UK

Value or not, I actually thought it was cool he loaded on shares with central bank's cash in spring 2020, not many did, even BRK did not.

Thanks for your comment!

Luca, what are these numbers?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-mbs-mohammed-bin-salman-public-investment-fund-11672766494?mod=hp_lead_pos11 As the Covid-19 pandemic sent global markets swooning in early 2020, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, sensing opportunity, pressed the country’s sovereign-wealth fund to go on an international stock-buying spree. The board of the Public Investment Fund, or PIF, resisted the move as too risky, but soon found itself overruled by an even higher authority, Prince Mohammed’s father, King Salman, according to an October podcast by the PIF governor, Yasir al-Rumayyan. Without sufficient liquid assets to satisfy the prince’s desire to move quickly, the PIF prevailed on the Saudi central bank to give it tens of billions of dollars, despite concerns from government officials that doing so might undermine the local currency’s peg to the dollar, according to people familiar with the matter. Prince Mohammed, the PIF chairman, personally picked many of the stocks the fund bought, fast-tracking the purchases through an ad hoc committee that bypassed normal decision-making channels, these people said. The $35 billion deployed by the PIF quickly turned into $49 billion when markets rallied, Mr. Rumayyan said on the podcast. But the episode escalated a power struggle over the future of the world’s seventh-largest sovereign-wealth fund, now with $600 billion under management, according to interviews with current and former employees, consultants and other people familiar with the fund. On one side is 37-year-old Prince Mohammed, the fund’s chairman since 2015, who dabbled in stock picking as a youth and has led the PIF into investing in videogame makers, luxury-car manufacturers and an English soccer team. On the other is a growing group of professional financiers who are trying to put guardrails around how the kingdom’s oil wealth is spent. The outcome will help shape the future of Saudi Arabia’s economy. The kingdom, flush with cash from higher oil prices, is aiming to grow the PIF into a $2 trillion behemoth by 2030. Consultants and people who work with the PIF said it is like any company or investment fund around the world that is dominated by a big personality or deal maker, and much of what the prince—or the governor, Mr. Rumayyan—recommends is based on a broader economic rationale. A case in point: Prince Mohammed’s interest in electric vehicles is well-known. In 2018, the PIF began putting money into EV startup Lucid Group Inc., investing $3.8 billion in all. Its 60% stake is now worth roughly $7 billion. Meanwhile, the California-based car maker has broken ground on a factory in the kingdom slated to create jobs for the Saudis, a win for the PIF’s dual strategy of investing for financial return while developing the domestic economy. Other times, the crown prince’s interests have led the PIF into investments like Noon.com, an e-commerce website that planned to take on Amazon.com Inc. In the past two years, Noon suffered losses of $520 million, according to the PIF prospectus. The value of PIF’s current stake or whether it has invested further couldn’t be determined. Noon declined to comment. In 2018, after Prince Mohammed, an avid gamer, tried an augmented-reality product from a buzzy startup called Magic Leap, the PIF invested $400 million. At the time, the investment valued Magic Leap at more than $6 billion. By 2021, when the PIF took a majority stake, the company was struggling financially and the valuation had slipped to $2 billion. The prince’s biggest bet, a $45 billion commitment in 2017 to SoftBank’s Vision Fund, has lagged behind the overall market and hasn’t produced the flurry of foreign investment by technology companies into the kingdom envisioned by the PIF leadership. The PIF invests domestically in dozens of new companies and real-estate developments such as a 75-mile long skyscraper, as well as internationally in private equity and stocks and sports initiatives such as the Newcastle Football Club and LIV Golf. “Our results speak for themselves,” the PIF said. “PIF is helping drive the transformation of the Saudi economy and generating strong financial returns and economic opportunities for the people of Saudi Arabia, our ultimate stakeholders.” Saudi officials said Prince Mohammed listens to his advisers and sometimes argues with them about how best to manage the government’s finances and the PIF’s investments. But he has the final word in both arenas, they said. “He’s very passionate about the economy, and sometimes we spend many hours arguing, including with His Royal Highness,” said Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, a PIF board member who has championed a series of moves to shape how PIF money is spent. In an interview, Mr. Jadaan called the 2020 central-bank transaction an extraordinary one-off episode. In the spring of 2018, Prince Mohammed asked Mr. Rumayyan to buy a stake in Tesla, spending $2 billion on shares available on the public markets, people familiar with the request said. Later that year, Mr. Rumayyan met with Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk for a discussion about further investment, a meeting that became the precursor to a set of tweets Mr. Musk posted saying he was taking the company private and had “funding secured.” The Securities and Exchange Commission later sued Mr. Musk for allegedly fraudulent statements and he settled the case, while denying wrongdoing. The debacle unsettled PIF executives, according to people aware of their thinking. When Tesla’s share price recovered to above the fund’s entry, Mr. Jadaan asked PIF executives to sell the shares, according to people familiar with the directive. Tesla’s shares later rocketed, and the PIF’s stake in the company would now be worth roughly $11 billion if it had simply held on to the original investment.

They just days ago again cracked down on online education and brokerages, providing foreign trading. And is Didi app already available? Would be far better indicator for me, than his greetings...

There is this idea, that AI could disrupt some current content creation, especially on social media or future metaverse: https://stratechery.com/2022/dall-e-the-metaverse-and-zero-marginal-content/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/bodies-pile-up-in-china-as-covid-surge-overwhelms-crematoriums “Bodies are overflowing everywhere,” said the employee, who asked not be named. “You’ll have to wait a month if not.” While funeral homes warn against trusting brokerage services, some middlemen are using creative ways to reach anguished families. On Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, videos featuring colorful visuals and stirring music advertise Mercedes-Benz hearses, elaborate burial clothes and Babaoshan cremation slots. “We couldn’t afford to live under lockdown,” wrote a person on Weibo, sharing a view commonly expressed on the social-media platform over the past few weeks. “And now we can’t afford to die.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-stock-what-to-watch-warren-buffett-51672586769

With enough thrust, pigs, can in fact fly

Actually your advice on bike seat resonates with me quite well:). Especially it is a problem for few weeks after winter break:). In a summer I ride bycycle almost every day. Somtimes I go to a completly unknown places, without plan, as we say "where eye can lead". In winter...well maybe home bike trainer is also much more for machines, but still I like it:)

BRK. Still not overpriced (or even yet below market valuation). Safe, defensive, somewhat resiliet to higher rates etc. I think still way better vs just SNP. FFH. Also higher rate proof, value/short duration, otherwise not much to add. JOE. Not much to add. Actually it is old economy stock, but longer duration rates wise. But i like it already, despite of where rates will be. META, GOOGL, AMZN. META is already value stock:), GOOGL at or even bellow market multiple and AMZN I think at least not overpriced:). As a group of by ~50 per cent, trading at simillar ot cheaper than market valuation, while arguably much better and much faster growing businesses. I think these are also somewhat inflation resilient in terms of their businesses (strong market position, low capex, pricing power), but perhaps would suffer more valuation wise, if rates would be higher, then expected. Maybe TSM could be added to this group. UMG. Maybe not obviously cheap looking ar current multiples, but really wonderfull business, with tech like growth, yet more long term visibility. Maybe, looking similarly, LVHM is also interesting.

I agree with your view, nothing to add.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-01/victory-over-russia-in-ukraine-may-bring-world-war-3-niall-ferguson?srnd=premium

This is not very pleasant video, but here you are, some managment lessons from Donbas:

I do not hedge currencies either. However not hedging plus borrowing in EUR would be much more like making a bet on currencies. Regarding EU I am much more sceptical, total debt maybe still ok, but just look at Italy, and it would be hard to fix its debt like Greece's, because of different size. But most important difference from US I think is potential long term economic growth rate. Just from demographics its 1 or even more per cent defference? And then all inovation, government size, energy independence, now security, millitary and other issues. But yes, I am no way considering USD undervalued after last year or two, and it could move against such strategy painfully at any time. But what odds of EUR gaining against USD in 5 or 10 years?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-30/manufactured-housing-revival-could-help-the-us-build-its-way-out-of-crisis For all its complexities, America’s nationwide housing crisis boils down to a problem of supply and demand: The country needs a lot more homes than it has, yet even ambitious reforms won’t provide developers with enough incentive to bridge the gap. Addressing this dilemma could well be the defining public-policy challenge of the next few decades. The problem is enormous: To close an accumulated shortfall estimated at 3.8 million units, the pace of housing construction would need to be about 50% higher over the next decade.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

Ha, my family had Lada, very similar to one in the photo, I grew up riding this car:)

We had a similar period in my country with temporary money, just after Ruble went toilet paper. The problem with such strategy was nobody would lend you any serious money for a long term in shitty currency in the first place or interest rates would be prohibitively high. There were some who were able to borow from the state owned banks, while making serious money in such way, but those were not market based transactions so to speak:). However, and I am not sure about this in the near or mid term, but I sometimes I wonder if borrowing EUR to fund investments in USD or other currencies would be a good strategy in the long term. EU, because of its debts, demographics etc, not to mention new energy and war issues, seems to be under some serious pressures and structural disadvantage vs rest of the world. I can not imagine very high EUR rates for a long term or relatively vs USD, and region could be forced to revert to zero rates just like JPY in the future, so 1. interest rates on EUR loans probably will stay lower with 2. a possibility for further EUR depreciation. It would be interesting to hear what other think about this, especially those based in EUR? If you invest in US/USD and use some leverage, do you borrow in USD or EUR?

A whopping 1 per cent:). Almost all good for portfolio came from BRK, which was 60+ position at the start of 2022. Almost all bad came from my mistake with China's big tech, which I closed in summer. Continue to hold BRK (still largest position). In 2H bought UMG, GOOGL, META, AMZN and substiantially added to FFH and JOE. Also added some smaller stuff for speculative/basket part of portfolio.

Thanks!

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/12/28/ukraines-women-snipers-take-the-fight-to-putin Unlike men of conscription age, Ukrainian women are not barred from leaving the country. An initiative to extend the draft to women working in critical professions was due to be enacted last October, but it was postponed amid popular outcry. That means, for the time being at least, women who fight choose to do so voluntarily. That hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s armed forces taking on an increasingly female face. Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Anna Malyar, says there are now “at least 30,000” women soldiers serving in the army, or one in five of the official, pre-mobilised number. (The exact numbers in the army now are a closely guarded secret.) Most often, women soldiers fulfil back-line roles as medics, press officers, cooks, secret communications officers, or in the sensitive task of evacuating and treating bodies, dead or alive. But a growing number, at least 5,000, are performing front-line roles. Many dozens are snipers. The women trainees say they have faced resistance at every stage of their journey, usually from men who believed women are fundamentally unsuited to the sniping profession. “We’ve never sought an easy life,” says Phoenix, “but we’ve proven ourselves whenever the question is asked.” She says she is under no illusions about the dangers. Snipers occupy a particular spot in military psychology, and are singled out for demonstrative treatment if they are ever captured. Being female is unlikely to offer an advantage. “If a woman sniper is captured, she will be raped, humiliated, tortured, and then executed,” says Oksana. “A sniper should always be prepared to blow herself up with a grenade.”

AMZN, JOE.