UK

Also found this one: https://www.marvalcapital.com/interviews or https://vimeo.com/862872315

Btw, it is interesting situation re interest rates and its impact on these magacap companies: https://www.wsj.com/economy/rising-rates-make-big-companies-even-richer-718eafce?mod=hp_lead_pos5 The Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to slow the red-hot economy. At some of the biggest and most secure companies, the moves had the opposite of the intended effect, boosting their profits and spending power. The winners from higher rates were high-quality borrowers, who locked in low interest rates around the pandemic with bonds maturing further in the future than any time this century. Higher rates have little immediate impact on their borrowing costs—only affecting bonds when they are refinanced—while they earn more on their cash piles straight away. ... Of course, nothing is forever. The disparity between the winners and losers from rate increases provides yet another reason why the biggest stocks—the winners—have been by far the best performers this year. But threats to the dynamic loom: Time and the economy. The longer the Fed keeps rates high, the more bonds of even the best-quality issuers will have to be refinanced at a higher cost. And if the economy finally breaks, cyclical companies—those most sensitive to downturns, such as carmakers—faced with sharply lower cashflows will struggle to pay even low interest rates they locked in long ago. Until then, we live in strange times. Rising rates make a big part of the economy feel richer—not poorer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-14/xi-crackdown-on-china-health-care-aims-root-out-corruption-bribes-for-doctors

Because if you are not looking at the very short term or hoping to trade them in one or two years, in a longer term (10 years is good enough), if something unexpectedly bad in a major way happens with purchasing power of the currency (don't you share this worry, if you own Bitcoin?), fixed income instruments will be screwed and equities, like other real and/or productive assets, will more or less compensate for this. In some minor way this is just what happened in the last few years with this transitory thing. Maybe we all have our own biases, but I started investing long time ago in equities not because I was seeking some out sized returns, but from fear and in order to preserve what I could save at the time. After seeing with my own eyes before two currencies turning to toilet paper slowly and then quite suddenly:), I just never understood how earning less than 8-10 (which for me in EUR was the case with government bonds all the time, except once, in more then 20 years) was not picking pennies in front of a steamroller. Call it some kind of PTSD from paper money devaluation, but basically only a real estate and equities were the options for me. This poster sums it up:)

Yes, you are right, I just thought about treasuries, since Luca mentioned them in his original post. And yes, TwoCitiesCapital also refered to better alternatives. Still, maybe because of the wrong biases, I just do not find anything below 8-10 per cent expected returs atractive, especialy if these returns are nominal, as with fixed income. Kinda: https://fortune.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-why-stocks-beat-gold-and-bonds/

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-eliminated-advanced-russian-air-defense-system-in-crimea-a7c97151 Ukrainian forces destroyed one of Russia’s most advanced air-defense systems in Crimea, a Ukrainian security official said, striking a fresh blow to Russia’s military on the occupied peninsula that serves as a critical logistical base for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The strike in the early hours of Thursday morning used drones and Ukrainian-made cruise missiles to target the S-400 missile system near Yevpatoriya in western Crimea, the official said. Videos shared online showed a fireball and a plume of smoke near the city. ... The operation marks the first officially confirmed use of the Ukrainian-produced Neptune missile to attack a target on the ground. Neptune is a ground-launched antiship missile, designed and produced in Ukraine based on a Soviet-era weapon. It shot to prominence in April 2022 when it was used to sink the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The missile, which has a range of about 200 miles, was later adapted to strike ground targets. Ukraine has received cruise missiles from the U.K. and France, but stocks are limited and the U.S. and Germany are still deliberating whether to approve Kyiv’s requests for further long-range weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month said Ukraine was upgrading production facilities and could produce “colossal numbers” of missiles, including Neptunes.

It is funny, because, perhaps not without different biases involved, I actually thought exact opposite after seeing this (btw really nice analysis/tables), meaning who on earth would buy 10 year bonds at 4.3, if even SNP could still deliver 6 per cent (I think it is quite reasonable or even on the optimistic side) over the next 10 years? Maybe if you good at trading them, but for the buy and hold and with much better options than SNP?

I follow this, but more for the interest. However atractive it may sound (and it sounds atractivelly), I would lose my sleep making a big bet on such thing. For big bet I like JOE much better:). Does anyone here think differently? There was also an article about uranium in WSJ yesterday: https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/nukes-are-back-but-uranium-is-in-short-supply-44c4ccbf

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-13/the-world-is-still-better-off-with-us-hegemony The Pax Americana was never perfect, just preferable to no pax at all. Here’s hoping that it stays with us a bit longer. ... Is US power actually waning, or does it just seem that way? Does the US, going into a presidential election next year, even want to remain hegemon? Or are Americans fed up with defending that battered regime so awkwardly named the “rules-based international order”? Not least, should the world root for American decline or continued US preeminence? That last one depends largely on where in the world you happen to find yourself. If you’re in Beijing, US hegemony can’t end fast enough, because you think China should reclaim its rightful place as a sort of Middle Kingdom in world affairs. If you’re in Tallinn, Estonia, you want the US to stay strong and engaged, because you realize that an American presence in Europe is probably the only thing standing between you and renewed subjugation by the Kremlin at some point. .. But ask yourself two questions. The first is whether the world would be better off substituting in a different hegemon. Given the prerequisites in economic, technological, military and nuclear power, that could only be China in the foreseeable future. I doubt many people beyond its borders would choose the Chinese Communist Party as ward of the international system and its rules. The second question is whether the world would really improve if it had no hegemon at all — that’s the alternative implied by the catchphrase of multipolarity. If you accept, as I do, that the international system’s default state is anarchy, the answer is No. And even if you believe in the balance of power as the secret sauce, keep in mind that in that realist tradition war is a feature rather than a bug in the system — it’s what recalibrates the scales every so often.

Thanks! Very interesting! Do I understand correctly, that letters of Marval Capital are available only for its clients?

Even if AAPL was cut in half, it would be only some 10 per cent loss to BRK value, but than you end up with them owning somewhat undervalued position:) Re catastrophes, I expect, that it is more of a opportunity, than a threat for them (and other well run insurers). More risks, more oportunities.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/kyle-bass-says-us-banks-to-lose-250-billion-in-office-holdings#xj4y7vzkg

The book on Jobs is also very good, for me the best, related to Big tech.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-10/war-over-taiwan-would-be-a-financial-disaster-for-us-and-china?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-09/wall-street-fears-a-too-hot-economy-as-recession-bets-plunge?srnd=premium From high-yield credit to equities, the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial assets have fallen to the lowest since April 2022, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. It’s a big reversal from the doom and gloom of the past year, when a recession was effectively seen as a done deal. That means markets are increasingly at the mercy of economic news that signals another bout of rampant inflation, spelling trouble for interest rate-sensitive strategies. For many investors, positive economic data — and its potential to spur more policy tightening — is the headwind they’re fighting. ... “I think markets are going to be skeptical of recessions until they see the whites of its eyes,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities. He now expects a US economic contraction early next year, after being caught out this year. “Too many times this last year or so, people like me have cried wolf on recession forecasts, only to see the world turn out better than feared.”

https://www.theinsurer.com/reinsurancemonth/odysseyres-overy-further-corrections-are-needed-at-1-1/

May I ask if big is like 5 per cent or 10 or 20 per cent big:)?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/pacificorp-loses-bid-to-delay-trial-over-final-payout-for-fires?srnd=all Berkshire Hathaway Energy Co.’s PacifiCorp failed to postpone the final phase of a trial over catastrophic Oregon wildfire damages that will determine how much the utility will have to pay — an amount it had estimated to be as much as $11 billion. A state court judge in Portland ordered the trial over the potential payouts to start Jan. 8. The ruling Friday follows a June verdict when the judge ordered PacifiCorp to pay 17 owners of properties destroyed by a series of 2020 fires an average of $5 million each. Those 17 plaintiffs were awarded about $90 million, but Judge Steffan Alexander’s ruling means that calculating damages for as many as 5,000 other residents and business owners will move forward — setting up total potential liability in the billions of dollars. PacifiCorp wanted the proceeding delayed while it appeals the original verdict, and has said it’s confident it will prevail on appeal. ... At trial, Portland-based PacifiCorp estimated its potential liability at $11 billion. In a more recent regulatory filing, the company reported in August that it faces damages claims of more than $7 billion from all lawsuits over the 2020 Oregon fires and estimated its pre-tax losses through June of this year at $608 million after accounting for probable insurance recoveries.

https://www.bloomberg.com/en/news/thp/2023-09-08/hayao-miyazaki-invites-moviegoers-to-dream-with-him-one-last-time?srnd=premium-europe “We are privileged enough to be living in a time where Mozart is composing symphonies,” the filmmaker Guillermo del Toro said Thursday, introducing the film's first screening outside Japan. “Miyazaki san is a master of that stature.” Miyazaki, who didn't travel to Toronto, has himself lampooned his inability to fully step away. In journal excerpts shared in the film's press notes, Miyazaki writes: “There’s nothing more pathetic than telling the world you’ll retire because of your age, then making another comeback.” “Doesn’t an elderly person deluding themself that they’re still capable, despite their geriatric forgetfulness, prove that they’re past their best?" he adds. "You bet it does.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/rahm-emanuel-s-musing-about-china-leaders-stirs-new-controversy?srnd=premium-europe “President Xi’s cabinet lineup is now resembling Agatha Christie’s novel And Then There Were None,” Emanuel wrote. “First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defense Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks. Who’s going to win this unemployment race? China’s youth or Xi’s". The comments conflict with the commonly observed practice of US diplomats staying away from speculation on other countries’ domestic politics. China’s ruling Communist Party also typically issues sharp rebukes of any foreign official’s discussion about the government’s inner workings. ... In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last week, he said the Communist Party used “lying and cheating as a modus operandi of the state.” He also said the US shouldn’t stand in the way of China’s growing economic peril. “My view is keep doing what you’re doing,” he said. “You’re the one with 30% unemployment among youth, not us. You got 10 years of housing with nobody in it. You got people that are getting fleeced by the big developers and the banks. You got municipalities in China that makes Chicago look like a AAA-rated bond. Keep at it.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-fall-in-home-prices-may-already-be-over-3496d6bb?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Swonk is one of those who didn’t see this coming. In late 2022, she called for home prices to fall 20% nationally this year. Now, she says, prices are likely to end the year up slightly from last year.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/tiny-bank-called-republic-first-faces-test-of-depositors-faith-df0f1225?mod=hp_lead_pos5 So far Republic First has managed to live on, and its depositors largely have remained loyal. Deposits as of June 30 were down just 10% from a year earlier. ... In May, Republic First Bancorp, the bank’s holding company, said it would stop making interest payments on its debt. Earlier this year, it tried and failed to raise $125 million to shore up its finances. Its stock now trades for 30 cents a share on the over-the-counter marketplace, and its stock-market value is $21 million. Republic First’s total equity, or assets minus liabilities, was $183 million as of June 30, according to its quarterly report with banking regulators. However, that excluded $304 million of unrealized losses on bonds that it labeled “held to maturity,” which means the losses don’t count on its balance sheet. The losses are the result of lower bond values, which declined when interest rates rose and could rebound if rates fell. Republic First still hasn’t filed audited financial statements for 2022, which it blamed in part on its “former executive team’s failure to maintain adequate internal controls.” For regulatory purposes, the bank said it was well capitalized as of June 30. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank all were deemed well capitalized shortly before they failed, based on their reported regulatory capital.

https://www.ft.com/content/5308cd9f-037e-4524-a6d8-7388b3514199 No other investor has a life story quite as unbelievable as Li Lu/How a radical who fled Tiananmen made billions betting on China.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos9 Punishments for showing these feelings are often severe, with prison terms and forced confessions that are broadcast on a Telegram channel called the Crimean Smersh—a reference to the Stalin-era abbreviation for counterintelligence death squads. August’s catches included a man apologizing for posting “Glory to Ukraine” on social media, another for blasting a Ukrainian song about burning a Russian tank, and three young hostesses at the Alushta aquapark who had danced to another Ukrainian pop tune. The three women were made to sing on camera about the greatness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s FSB intelligence service, meanwhile, paraded a man who had allegedly blown up a gas pipeline in Crimea, one of several such recent detentions on sabotage charges. Most of those detained for such acts of resistance aren’t members of the traditionally pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatar community, an estimated 12% of the peninsula’s population. Many are ethnic Russians who are repulsed by Russia’s militaristic autocracy and prefer a return to democracy under Ukrainian rule. ... As a result, many Crimeans who originally backed annexation by Russia are now changing their mind, said Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin who has left Russia and opposes the government. “There used to be that sentiment in Crimea of return to a home harbor, but you have to understand that this return was so popular because the Ukrainian authority seemed weak and the Russian authority seemed strong,” Gallyamov said. “But now that Russia is losing, and doesn’t show any strength, the legitimacy of the Putin regime has been eroded. And when Ukraine is strong, many Crimeans are thinking ‘Maybe we have made a mistake?’ ”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-06/china-mulls-law-banning-clothes-that-hurt-feelings-of-others?srnd=premium-europe “Shouldn’t the spirit of Chinese nation be strong and resilient?” the person asked. “Why can it be easily damaged by a costume?”