UK

Copper was mentioned in the discussion but it relates to other types of commodities and their ability to store value over long term as well. In a sense, that using them as a store of value you aren't you also making some bet against human ingenuity? Basically you own something that a. does not produce any interest, rent or fcf, but b. at the same time still carries some risk of being disrupted (produced cheaper etc). This is more philosophical / long term idea, not some forecast on any particular commodity price, but isn't it right? Now, well run businesses, involved in producing commodities, especial if they do this by being cost efficient or adding value another way, is completely different and much better bet in my opinion. For another, maybe somewhat crazy, example consider results of tobacco vs tobacco companies over history:)? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-27/this-startup-may-have-the-key-to-unlock-millions-of-tons-of-copper In what could prove a game changer for global supply, a US startup says it’s solved a puzzle that has frustrated the mining world for decades. If successful, the discovery by Jetti Resources could unlock millions of tons of new copper to feed power grids, building sites and car fleets around the globe, narrowing and possibly even closing the deficit. At its simplest, Jetti’s technology is focused on a common type of ore that traps copper behind a thin film, making it too costly and difficult to extract. The result is that vast quantities of metal have been left stranded over the decades in mine-waste piles on the surface, as well as in untapped deposits. To crack the code, Jetti has developed a specialized catalyst to disrupt the layer, allowing rock-eating microbes to go to work at releasing the trapped copper.The technology still needs to be proven on a large scale. But the riches at stake are pulling in some of the industry’s most powerful players.BHP Group, the biggest mining company, is already an investor and has now spent months negotiating for a trial plant at its crown jewel copper mine, Escondida in Chile, according to people familiar with the matter. US miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc. began implementing Jetti’s technology at an Arizona mine this year, while rival Rio Tinto Group is planning to roll out a competing but similar process.

Very interesting, thanks!

Thanks for you answer!

Not sure how will play it but so far: "Anecdotal real-time data point to sharp drops in the use of roads and public transport as fear of the virus constrains activity in much the same way as official lockdowns. The development is a fresh blow to an economy that needs consumer demand to mitigate the chilling effect of a chronic real-estate crisis. It suggests that consumer-facing indicators, such as retail sales, are likely to fall further before herd immunity can kick in."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/us-blacklists-more-china-tech-companies-escalating-trade-fight?srnd=premium-europe There were some positive developments recently, especially on geopolitical rethorics from ccp and then this 180 turn around on covid (not sure how it will end thougt), but it seems that US just escallates more and more. And Chinas RE situation and economy is not getting better at all. Also re shareholder returns, audit solution is great, but what is interesting, that there are no major positive changes on big tech: didi, tencents games, ant ipo anything? So far seems no change on attitude in big tech from ccp? Found this / on big tech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-leaders-plot-pivot-back-toward-boosting-economy-11671103324?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Separately, government officials in recent weeks have begun re-examining policies for the technology and education sectors—two of the hardest-hit targets of recent regulatory campaigns—and are preparing to wrap up long-running investigations against internet companies. One such move would allow ride-hailing company Didi Global Inc.’s mobile apps to be restored to domestic app stores, according to people familiar with the issue.

No no, it is not me:), just funny illustration of impact to portfolio after FEDs hawkish talk:)

https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript TE: Are your allies holding you back in any way from advancing on Crimea? VZ: I can’t answer the question of whether they are holding back or not. I will simply state the facts. In order to reach the borders of Crimea, as of today we need to cover a distance of 84km to Melitopol. By the way, this is enough for us, because Melitopol would give us a full fire control of the land corridor, because from Melitopol we can already fire at the Crimean Isthmus, with the very same himars and so on. Why am I saying this to you? Because it goes back to my earlier point about resources. I can calculate, based on the task at hand, what kind of resource is needed to build combat capability. We are talking about the scale of World War One…that is what Antony Radakin [Britain’s top soldier] told me. When I told him that the British Army fired a million shells in World War One, I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” When they say, “You get 50,000 shells”, the people who count the money faint. The biggest problem is that they really don’t have it. With this kind of resources I can’t conduct new big operations, even though we are working on one right now. It is on the way, but you don’t see it yet. We use a lot fewer shells. I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 ifvs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory. TE: What do you make of Russia’s mobilisation? VZ: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.

Thanks for sharing your perspective! I do not think it is off the topic at all.

What would be your view in terms of probabilities, that market will test previous lows or reach substantial new lows, say 3000 or below, in the next 6-12 month?

I am not sure what to expect either, so my answer to this now is not to have strong opinion and to have approximately equal split between more value/short duration and more growth/long duration assets. Also re what fed has said, situation is of course somewhat different (inflation currently), but I remember very well (because I waited for more better prices and somewhat missed that opportunity), how stocks went down almost 20 per cent in the end of 2018, after fed telegraphed policy normalization and then they just changed their minds abruptly and all opportunities quickly were gone. I am no way expecting them to do the same now or in near term, but they surely can and will change their mind how much to increase and how long to hold rates higher if situation with inflation/economy/etc will be different in 6 month. But today already you can find some really good opportunities in the market I believe, especially between individual stocks. But is it a time to be very aggressive, I think it is not.

My understanding is that Patriot systems is needed for possible balistic missille atacks, and thee could also come from Iran in the future. RE drones, they say in a video one round / 6 bullets of this "creature" is enought to take one drone down:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/crypto-exchange-binance-temporarily-halts-usdc-stablecoin-withdrawals.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/crypto-s-binance-seeks-to-reassure-over-reserves-says-debt-free?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflations-cold-case-11670949172 Moreover, that gain was driven by an increase in shelter costs. These largely reflect rents, since the Labor Department measures homeowners’ housing costs by calculating what it would cost them to rent their homes. Lately rent prices have been cooling, with data from rental marketplace Apartment List showing them falling during each of the past three months, for example. But because the Labor Department’s rent measures reflect not just newly signed rents but existing leases, it is slow to pick up such shifts. So the Labor Department’s shelter-cost measure seems destined to slow in the months ahead—something of which the Fed is well aware. Exclude shelter costs and core prices fell by about 0.1% in each of the last two months. Those were the first declines since May 2020. Meanwhile, the combination of easing supply-chain problems, cooling consumer demand, weakness overseas and many retailers’ still too-high inventories should continue to put downward pressure on goods prices. And while there is some worry that rising labor costs could lead to protracted services inflation, services prices excluding rents have eased in each of the past two months. It isn’t a given that every inflation report in the months ahead will show such unambiguous signs of cooling as Tuesday’s, but inflation’s temperature will keep dropping all the same.

https://stratechery.com/2022/ai-homework/

Very bizarre indeed, maybe after everything what has happened or for some other reasons he/they do not care about how everything looks like to the world anymore.

A company I used to work for and me personally always used insurance brokers for reasons you described, but thar was like more than 10 years ago. Nowdays I just put some basic numbers in some brokers or agregators website or app and instantly receive up to 6 different offers. You could stop here, but ussualy I pick the lowest offer and go directly (to save some commision) to insurers website to make a final deal. I understand that insurer brokers still provides value for more complex products, but in case of auto insurance, at least in my countr, this business line seems like was very disrupted by internet.

Time to rewatch this movie: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798709/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-05/the-worst-of-europe-s-energy-crisis-isn-t-over-electricity-blackouts-loom The other is that although prices are lower than in July and August, they remain high enough to kill the manufacturing sector. When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, many executives braced themselves for a six-week energy crisis; soon, they realized it would last at least six months. Now they fear it’s going to be six years. Last week, Thomas Schaefer, one of the most senior executives at Volkswagen AG, publicly said what many other business people and policy makers had only raised in private. “When it comes to the cost of electricity and gas, in particular, we are losing more and more ground,” he said, warning that unless prices fall quickly, investment in Europe will be “practically unviable.” The reality is: Energy prices remain extremely high, the continent is at the mercy of the weather, the cost of subsidies is rising at an unsustainable pace, and companies are warning of deindustrialization. Call me a pessimist, but it doesn’t sound like the worst is over to me. That’s because it isn’t.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-drone-warfare-russia-732jsshpx “We’re still using the same escalatory calculations but the fear of escalation has changed since the beginning,” a US defence source told The Times. “It’s different now. This is because the calculus of war has changed as a result of the suffering and brutality the Ukrainians are being subjected to by the Russians.” Washington is now less concerned that new long-range strikes inside Russia could lead to a dramatic escalation. Moscow’s revenge attacks have to date all involved conventional missile strikes against civilian targets. Previously, the Pentagon was warier of Ukraine attacking Russia because it feared the Kremlin would retaliate either with tactical nuclear weapons or by targeting neighbouring Nato nations. However, Washington does not want to be seen publicly giving the green light to Kyiv attacking Russian soil. Its position on Ukraine’s attacks inside Russia was defined this week by Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, who said: “We have neither encouraged nor enabled the Ukrainians to strike inside of Russia.” However, a US defence source said: “We’re not saying to Kyiv, ‘Don’t strike the Russians [in Russia or Crimea]’. We can’t tell them what to do. It’s up to them how they use their weapons. But when they use the weapons we have supplied, the only thing we insist on is that the Ukrainian military conform to the international laws of war and to the Geneva conventions. The drone Ukraine wants more than any other is the American MQ-1C Gray Eagle, which has a range of 250 miles, is armed with four Hellfire missiles or eight Stinger missiles, can remain airborne for more than 24 hours and is equipped with sophisticated reconnaissance systems. Eric Edelman, who was a top policy specialist at the Pentagon and worked with the state department as ambassador to Finland and Turkey, believes the delay in supplying such weapon systems is no longer sustainable. “The administration is excessively self-deterred by the prospect of an alleged escalatory spiral which is largely illusory,” he said. “The best thing for all concerned is for the Ukrainians to be able to win as quickly as possible. Hence it makes sense to give them ATACMS and Gray Eagles and help them to put together a package of main battle tanks as well.” The prospect of waves of Ukrainian drones heading towards Russian military bases raised concerns among the Russian military. “We are not in a position to effectively counter these drones,” an unnamed Russian soldier told the Volya Telegram channel. “There will be massive raids on air bases inside Russia, as well as on other military and infrastructure targets. In theory, they can even get to Moscow.” The British defence ministry said the Kremlin was likely to consider the drone attacks to be among Russia’s “most strategically significant failures” since the start of the war. “Psychologically, I think it strikes a blow,” a western official said. The attacks, together with setbacks on the battlefield, look certain to further undermine the Russian public’s support for the invasion. Only one in four Russians want their army to continue fighting in Ukraine, according to leaked Kremlin polls. State television has even discussed the prospect of Russia losing the war, warning of “catastrophic” consequences for the country if that happens. In public, Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to insist that their “special military operation” will be a success. Yet in private, the president and his henchmen are thought to have begun to make plans for an escape. “Putin’s entourage has not ruled out that he will lose the war, be stripped of power, and have to urgently evacuate somewhere,” Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter who is now a political analyst, wrote on Telegram. Citing an unnamed insider, Gallyamov said the Kremlin was considering Argentina or Venezuela as safe havens. Igor Sechin, a senior Putin ally, is thought to be overseeing the project, which is codenamed Noah’s Ark. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/putin-says-russia-may-add-nuclear-first-strike-to-strategy?srnd=davos Vladimir Putin said Russia may consider formally adding the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike to disarm an opponent to its military doctrine, just days after warning that the risk of atomic war is rising. “We’re thinking about this,” the Russian president told reporters after a summit in Kyrgyzstan. “If we are talking about a disarming strike, perhaps we should think about using the approaches of our American partners,” he said, citing what he called US strategies to use high-accuracy missiles for a preventive strike.

I agree with this, still looks fun and impressive for me. I watched some video were it was producing some working code, just from simple words. Now I can really imagine myself beeing able "to code" in the future:). I hope and expect Google is well awere of this and maybe in possesion of something even more exciting.

I finaly managed to sign up and try it a little (now not working again), thanks god it answered that it can not pick shares or offer investment advise:))), and that financial analysis is still to hard for it to do, so sofar I feel safe:))). It explained perfectly for me, why people love cats more than wild boars and who Kaizer Soze is:). Then I asked my wife to test it with some serious mathematical/statistical questions (language of birds for me) and she said its quick answers were really good and would be helpful at her work! So while I find a lot of fun with it, it also seems that it could be realy helpful in some cases.