brobro777

Come on guys, all I wanna do is short 50 NQ Futures and make 2000 points each contract so I can get back at those bastards at Reddit who made 20X off Carvana calls! Stop ruining my dreams!

Maybe markets will keep running to SPX 5000 to end of year. Huge $3Tril companies at 30X with risk free rates at 5% probably means mediocre returns over the next 10 years but it can just keep going for now and hey, maybe the stranglehold AAPL has the younger people means 30X is justified Perhaps it's not late to make a shotgun bet on a basket of beaten down garbage - Carvana makes me mad jelly

I think you're probably right about those options and plays like that could pay off but things now feel like 2006 when I kept shorting just to get my ass kicked over and over And the nagging question remains - Damnit why didn't I just 10X my money in 6 months with Carvana this year...

Oh man I want to short the market so bad I guess I have no choice but to add to my position in Philip Morris

I understand you guys love to do touchdown celebrations everyday about how much Altria sucks but think about how good the underlying business must be to survive management that terrible and incompetent!

Good point, some judge could deny 3M's motion to dismiss and the stock drops 10% and then the stock recovers on a favorable ruling, up and down, up and down...

Going off today Good call, thanks for the idea

Holy moly that looks like a lot of complicated, annoying reading I'll just stick to the few things I know, like BTI cigarettes!

That seems to be a whole lot of things to know now, on top of all the things to know in the future as the variables constantly change. I'd understand making a bet if interest rates were 0% or these techs were trading at 10PE like MSFT in 2011, but now with risk free rate at 5%? Hoo boy... The fact that people are rushing headfirst into these things with a huge list of uncertainty to pop NVDA $200Bil in one day makes me think we're at year 2000! I wouldn't be surprised if I turn out to be completely wrong though, haha

Boy look at all them Trillions. What they think, trillions grow on trees?

Absolutely, you don't want to be like that Hussman dude who's been "defensive" for over a decade after 2008. I think the average annual return for 10 years in one of his funds is like -3% or something, oof

Boy this calling the top business is tough. Thank goodness I've taken enough ass kickings over the years to stay away from shorting!

I think you're right. The zaitech losses from the bubble days are probably all cleared and gone and after years of dominance of software (led by the Americans), manufacturing (especially the high value kind that Japan and Europe tend to dominate) could become more important. Plus, Japanese companies appear to be becoming more shareholder friendly (e.g. Nintendo seems to be doing this). I'm too dumb and lazy to find individual winners so I'd probably buy a Nikkei 225 ETF or something With all the current rage about AI and software, it would be pretty funny if manufacturing, Japan, and stuff like tobacco outperform during the next 10 years, haha

Boy it sure feels like OTM put options on indexes could pay off well

I remember the surprise interest rate cut from Greenspan in Jan 2001!

That's pretty good thanks man

Oh yea I wouldn't be surprised if these big cap tech companies continue to grind higher. Why not 40X? But over the long term like a decade.... One guy I've been reading for years has an interesting thought experiment - will AAPL bonds maturing in 2033 with yield of 4.35% produce higher returns than the AAPL stock in the coming decade? https://divestor.com/?p=11763. Maybe!

Oh yea but this time around it's the sheer size of these companies that makes me scared. I own everything Apple and love their products and order from Amazon constantly but you need a lot of money to push multiple Tril companies up and where is that money going to come from when you can get 5% risk free? It doesn't take much to pop 20% a $2.8Bil company like JOE but multiple Trillions? Hoo boy I don't know...

$3Tril AAPL here, $2.5Tril MSFT there, all at 30X plus and NVDA at $1Tril... Boy that's rich baby, really rich, when it's not 2016 with 0% rates!

Yea there is something about NYC that always felt special. I moved from NYC to Los Angeles in 2013 and I miss things like the cheap Chinese place I used to go to on 116th St. And crime has gotten worse than the Bloomberg years but things are nowhere as bad as they were in the 1980s. I don't miss NYC Income tax though haha

I remember how terrible NYC was in the late 1980s. It was amazing to see the City improve so much during the 1990s and into the Bloomberg years (know people who made life changing money by investing in Manhattan real estate in the 1990s). It's crazy how they're giving so much of it back, just nuts

Whew thank goodness I didn't short MSFT

Boy I'm really tempted to short MSFT at $334. $2.5Tril at 36X, that's rich baby way too rich

I get that these big cap tech companies are wonderful and I've used iphone/Mac for years but Apple at $3Trillion at 31X scares me I would understand more if interest rates were 0% and 10 year was below 2% like in 2016 but now... oof I don't know But then again I own tobacco stocks so what do I know hahaha

I'm skeptical but maybe it'll just continue to grind higher for the rest of the year to SPX 5000. Why not? 5000 sounds nice enough