UK

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/americas-biggest-landlords-cant-find-houses-to-buy-either-ea893213?mod=hp_lead_pos2 “The reality is the rental-rate increases, as aggressive as they’ve been, have not kept up with home-price appreciation,” he said.

This is a very good point! So from almost 17 to 13 per cent. Almost all improvement in CR and all structural? Also, if I recall correctly, Prem talked about scale needed, while was acused for empire building...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/only-fund-beating-nasdaq-long-term-is-defying-stock-picking-odds?srnd=premium-europe For active managers, the math is stark. Out of thousands of mutual funds, literally only one beat the Nasdaq 100 over the last five, 10 and 15 years. It did so by boiling down stock picks to about two dozen companies and riding almost all of them to gains. ... The futility of playing against benchmarks like the Nasdaq 100 was underlined in a report last month by Bloomberg Intelligence, then got a widespread public airing by investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said indexes provided superior gains “without you having to do any work or diligence.” Turns out intellect and hard work are pretty useless, too, thanks to dynamics that have increasingly come to dominate the active-management debate. ... “We buy small positions and don’t sell,” Ron Baron, who has been running the fund since its 1992 launch, explained from his office. “The process is to try to find great businesses that have competitive advantage.” Case in point: The fund first invested in Tesla in 2014. By 2020, it was about a third of the portfolio, Bloomberg data show, which finally prompted the team to reluctantly trim its position to assuage concerned clients. It hasn’t bought any additional shares since, but the electric car maker is now 41% of its long positions again. Its second-largest holding is Space Exploration Technologies Corp., a private company also run by Elon Musk. The rest include everything from Charles Schwab Corp. to Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-tactics-put-russia-on-the-defensive-in-the-black-sea-4d3f492d?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Commercial vessels have entered Ukraine’s main port of Odesa without asking permission from Russia for the first time since the war began—showing just how much the balance of power has changed in the Black Sea. By imposing an asymmetrical war that relies on domestically produced naval drones and missiles, and that targets Russians ships in their own home bases, Ukraine has eroded much of Russia’s vaunted naval superiority. Now, it is taking the battle to Russia itself.

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China! https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/ I knew it was not good idea to point a finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent? Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) in the last 10 years. But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. Also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

Thanks. Is it this one: https://youtu.be/gpxl2exX9uY?si=FpD6A8ecxjI61bQS ?

Since I am entitled to a different opinion...:) https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/09/12/the-annual-cost-of-the-war-in-afghanistan-since-2001-infographic/ If US spent almost 1T or 50 B per year in this case for God knows what reasons, I would argue it would be almost no brainer to spend half of this sum yearly for some time in Ukraine for a many good reasons. Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

I understand. But it still looks more like a growing pains, than some insurmountable problems. Mostly everything is fixable. People are still flocking to North America like crazy, not without a reason. Were else on earth is a better place?

However, what is also interesting: And while such distress does seem to be fueling an increase in properties available for sale, there’s still such a shortage of inventory that prices haven’t substantially fallen. It’s all threatening to further aggravate the shortage of all housing types in Canada, hurting homebuyers and renters alike. “Everything is in a really bad place right now,” said Danielle Levy, a real estate broker in Toronto who works with both buyers and renters. “People aren’t able to afford the rent. People are not able to afford paying their mortgage. People are not able to fulfill their goal to purchase a home to start a new life with their families. We need a lot more supply in the market.” It seems this is also the case in other previously hot markets, like Australia, Great Britain etc. This article points to some interesting reasons: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/09/06/the-growing-global-movement-to-restrain-house-prices Like: In many English-speaking countries, inspired by Victorian worries about “slums”, planning laws tended to prioritise detached houses. For urban planners, such as Ebenezer Howard, density was seen as akin to crowding. In packed industrial hotspots, “downzoning” and slum clearance were used to flatten cities and spread them out by force. The writer George Orwell was sceptical of the proceedings: “If people are going to live in large towns at all they must learn to live on top of one another,” he declared. But he reckoned that many workers in Britain did not “take kindly to flats”. Today far fewer citizens of English-speaking countries live in flats than elsewhere. In England 80% of people now dwell in houses, and just 6% in flats in buildings taller than three storeys. In France 44% of people live in apartments, as opposed to houses. In cities including Dublin, Los Angeles and Sydney, sprawl is running out of road. At the densities allowed by law, almost all of the land within a reasonable commute of city centres has already been “built out”. Instead, new subdivisions are built in separate towns, perhaps 50 or 60 miles away from the core, with residents typically facing punishing commutes by car to work. (In Britain these workers typically leap over the “green belts” around cities within which construction is mostly illegal.) Anyway, maybe except for the Sweden and some regional markets, so far housing prices seems to be holding up or even begin to rise again in some places.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/canada-rental-market-squeezed-as-landlords-face-brunt-of-high-interest-rates?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/berkshire-shows-unusual-risk-appetite-in-wildfire-court-fight?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

If I had to bet at the gunpoint, I would bet on: https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/20/ukraines-spymaster-has-got-under-the-kremlins-skin "Yet his bravado is not universally welcomed. Leaked documents show that the cia had to intervene to stop General Budanov from ordering an attack on Moscow on the anniversary of the invasion in February. Sabotage and the raids inside Russia since have heightened worries among Ukraine’s allies about provoking a nuclear power."

Sometimes energy loss because of these "thesis drift" situations just isn't worth it. It is pity stock doesn't cares or know how you fell though:)

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/17/an-interview-with-the-head-of-ukraines-defence-intelligence

Together with China's big tech (and some added leverage) I sold more then half of my very over sized (>60 per cent) BRK position last year to buy UMG, META, GOOGL, AMZN and to add substantially to FFH and JOE, and a few smaller things. DIdn't plan for this, but after unexpectedly quick reversal, I am almost out of magnificent and similar stuff, except for still owning some 60 per cent of initial META position. But after exiting margin first, instead of bying back BRK, this year I mostly only added to JOE and even more so to FFH. So for the first time FFH is larger position for me than BRK and substantially, so I hope that the statement about their quality stands:)

I know nothing about DG, but generally I think this is very true and important. It is also one of the main mistakes I unfortunately had to learn from myself, especially if that lower quality also involves leverage. Ironically for me it also involved moving somewhat from BRK to make such a mistake a last time. Now I am almost afraid to touch it in order to buy "something better":) I have saved this quote as one of my top checklist item: "The chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low quality securities at times of favorable business conditions"- Benjamin Graham This is maybe also very interesting to consider in terms BRK vs FFH, as currently their valuations is still quite diverge, while quality is seemingly converging. I think and hope that the term "low quality", especially speaking of their insurance operation, is not applicable to FFH anymore. So far I did not yet sold any BRK to buy FFH, as there were better candidates.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/xi-s-security-obsession-turns-ordinary-citizens-into-spy-hunters?srnd=premium-europe “At the time of economic pressure, there are quite obvious concerns at the top leadership,” said Katja Drinhausen, head of the politics and society program at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Using collective fear as a way to build political and social cohesion is a very dangerous game to play.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/iphone-maker-foxconn-aims-to-double-india-investment-employment?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg Apple Inc. partner Foxconn Technology Group plans to double its investment and employment in India, highlighting an accelerating manufacturing shift away from China as Washington-Beijing tensions grow. ... The investment plans of the Taiwanese company, also known for its flagship unit Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., include a 300-acre site close to the airport in Bengaluru, the capital of Karnataka, Bloomberg News previously reported. That plant is likely to assemble iPhones and expected to create about 100,000 jobs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-18/stocks-euphoria-in-india-draws-warning-from-top-performing-fund?srnd=premium-europe “You are in a market where if you think about a stock from an investment point of view, it rises 40% before you even decide to buy it,” Bhan told Bloomberg News in an interview at his Mumbai office. “That is clearly reflective of froth,” said Bhan, who oversees the equivalent of $17.4 billion in equity assets under management.

https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/twinkie-hostess-brands-smucker-deal-4cc72302?mod=hp_lead_pos9 Ten years ago, the unthinkable happened: Twinkies disappeared. Hostess Brands, maker of the golden, cream-filled sponge cake, declared bankruptcy for the second time in a decade. The company closed its factories and began liquidation proceedings, sparking a run on supermarkets as shoppers filled their carts with Twinkies, Ho Hos and other edible specimens of Americana they thought they might never be able to buy again. What happened next was a dramatic comeback that few could have anticipated. Two investment firms rescued the snack cakes, paying $410 million for Hostess’s brands and kicking off a decadelong fix-up job. Then came a dogged quest for efficiency and a determined search for the next Twinkie, all of which culminated this week in a deal to sell Hostess to J.M. Smucker for $4.6 billion.

Thanks!

Wow, what a passimism from 2025, never saw this, what is the source of this table?

Thanks for comment. While discussing bonds vs equities I somehow always tend to think in terms of very long term bonds, which could mislead and I do not like them most, especially for buy and hold. I admit, that under certain circumstances, depending on valuations and alternatives, I would go up to 30 per cent (or even more, but perhaps very unlikely) cash or short term bonds (or even longer term) and was in a such position for a quite few times in the past. But also, looking historically, 10 year rates were perhaps like 6 per cent and it was considered normal, while at the same time dotcom craze was going on successfully for quite a while. Just because now they are back to something more or less normal, perhaps does not necessarely mean the end of the world and I am not sure if it automatically merits large allocation, especially if absolute levels are still nothing special (and under required IRR, at least for me) and one can still find equities, providing at least 8-10 expected returns (even BRK still likely clears such a hurdle), if we are talking about longer term horizon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-15/beyond-the-ai-euphoria-is-a-worrying-stock-signal-on-us-growth Look past the exuberance for all things artificial intelligence and you find a stock market backdrop where confidence in American growth is far less robust than it seems. It’s in the dispiriting performance of banks and industrial companies, barely eking out gains in 2023 while the likes of Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. double and triple. Pessimism is visible in versions of major benchmarks that pare down the influence of megacaps, such as the equal-weight S&P 500, up a relatively paltry 4% so far this year. Also alarming is the performance of small-cap stocks, whose charts show worrying signals barely seen over the past two decades. The Russell 2000 has fallen behind an index of the 1000 largest-capitalization stocks for the second month in a row, on track for its second-worst annual underperformance since 1998.