UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-02/short-seller-andrew-left-s-deleted-tweets-reappear-in-fraud-case

No, but you know: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/investors-should-sell-stocks-at-first-rate-cut-amid-growing-hard-landing-risks--bofa-432SI-3551431

+1

The top 3 for me perhaps all would be Buffett related (like Intelligent Investor, Lowenstein's book, Letters' book etc) but I would like to recommend other, maybe less known and non WB/BRK related books: 1. Bull. A History of the Boom by Mahar 2. Keynes and the Market by Walsh 3. The Little Book of Behavioral Investing by Montier. All quite simple and easy to read. Last is the most important:)

This seems promising:). I would vote (or would like to see, because of wishful thinking) for an unwinding, but perhaps both things could happen to a degree, who knows? Market is going up non stop, without any meaningful volatility almost for a two years now. Perhaps it would be normal and even healthy for at least some kind of correction size pullback to occur and return of little more fear to the market. I already see quite a lot of headlines about recession and geopolitics, lets wait for a chorus of usual doomsayers to emerge:)

He is unusually quiet since the last week:) Probably busy by also deleting his tweets:)))

"Maduro, 61, is accused of locking up critics and harassing the opposition in a climate of rising authoritarianism. He is seeking a third six-year term at the helm of the once wealthy petro-state that saw GDP drop 80 percent in a decade, pushing more than seven million of its 30 million citizens to emigrate."

Thanks for your response! Most likely you are right.

When FFH was issuing its shares at a 1.3 BV to make large insurance acquisitions in 2015-2016 I also have a lot of doubts regarding Singleton talk and felt this way (despite of them being right at the end), but after this period and since pandemic, I think they really have showed it is not only a talk for them. And they are only at some 30 B CAP currently, so still lots of other opportunities to alocate capital. I still do not think the acquisition of Sleep Country at less than 1 B USD (or 3-4 per cent of their CAP) is something to worry much about. It migh not be obvious, why they are doing it, but it does not seem obviously bad either, at least for me personally. And even if it turns out a not very good or bad one, to expect every single investment to work for FFH, I think would be a mistake and a bit to demanding:)

True. Very nice CAGR. And it was a double from 2020 pandemic low price of ~170 USD as early as March 2022! You definitely can make a nice return with BRK, especially buying it at a price near BV. The similarly good price and opportunity was in 2012. In both cases WB confirming it with a buybacks (with a start in 2012 and large actual buybacks in 2020-21) was telling. I made BRK a very large position in both cases. My question is what about the next 5 or 10 years from a current valuation though? I have another, somewhat new worry, regarding the next 10 years. So first of all, WB is my personal hero and I consider him Mozart of investing. But does anyone else have at least some worries with a plan he has for a possible management transition in the future? Is it really the best way to do it? I have personal bitter experience of what old age (or related health issues) can do to a person and his decision making capacity, no matter who he was before. Many talk here about how his priority is safety and avoiding volatility or uncertainty for long term shareholders etc. But then why not let Greg to become a CEO and to allow him to run BRK for some time, hopefully still long time!, watching him from a position of chairman (or just of a large shareholder), while you are still sharp and able? Sorry for asking of such a question, maybe I do not understand this completely or worry too much. Like I said, I have enormous respect for WB and BRK, and I am still a shareholder myself.

Thanks. I do not disagree with you at all, especially regarding 2020. In this covid period I was also defensive to early and soon hidding almost completely in BRK myself:)

Yes, the second point is somewhat intriguing. But after watching him/them doing nothing in 2020 (lots of opportunities) or 2022 (big tech opportunities), I do not hold my breath for any big offensive moves anymore. Would be glad to be wrong though. Being continuously defensive and cleaning the house perhaps makes a lot of sense for him now. Not sure if this is the ideal way for preparing for inevitable transition though.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000095017024087477/xslF345X05/ownership.xml So WB is selling BAC, BYD, possibly even more AAPL...I am wondering what does it mean (probably nothing) or what is his alternative (probably cash) for them?

I am currently only at the start of the season 6 of GoT...but already excited about HoD in advance:))

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-07-28/trump-bitcoin-2024-how-nfts-made-him-a-crypto-cheerleader?srnd=homepage-europe

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/23/why-is-xi-jinping-building-secret-commodity-stockpiles https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/07/27/america-recreates-a-warfighting-command-in-japan

Wow! Despite of the fact, that players of such an ilk sometimes could also provide good opportunities, their methods and dealing with them usually makes me feel sick...so f**k them:), as much as possible:)

I am not sure about it, but also do not see it as necessarilly bad. The probability is also very high they did far more homework on it, than most of us:). In any case, isnt it like 3-4 per cent from their CAP?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/ai-fever-cools-sending-nasdaq-100-into-1-trillion-tailspin?srnd=homepage-europe Some more rotation and volatility, finally, maybe something more interesting / at least correction size serious? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-cut-interest-rates-now But sure, market has fallen more than 2 per cent for the first time in almost two years and is already off by like 4 per cent from recent ATH! What a horror:). FED put to the rescue!

Maybe it is not that bad, if you already know this:). And at least size accordingly:) I love this story from Druckenmiller: "I made a lot of mistakes, but I made one real doozy. So, this is kind of a funny story, at least it is 15 years later because the pain has subsided a little. But in 1999 after Yahoo and America Online had already gone up like tenfold, I got the bright idea at Soros to short internet stocks. And I put 200 million in them in about February and by mid-March the 200 million short I had, lost $600 million on, gotten completely beat up and was down like 15 percent on the year. And I was very proud of the fact that I never had a down year, and I thought well, I’m finished. So, the next thing that happens is I can’t remember whether I went to Silicon Valley or I talked to some 22-year-old with Asperger’s. But whoever it was, they convinced me about this new tech boom that was going to take place. So I went and hired a couple of gunslingers because we only knew about IBM and Hewlett-Packard. I needed Veritas and Verisign. I wanted the six. So, we hired this guy and we end up on the year — we had been down 15 and we ended up like 35 percent on the year. And the Nasdaq’s gone up 400 percent. So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there. So like around March I could feel it coming. I just — I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a — don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."

I think this number includes existing debt.

+1

Insurance is also perhaps more resilient / less dependable on the economic cycle? Of course it has its own cycles or different issues, but taking into account the level of expertise BRK posses in the field and their already huge exposure to insurance operationally, it really seems like some kind of telling sign:)

This was the first thought that also came to my mind as a possible explanation. But, one way or another, this only makes sense if this business is reasonably good and durable. Price paid for it suggests that somehow it has to be the case:)?

Thanks dealraker! I understand and admire your approach as well and am thinking about transitioning, partly or fully, to some similar process, especially sometime in the future. Perhaps not selling out of something that I like and it still works well enough, only because of the valuation, could be a good start. I have earned some serious regrets by not doing so in the past, so thanks for sharing you experience and thinking about all this.