second year or so when was younger:) It remainds me somehow another my favourite and perhaps also always timely movie:)

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/fairfax-stake-in-bengaluru-airport-not-for-sale-prem-watsa/articleshow/95647494.cms "We are creating a brand-new city. We can't do too much in Bangalore because it is built up. That's why we are building an airport city," said Watsa. Watsa and BIAL chief executive Hari Marar outlined plans for the airport city, which will span 463 acres and have office parks, hotels, shopping, entertainment, medical tourism and education. "In the next eight to 10 years, our aim is to develop a smart, sustainable and vibrant airport city with business parks, IT parks, a medical district with a world-class multi-specialty hospital, academic institutions, concert arena, over 2,500 hotel rooms and a world-class retail, dining and entertainment district," said Marar. Fairfax has spent Rs 12,500 crore on development of the airport, which it took control of five years ago. The new terminal is expected to be open to travellers in December. "With the success of Bangalore international airport and under Hari's leadership with Anchorage, we will be expanding on further projects of infrastructure, particularly airports," Watsa said. "It will take a bit of time, but we are focused on getting it done." Anchorage was set up as a corporate entity under Fairfax India to house the airport and infrastructure businesses of the investment giant in the country. Fairfax outlined plans for an initial public offering of Anchorage in 2019 in its annual report. The entity was floated in the same year. However, it has not initiated the share sale process. "We are not under any pressure to do an IPO in a specified time," Watsa said. He didn't elaborate. "India is the number one country in the world to invest in, and India is booming," he said. "IPOs will come back again; unicorns will come back again." Marar said he expects a boom in the aviation sector over the next three years. "Passenger traffic has crossed pre-Covid levels, at least on the domestic front," he said. "International travel will also come back. It has supply side constraints because of lack of aircraft. We can expect 10-12% CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) in the next three to four years."