brobro777

Oh yea underinvestment in capacity is a good point. And then there is stuff like the years of delay in building a Target that I used to drive by for years - https://la.curbed.com/2018/12/20/18150750/hollywood-target-husk-construction-starting-decision Government regulations, Fed keeping the cost of capital high, and factors like the Target litigation above can keep things expensive and result in boom/busts in inflation that TwoCities noted. And hey, maybe this up and down volatility can last 10 years, why not?

I always figured that inflation would be comparatively low over time due to technological advances making everything constantly more efficient and declining birth rates everywhere and I still believe that but maybe this disruptive adjustment period will go on far longer than people expect. In addition, like Greg said, governments can do a lot of dumb things that makes everything worse...

Well one data point I can provide from Los Angeles is that egg prices have come down to $4.99 a dozen from $6.99, but $4.99 is still higher than $2.99 pre-COVID prices. Hopefully that means good things for my QQQ puts!!!!

Oh man it would be so cool if NQ drops 2000 points in month or something

Yea yea, just keep posting so I can continue to make money off your ideas Just keep going bro

Haha the Roadrunner cartoons were great I'll probably lose money on my QQQ put options but maybe I'll get lucky and big cap tech will crack

Sold some put options in Citigroup

Even more Nintendo All that time I spent playing Contra and Blades of Steel on my NES have to mean something

Bought more Nintendo

Bought some QQQ put options Like moth to a flame, I couldn't stay away

Bought some PTON

Hey that could work. I was thinking I might take a shot in Peloton, which I always thought had brand value. More importantly though, I have a friend who lost money in this during the big decline from 2021-2022 and it would be awesome to make money in PTON and rub it in his face, haha

Come on guys, all I wanna do is short 50 NQ Futures and make 2000 points each contract so I can get back at those bastards at Reddit who made 20X off Carvana calls! Stop ruining my dreams!

Maybe markets will keep running to SPX 5000 to end of year. Huge $3Tril companies at 30X with risk free rates at 5% probably means mediocre returns over the next 10 years but it can just keep going for now and hey, maybe the stranglehold AAPL has the younger people means 30X is justified Perhaps it's not late to make a shotgun bet on a basket of beaten down garbage - Carvana makes me mad jelly

I think you're probably right about those options and plays like that could pay off but things now feel like 2006 when I kept shorting just to get my ass kicked over and over And the nagging question remains - Damnit why didn't I just 10X my money in 6 months with Carvana this year...

Oh man I want to short the market so bad I guess I have no choice but to add to my position in Philip Morris

I understand you guys love to do touchdown celebrations everyday about how much Altria sucks but think about how good the underlying business must be to survive management that terrible and incompetent!

Good point, some judge could deny 3M's motion to dismiss and the stock drops 10% and then the stock recovers on a favorable ruling, up and down, up and down...

Going off today Good call, thanks for the idea

Holy moly that looks like a lot of complicated, annoying reading I'll just stick to the few things I know, like BTI cigarettes!

That seems to be a whole lot of things to know now, on top of all the things to know in the future as the variables constantly change. I'd understand making a bet if interest rates were 0% or these techs were trading at 10PE like MSFT in 2011, but now with risk free rate at 5%? Hoo boy... The fact that people are rushing headfirst into these things with a huge list of uncertainty to pop NVDA $200Bil in one day makes me think we're at year 2000! I wouldn't be surprised if I turn out to be completely wrong though, haha

Boy look at all them Trillions. What they think, trillions grow on trees?

Absolutely, you don't want to be like that Hussman dude who's been "defensive" for over a decade after 2008. I think the average annual return for 10 years in one of his funds is like -3% or something, oof

Boy this calling the top business is tough. Thank goodness I've taken enough ass kickings over the years to stay away from shorting!

I think you're right. The zaitech losses from the bubble days are probably all cleared and gone and after years of dominance of software (led by the Americans), manufacturing (especially the high value kind that Japan and Europe tend to dominate) could become more important. Plus, Japanese companies appear to be becoming more shareholder friendly (e.g. Nintendo seems to be doing this). I'm too dumb and lazy to find individual winners so I'd probably buy a Nikkei 225 ETF or something With all the current rage about AI and software, it would be pretty funny if manufacturing, Japan, and stuff like tobacco outperform during the next 10 years, haha