UK

Maybe it is not that bad, if you already know this:). And at least size accordingly:) I love this story from Druckenmiller: "I made a lot of mistakes, but I made one real doozy. So, this is kind of a funny story, at least it is 15 years later because the pain has subsided a little. But in 1999 after Yahoo and America Online had already gone up like tenfold, I got the bright idea at Soros to short internet stocks. And I put 200 million in them in about February and by mid-March the 200 million short I had, lost $600 million on, gotten completely beat up and was down like 15 percent on the year. And I was very proud of the fact that I never had a down year, and I thought well, I’m finished. So, the next thing that happens is I can’t remember whether I went to Silicon Valley or I talked to some 22-year-old with Asperger’s. But whoever it was, they convinced me about this new tech boom that was going to take place. So I went and hired a couple of gunslingers because we only knew about IBM and Hewlett-Packard. I needed Veritas and Verisign. I wanted the six. So, we hired this guy and we end up on the year — we had been down 15 and we ended up like 35 percent on the year. And the Nasdaq’s gone up 400 percent. So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there. So like around March I could feel it coming. I just — I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a — don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."

I think this number includes existing debt.

+1

Insurance is also perhaps more resilient / less dependable on the economic cycle? Of course it has its own cycles or different issues, but taking into account the level of expertise BRK posses in the field and their already huge exposure to insurance operationally, it really seems like some kind of telling sign:)

This was the first thought that also came to my mind as a possible explanation. But, one way or another, this only makes sense if this business is reasonably good and durable. Price paid for it suggests that somehow it has to be the case:)?

Thanks dealraker! I understand and admire your approach as well and am thinking about transitioning, partly or fully, to some similar process, especially sometime in the future. Perhaps not selling out of something that I like and it still works well enough, only because of the valuation, could be a good start. I have earned some serious regrets by not doing so in the past, so thanks for sharing you experience and thinking about all this.

I do not think Buffett differs that much in this "right people/partner" approach? Personally I find this very important and after all years and some really unpleasant experience with all these "independant" boards or CEOs with a maximum of 3-5 year time frame, I am really hesitant to put much money into anything without right people / alligned owner etc. This is also probably the main reason of FFH succes and to invest in FFH in the first place, at least for me:). Many other cheaper/better/whatever insurance companies without owner operator I can trust? Thanks but no:)

So this is from SA from a few month ago. It does not cover everything and omits some important positives (e.g. recent total operating results, because of very strong insurance performance, or together with other omissions them not buying long term bonds in ZIRP period etc). And author seems to be expecting some perfection after all:), despite stating the opposite. But I think some of his critique and analysis is quite interesting and not that bad/stupid? For what it is worth: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4693091-berkshire-15-years-of-disappointing-acquisitions Please do not shoot the messenger:). Still own some BRKB, but this year/recently reduced allocation to a "core minimum", mainly because of the valuation, although I admit, that WB's warning on utilities earlier this year also scared me a little. Also I am a bit worried, that the way the possible management transition on the horizon is expected to occur at BRK is the best way to do this or one I would prefer. Personally, from a current valuation, I still expect BRK will provide a reasonable buy and hold return in the next 10 years of 6-8 per cent or even more, but doubt it could be >10 per cent, without some major luck. And probability is also very high they will finally have to deal with a management transition in this period (and this again could be an opportunity). Now, this 6-8-10 is nothing tragic at all and price/valuation could overshoot even more (probably ~1.8 BV would be a level for me to get out completely), but I think now it is already out of the exciting territory, at least for more active approach. I get and respect this "do not sell a single share" approach, but not so sure if this is a reasonable thing to do in BRK case this time, especially if your expectations are higher, than mentioned above. And with recent AAPL (wonderful, but probably to expensive) and BAC (probably expensive enough for average at best and not anti fragile business) sales, it seems even Buffett himself is showing this is the the way to go:)? I would also appreciate if anyone could share their thinking or push back on this and maybe also discuss what are his expectation for the next 10 year BRK returns.

+1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-stock-1-trillion-market-value-f0050c98 "Berkshire stock has been strong this month, gaining about 9% as both value stocks and financials have done well. Berkshire is the largest component of both the Russell 1000 value index and the S&P 500 financial sector." Despite being almost 1T CAP, BRKB is trading like some small cap in the last 5 days:). I like this rotation/unwind from M7/Trump or whatever trade of the last 5 days:)

https://www.ft.com/content/44493fa9-d8f2-4407-94ac-a072c1976ca2 Donald Trump will quickly demand peace talks between Russia and Ukraine if he wins November’s US presidential election and has developed “well-founded plans” for doing so, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has claimed after private discussions with the Republican candidate. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/vance-s-foreign-policy-views-widen-trump-s-break-with-republican-old-guard?srnd=homepage-europe&embedded-checkout=true “Ever since President Kennedy, the United States has been asking for Europe to do more,” UK politician David Lammy said in May, before he became foreign secretary with the Labour Party’s win this month. “My friend, Senator Vance, is right to say we in Europe have a problem that we need to fix with higher defense expenditure.” It’s far too early to know how much Trump would listen to Vance’s counsel if they win in November. But if he does, the US will take an even more skeptical view toward Ukraine than Trump has expressed so far. The Ohio senator says he opposes any further aid to Ukraine and has pushed for peace as soon as possible. “I think it’s ridiculous that we’re focused on this border in Ukraine,” Vance once said on Steve Bannon’s podcast. “I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/trump-s-vp-pick-vance-says-china-is-the-biggest-threat-to-us?embedded-checkout=true

Thanks for all these posts Viking! They contain some real gems:)

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123338-the-sp-500-is-racking-up-record-highs-but-theres-defiant-behavior-beneath-the-moves “Oppositional Defiant Disorder”

So nobody knows and maybe this is wishfull thinking on my part:), but I am not sure if Trump's position on NATO is that bad or stubborn: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-17/trump-security-adviser-urges-cutting-china-ties-resuming-nuclear-weapons-tests?embedded-checkout=true "There are moves O’Brien doesn’t call for, and that may be a pleasant surprise to uneasy allies. There’s no mention of withdrawing from NATO — in fact, he says Trump made the defense alliance stronger by demanding that European governments spend more on defense. O’Brien calls on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to rotate ground and air forces to Poland to boost its capabilities close to Russia’s border “and to make unmistakably clear that the alliance will defend all its territory from foreign aggression.” Would making EU pay more, buy more arms from US, while basically keeping the whole system the same, be so stupid? More speculations on this: https://archive.is/qCA3s

And maybe what is also new and interesting this year, is that they are doing all those buybacks at well above 1 BV. I do not think / remember that was the case any time previously? So perhaps this would also support your idea of quality and points of cheap and fair valuation moving up. Maybe it is 1.2 and 1.6 now vs 1.0 and 1.3 previously in their view and personally I would not disagree:)

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/earnings-season-to-test-investors-faith-in-big-tech-stocks-a16dc89e?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Thanks for sharing your story and portfolio. Incredible! Nothing to add:) I would also appreciate if you could share what are your expectations for a future long term returns of BRK? It is bigger than ever and its valuation also has improved recently. Sometimes I wonder what would be reasonable to expect for it for the next 10 years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-to-leave-bank-after-two-challenging-years The move comes following a disastrous two-year stretch of stock-market calls by Kolanovic. He was steadfastly bullish in much of 2022 as the S&P 500 Index sank 19% and strategists across Wall Street lowered their expectations for equities. Then he turned bearish just as the market bottomed, missing last year’s 24% surge in the S&P 500 as well as the 14% gain in the first half of this year.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hurricane-season-reinsurance-stocks-9b71ac29 From a year ago, but I like this way of thinking:)))

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/06/16/why-house-prices-are-surging-once-again?itm_source=parsely-api Is there any asset class left which yet did not shrugged off higher interest rates:)?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/softbank-s-son-aims-to-create-super-ai-in-new-investment-drive?embedded-checkout=true But after grappling with his failures over the past year, during which his entrepreneurial father passed away, Son said he woke up with an epiphany Friday morning. “I had my answer,” Son told shareholders gathered at an annual meeting. “I made some checks, and I see my path forward.” “This is what I was born to do — to realize ASI,” Son said, without elaborating on what his next plans might be. “Watch me, I will make it happen.” SoftBank is working on a plan to deploy some $100 billion into AI-related chips in a project dubbed Izanagi, Bloomberg reported in February.

This piece is good: https://stratechery.com/2024/ai-integration-and-modularization/

https://pracap.com/the-culling/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-culling I will admit that currently I share some exact thoughts and feelings about the investing and market with him and also have done a lot of culling recently (at the same time nothing new/big or exciting YTD). Still mostly invested (and very likely will stay this way), but moved to the defensive side of my pendulum and would like to clear/reset my mind:)

So after missing NVDA or TSM recently I was curious about and reading a lot of stuff like this: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/06/17/ray-kurzweil-on-how-ai-will-transform-the-physical-world https://www.ft.com/content/03895dc4-a3b7-481e-95cc-336a524f2ac2 But the funniest thing is, that even if I knew that such or similar predictions / fears are true (call me a skeptic, but no idea), I still would not have any firm view how one supposed to benefit from all this or at least not to be killed by this God-like AI, as investor:). Maybe just to be silly and own SNP500, which will include most possible winners and losers, as more extreme scenarious just would not matter anyway:)?