UK

I think there is no one answer for everybody, you have to find what suits you. It could not even be always the same and change with age or other circumstances. Dealraker's aproach is a great one, I am thinking a lot about it and will copy it partialy or fully one day. Already started a bit:). Sometimes I think that just managing/owning concentrated portfolio, always fully invested, also would be fine. But if you have time and too much energy, you also can do several things at once. I recently bought a first new larger investment in almost 2 years, while market was at an ATH and I was not thinking about the market much. But at the same time I still alow myself to move from being 70-80 to 120-130 invested (while most of the time being closer to 100), according to market sentiment, valuations, number of opportunities etc and somehow it seems this aproach also works for me or at least provides for a better sleep sometimes:). Being some 80 percent invested, when market is frothy, will not harm me that much, even if it continues that way for a while, especially since I own only 4-5 positions, but it will alow me to add a really good 1 or 2 opportunities if and when they come:)

I have no idea really, but are you suggesting this is something like a market panic of 87 or 98?

Nothing much in terms of valuations, I agree, but volatility seems just too high.

This is above my paygrade, but I do not think deficits preclude this.

I think at this pace they soon will have to try to fix, if not economy, than at least something more market related. Wix just hit 65, all this seems turning into almost covid level panic:)

I see lot of noise and crazy movements even where market is open, BRK was -10 in Germany, perhaps algorithms are trading a lot:)

Maybe they can, but then maybe also all this could develop into a big currency problem. Maybe a time has come for a test of this "Japan fiscal and monetary experimet"?

Not sure if this rule (whatever it means, I still do not know:)) has much to do with this. After constantly going up with a very low volatility for almost a 2 years, recent M7/AI FOMO and very bullish sentiment / little fear left, market was just ripe for a something like this this. Perfect setup as they say:). Even anecdotal evidences / contra indicators were all flashing red in a last few month: it seems everyone wanted to invest again, particularly into this "chip company with a market share of 80 percent":). Valuation wise, SnP is still at only some 20x forward earnings, not very scary in isolation, but perhaps also it could easily go until at least an average of a last 20 years of 16x, but 16-18x still would be just normal or nothing special. But with an Autumn and US election coming maybe all this has a decent chance to even become of a something more special. I have no idea, but my gut felling is it is to early for a usual dip buying. It might be even not to late to sell something. As always, I will not be playing these games of a musical chairs with a bulk of my portfolio, but would love to move to the offensive side of the positioning again:). We will see.

“Japanese stocks are being taken to the woodshed, absolute chaos there this morning and it’s setting off a renewed bid for global fixed income,” Chaos is a ladder:)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/04/business/bill-gates-warren-buffett-friendship.html

Great, except for a fact, that instead of just going long these names, he now has a chance going to a jail...:)

Yes, I agree, more likely than not, quite soon this extra will be either spend somehow (elephant?) or somehow (special dividend, but hopefully something else/creative?) returned to shareholders. What I doubt, it is some kind of market timing, as some headlines a starting to suggest, but what do I know...

https://fortune.com/2024/08/03/stock-market-crash-bill-gross-dont-buy-the-dip-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-sell-signal/ In a post on X early Friday, Gross said there are very few “bull stocks” and pointed to pipeline master limited partnerships, banks, and financials in general. “Investors should stop talking about buying the dip and start asking about selling recoveries,” the cofounder of PIMCO added. ... On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway’s second-quarter earnings report revealed that Buffett’s conglomerate sold a net $75.5 billion worth of stock and nearly halved its stake in Apple. The transactions took place before the recent stock selloff, when the S&P 500 was regularly setting fresh record highs. “You could conclude this is another sell signal,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones, told Bloomberg. “This was a far higher level of selling activity than we were expecting.” Anybody expects at least of a short interview by WB next week:)?

Personally I like WB selling that much of Apple. Even after this sale it would still be ~30 percent of total marketable securities? Probably should even sell some more:). It makes a lot of sense because of the huge position size, valuation, maybe even too much of China dependance etc. But, despite of him also selling some BAC and other investments, I do not think this tells anything much about the market, as some in the media are trying to suggest. Anything, perhaps even including very big acquisition, is possible, but my guess all this is more likely related to a preparation for a future managment transition. I am not sure what to think of about 1/3 of BRK market CAP being in cash now. I still would not like to see a special (or any:)) dividend, but am afraid this is also quite possible. On the flip side, if it stays this way, one will be able to say BRK is his cash substitute even more assuredly:)

I think it belongs here, perhaps together with M7/AI unwind and sudden fear of hardlanding, as the main drivers. I see VIX was already almost 30 on Friday...quite a day:)

Thanks!

So I bought ERF in the last month, which makes it a new fifth position in my well diversified portfolio:). I am not sure how I feel about this, but, together with FFH, this makes it is a second company I own now, which is under attack from MW. So far so good (bought it at ~46+ EUR price), but still watch it carefully every day. But despite of this, YTD I was a net seller, and currently am ~80+ invested (from ~110+ at the end of the last year) mainly by further reducing BRKB and META, trimming other big positions somewhat and completely selling other / smaller / more speculative things, which together accounted for a substantial amount of total sales.

Good point/agree re open market, probably will have to find some other way. It seems nothing was told re minorities. Also it seems the call again ended because of no more questions. Being on COBF one could almost forget this reality of still unusually low interest from a market for a 25 B company:)

Found nothing to dislike in the conference call:) Just to highlight again: "And -- but what I've noticed here is the uptick in your share buybacks over 613,000 shares in the quarter. That's nearly triple what you purchased in the "rst quarter and then almost 6x, which you purchased on a quarter -- on the fourth quarter of last year. " So share repurchasing pace seems accelerating and running at a ~10 percent annualised rate in the Q2.

Thanks for posting!

Thanks. OK then. Still was perplexed by this a little, even went to check if maybe there is something new from MW:)

+1

Strange price action for FFH today. Rate expectations (would be my guess) or not, this should also influence all insurers/reinsurers, but I do not see many (or at all) other insurance stocks down more then 5 percent? Was something bad said in the call?

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hedge-fund-elliott-says-ai-is-overhyped-nvidia-stock-a-bubble-3552377