brobro777

Boy it sure feels like OTM put options on indexes could pay off well

I remember the surprise interest rate cut from Greenspan in Jan 2001!

That's pretty good thanks man

Oh yea I wouldn't be surprised if these big cap tech companies continue to grind higher. Why not 40X? But over the long term like a decade.... One guy I've been reading for years has an interesting thought experiment - will AAPL bonds maturing in 2033 with yield of 4.35% produce higher returns than the AAPL stock in the coming decade? https://divestor.com/?p=11763. Maybe!

Oh yea but this time around it's the sheer size of these companies that makes me scared. I own everything Apple and love their products and order from Amazon constantly but you need a lot of money to push multiple Tril companies up and where is that money going to come from when you can get 5% risk free? It doesn't take much to pop 20% a $2.8Bil company like JOE but multiple Trillions? Hoo boy I don't know...

$3Tril AAPL here, $2.5Tril MSFT there, all at 30X plus and NVDA at $1Tril... Boy that's rich baby, really rich, when it's not 2016 with 0% rates!

Yea there is something about NYC that always felt special. I moved from NYC to Los Angeles in 2013 and I miss things like the cheap Chinese place I used to go to on 116th St. And crime has gotten worse than the Bloomberg years but things are nowhere as bad as they were in the 1980s. I don't miss NYC Income tax though haha

I remember how terrible NYC was in the late 1980s. It was amazing to see the City improve so much during the 1990s and into the Bloomberg years (know people who made life changing money by investing in Manhattan real estate in the 1990s). It's crazy how they're giving so much of it back, just nuts

Whew thank goodness I didn't short MSFT

Boy I'm really tempted to short MSFT at $334. $2.5Tril at 36X, that's rich baby way too rich

I get that these big cap tech companies are wonderful and I've used iphone/Mac for years but Apple at $3Trillion at 31X scares me I would understand more if interest rates were 0% and 10 year was below 2% like in 2016 but now... oof I don't know But then again I own tobacco stocks so what do I know hahaha

I'm skeptical but maybe it'll just continue to grind higher for the rest of the year to SPX 5000. Why not? 5000 sounds nice enough

I remember getting bearish in 2006 and putting on short positions only to get kicked in the face again and again as the markets kept grinding higher into 2007 I kept shorting for some insane reason and by 2009 I came out okay because I got stupidly lucky (it really is better to be lucky than good) but realized there had to be less painful ways to make money I still dream of shorting VA Linux at the open on IPO though. I dream...

Despite recent action I still think the decades long run in big cap tech is over - but I wouldn't short because I could turn out to be totally wrong, I'm too much of a coward and I don't think I could get the timing right All of those alt coin cryptos are weak and will probably continue to grind down but those could get squeezed hard so it's probably better to stay away altogether

What helped me personally to find these different ideas that work out is by focusing on cash. Years ago I bought a condo in Los Angeles because the monthly rent I was paying was similar to the monthly cost of owning the condo (mortgage at 30 year fixed+HOA+Property tax). Yes I had to lock up capital in the property for down payment but I would get tax deduction for mortgage interest, I would be repaying the mortgage principal, and I wouldn't have to worry about rent increases. Any property appreciation would be bonus. Just on cash basis it made sense. But this was during years when the housing bust fresh on people's minds so not many were keen to buy. I kind of lowballed the seller and he came back with such a weak counter that I accepted right away. So I think counting the cash works. These opportunities don't come often so it requires patience but they say it's not supposed to be easy...

I think tech companies in 1999/2000 hit the top due to valuations (Cisco at 150PE I think). This time around I think the top will be in due to sheer size - $2.8Trillion for Apple, $2.4Tril for MSFT seems just too big. Maybe these big techs will just go sideways for 10 plus years - while I collect fat tobacco stock dividends!

I tend to agree. I get that these tech companies are great and like everyone I've made good returns on them over the years (Apple, Google, etc) but $trillion+ market cap at 30X earnings? And despite the recent layoffs, it seems like these companies are still giving away stock based comp like candy I'm too much of a wuss to short (see NVDA recently) so I did the next best thing I could think of and bought tobacco stocks. Hopefully things will turn out like 1999/2000!

Sometimes the stock gets pumped so hard, trading gets halted (https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/abatix-halted-nasdaq-asks-for-additional-information) When the trading resumes (https://ir.nasdaq.com/static-files/ca0dace5-e2f8-4acf-a92e-422920b547e2), guess where the stock opens? Hahah

It wasn't even 2 weeks! It was like 2 days! Shows how much I know! Haha

Haha I thought it would take 2 months for NVDA $1Tril, it'll take 2 days! haha

I think JPM makes a good point regarding increased foreign activism in Japan. Unlike the past, it seems like foreign activists are having more success (https://www.ft.com/content/fc3064ce-a1d3-4f92-91af-ca288f6a4401). The valuation and good businesses were always there in Japan and if that can be unlocked... Buffett bought companies like Mitsubishi and Sumitomo, which are companies with diversified lines of businesses (as well as investments in other Japanese companies), almost as if he's betting more on Japan as a whole. So I was figuring maybe I should keep it simple and increase exposure to the Nikkei

Yea you could be right. And not just valuation, some of Japanese companies have pretty good businesses. I remember Olympus in 2011 when they reported the Zaitech losses and people puked out their shares down to Yen100. At the time some were saying that it was cheap (http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2011/11/monkey-on-your-back.html) because despite these losses Olympus has great endoscope business (https://www.lifesciencemarketresearch.com/market-reports/global-gi-endoscopy-devices-market). Olympus is Yen2200 now and of course I didn't buy it in 2011. I was figuring if these guys can just become more shareholder friendly...

I'm no good at picking stocks so I stick to the index and SPX has been good for years but I'm wondering if it will continue to be so good going forward You're right, good stock pickers will do fine regardless of what the indexes do

After decades of pessimism and issues like and Zaitech losses (e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/business/global/corporate-japan-rocked-by-scandal-at-olympus.html), Japanese corporations appear to be becoming more shareholder friendly (e.g. recently at NTDOY) and Buffett bought more (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japanese-stocks-hit-a-33-year-high-thanks-in-part-to-warren-buffett-7327a1ed). Is it possible that Nikkei will outperform SPX for the next 5, 10 years? What do you guys think?

I've read this forum for a while and got good ideas (St. Joe thread) so I figure I would contribute I do not think this AI thing will not go much further from here. In fact I think the upward run in tech in general that began in 2003 was finished as of last year and this AI thing will not lead to the tech sector making new highs I will probably turn out to be completely wrong and NVDA will hit $1 Tril in market cap in 2 months