UK

So congratulations for all BRK holders (me too still). I will need to update my Excel on BRK for this milestone, but I think the last time BRK was valued so generously by the market was pre GFC in 2007. I have no idea why this is happening and hope it is something more than just simple momentum, but in my understanding, currently I own BRK fairly valued for the first time:). This is not a tragedy and I would still expect it to return long term 6-8 or even a tad more (with some extra luck) from this valuation level, but I also think at this level it is getting exposed to some 'revert to mean' risk more, especially if it will go up so quickly even further. If it does indeed, a new trick, copied from dealraker, I am trying to learn (not to sell everything only because of valuation) will be tested:)

This is really good idea. Also "Fairfax and Sleep Well" or maybe "Fairfax and (just go to) Sleep" could be nice:) PS. Or better yet: "Fairfax and Relax":)

I do not know much about December (except that it might be chilly in the North?) since I was traveling in March-April myself and it was already like +40 some days:), but this looks like a wondeful plan. I get some nice feelings and excitement by just looking to your map:). I think all of these places you marked are great. I also liked north and Rishikesh (we did some nice rafting in the start of Ganges here), but also maybe less well known places, like Hampi (not marked, but it is not far from Goa of Bengaluru, not crowdy). Also, if by any chance you will visit Kochi in Kerala, I think there is original burial place of Vasco da Gama here (though nothing perhaps special to see, except the fact:)). It was quite a long time ago now, but still nothing beats traveling in India for me:) My dream and number one destination for a serious travel on the list is to travel throughout US similarlly sometime in the future:)

Well, Xi/CCP always talks a lot and seems to prefer 'stability' against some sudden cleaning of the system (crash) or dealing with the problems in some other ways quickly, and they already have a track record of doing this, so this very well might be a right call.

This is not correct, since 2022 was even more bad than a correction, but since 2018 it was more like something happens once in a two years, so 2024 would fit this patern nicely:)

Boy this gives me some PTSD from my early experience of investing in retail...these were also the first -50 to -80 percent lessons, still remember nicely:)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-stock-trillion-buffett-birthday-e8c64986 Happy birthday!:)

I think he communicated this way to soften the possible publicity blow of his selling for Apple and/or maybe also because he was/is not done yet. I have no issue with this, this is one of the most easily explainable reasons, very likely not the most important, but not a lie either:). I also do not think special dividend is unthinkable. Maybe it could happen at the time of transition, if not used somehow by then. Just a speculation:)

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-warns-united-states-risks-world-war-three-2024-08-27/

+1. Just would like to add, that in my thinking it is companies with a very good and long term oriented management (which is very rare by itself) or operated by the shrewd owner/investor/family you can trust (and who then picks the right managment, if they are not running the business themselves, in the first place), which are able to do smart things during the crises and to become even stronger/more valuable. Then you can also leave such investments on autopilot / for long term more easily etc. It is a must have condition for me for most companies for a big investment, as all five I currently own do, but especially for an insurance company, where I definitelly have less ability to check and trust numbers myself. It is almost unthinkable for my to even consider something without the owner or if it is of the second class in this industry. While academia or MW may consider or scream this is a problem and reason not to own or short them:))). This is also how I ended up investing in BRK some ~12 year ago, despite the fact, that I started by doing research of the different insurance company at that time.

I agree with you with a prospective of a business/never sell owner! But I am looking at the situation as an owner of tradable security though and decission not to sell, at least something we could agree to call 'crazy well valued', is also a decission. Something like KO for WB in 2000 or AAPL today? I mean this hit from a too high valuation is a very valid risk by itself, even if the underlying business is perfectly fine, and usually, sooner or later (like bigtech in 2022?) it comes seemingly out of nowhere. I am not sure how to manage these risks (also of selling to early) preciselly and this could be a mistake, but I am sure I would began to lose some of my sleep owning 30+ percent position in FFH, as we know the circumstances today, at >2 BV. Perhaps I would not sleep if it is under 10 percent though. I think the cost base is one of the most dangerous things in such considerations and should be irrelevant in any case, no mater if it is a big winner or loser (except maybe somewhat for a tax purposes), at least I try to hide it from my eyes and thinking as much as possible. I think the real possibility why FFH is still atractive today is that too many market participants have a cost basis or remember to well the price of FFH of some 10 years before 2023. His (I hope) will pass:)

This was meant as a joke, was not it:)? If had one book of many about him to choose, this would be my recommendation: 'The Man Without a Face is the chilling account of how a low- level, small-minded KGB operative ascended to the Russian presidency and, in an astonishingly short time, destroyed years of progress and made his country once more a threat to her own people and to the world.' It was written pre war IIRC.

Still not for a 100 percent, because they do not have some 'must buy' brand names, but I think we currently spend majority of our grocery spending in LIDL from a zero some ~5-8 years ago and I was very sceptical at the begining. They have really good/competitive/disruptive for others business model. We buy lots of these Pretzels to, though I did not realised until now, you should pair them with the weisswurst:). My son will be happy to know...he likes all these different German wursts (currywurst is his favourite) a lot:)

As WMT IIRC:)? https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-price-market-cap-832393c6

Yes, I understand this if you look at it from a fundamental/business prospectives, but as an owner of a liquid security I am not so sure I would be comfortable with a possible ~30 (or more, depending on the valuation) percent hit to a very large position, just because of the risk of reverting valuation. There is a limit somewhere in my mind (or sleep well) for a valuation of any mature business for a very big position (but maybe I would keep something of less than 5-10 percent even at a crazy valuation). Maybe it is >1.5-1.7 BV or even 2 BV for FFH, perhaps something same for BRK, but I think I will know this only if/when we get there, meanwhile I do not see a need to adjust anything meaninfully untill at least 1.5 BV.

+1. And thanks for discussing this. I think big picture/long term we also maybe must take into account, that CAT insurance is only a part of the total insurance economy. I am not sure how much this, lets call climate related potentialy long tail risk, makes of total FFH business though? Also all these loses (I expect) would not be unlimited in any 'asteroid size' case? I expect and trust somewhat, that an insurer, run by a family, whose almost total net worth depends on it, will do a good job of thinking about and managing these risks. Obviously BRK of 2024 seems to be more safe antifragile still, than FFH if 2024, just because of its diversification of the last ~20 years into operating businesess. It would be interesting to estimate in what year BRK was of the same risk as FFH today (somewhere before 2000?). We can always find something, like e.g. supervolcano risk (once in a 50000 years?) or what not (recently watched The Day After Tomorrow with my kid and it provoked some interesting thoughts for me:)) which would probably kill even BRK, or almost every other company, for that mater, so in the end this would not be a financial portfolio level worry anymore...Finally, despite of insiders WB or PW going almost totally fully in, I think it is still a good idea to cap ones investment to a size he can sleep well with. For me it could be as much as 60 percent for BRK (not at the current valuation) and up to 40 percent for FFH. These could change (but more likely to a lower side) in the future. This is also very personal, if ones max position size is 10 percent (which is totally fine and makes sense), then just keep FFH also at this or whatever limit.

Thanks for sharing! I am doing something simillar with this "trading around the core", which sometimes makes total sense for me, since you already know what are you buying/selling very well, only at a lesser degree (perhaps max up to 20 percent of total position) and somewhat more reluctantly, since I am on the hook for a 15 percent tax, for doing this in any case. However, it seems that from the next year (still hard to believe:)) I will be able to use unlimited deferred tax accounts for basically all my investment portfolio, so it will be even less impediment for such trading, meanwhile I was/am moving more and more to a dealraker's style of operating:)

These are really good observations. Thanks!

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-26/war-in-gaza-is-it-time-for-israel-to-break-iran-s-strangling-loop?srnd=homepage-europe

+1

https://www.ft.com/content/c62ca855-c70b-4814-aa47-96d2a0020c16 In Vienna, for example, Sullivan stressed that Washington was not trying to spark a war, according to the second official. “We’re not trying to drag China into a conflict over Taiwan. Nothing could be further from the truth,” adds the second official, who added that Beijing had become “pretty conspiratorial” about US intentions. Underscoring the paranoia, Xi had told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen a few weeks before the summit that the US was trying to goad China into attacking Taiwan. “The kind of basic notion of, ‘You guys are playing with fire on Taiwan’ remains a central feature of their thinking,” the first US official says. https://www.ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a Xi issued the warning in a meeting with von der Leyen in April 2023 that was described to the Financial Times by several people. He said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait. Another person said he had issued similar warnings to his officials. The comments provide a window into Xi’s thinking on Taiwan — the most thorny issue in US-China relations. Some Chinese academics and retired military officers have claimed that Washington is trying to provoke Beijing by providing weapons to Taiwan and pushing other measures to lure China into military confrontation. Speaking at the Asia Society in January, Cui Tiankai, a former Chinese ambassador to Washington, said China would “not fall into the trap somebody may be preparing for us”, in a veiled reference to the US. Xi’s remark to von der Leyen is the first known case of him making the claim to a foreign leader. Xi also said that a conflict with the US would destroy many of China’s achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a “great rejuvenation” by 2049. “If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor counsel from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” said Jude Blanchette, a China expert at CSIS, a think-tank.

Of course I had. I have traveled to Russia and Ukraine since I was like five years old, because I had lived in USSR until I was nine and we literaly could not go elsewhere:). Later I worked for some projects there. I speak Russian, I love their literature, I have lot of former Russians or Belarusians in my circle and I have nothing against most of its people, as against people of Iran, Venezuela and perhaps N. Korea. Their regime is the problem though. It is their and some minority's interests above others. Look at Venezuela or N. Korea, this is a way Russia is going now too and nobody ask the opinion of the average Russian or he is going to a jail for 20 yers for expressing any. I was also much more optimistic about China and CCP once, but I am not sure anymore (at least for now). I like Chinese too:).

I admit Russia has its interests. Even Putin has his, perhaps over other Russians. This reality is a tragedy for some of its neighbours, who also have interests. I am also not even saying they were completelly unprovoked. I do not know how to solve this. But I am 100 percent sure I do not want their way of life to spread behind their borders or any further either:)

Luca, I am 100 percent sure, that most Ukrainians (maybe except for a few in Donbass) genuinelly wanted to move to the west, as they do now, even more, after all they have endured! Also: "Well, of course America’s done bad things, but one needs to look at the whole track record" Sorry, but this post of yours sounds to me like blaming democracy for its minuses (the worst system, except all the other), or Buffett, for not giving up 1 or whatever percent of his net worth, he will leave for his family:) Or can you tell me then, which alternative is better? Would you personally would like to live under Russian/N. Korean/Venezuelan or even Chinese system? Why then people from all over the world flock to the western world in general and US in particullar? Btw, Luca: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2324121/more-germany-in-lithuania-vilnius-drafts-new-strategy-for-relations-with-berlin For the record, I welcome and thankful for this foreign interference of Germany into our affairs no less as from US, the more, the better:)