brobro777

Dude there is probably bigger risk in straying away from what brought you success and doing stuff you didn't do before I mean if what you did in the past that was successful isn't working no more then yea you should change but if it's not broke then you should stick with it As for concentration, there's been plenty of rich guys who lived their entire lives disgustingly rich concentrated on one thing, no?

I was thinking a bucket of fried chicken but a ham sandwich is just as good! You right about PM man, it's better and it'll probably hit $200 this year haha yes

Yea and yet they raised dividends more than 50 plus years in a row and the stock is at $60 now, probably on its way to break all time highs within the next 5 years Think about what a strong business MO has when it can withstand endless lawsuits, endless government regulations, endless dumbass management decisions, and endless marketing campaigns against tobacco, decade after decade You gotta try to understand the mentality of guys who go to gas stations at 2AM to buy a pack of Marlboro Reds - I recommend smoking 2 packs a day for a while haha

Come on guys if you like dividends, you gotta love Marlboros

Damn man I knew I sold my nasdaq futures too soon - here comes 22k Well at least I kept my ES contracts, otherwise I'd be really pissed

Yea Fidelity HSA is good, I rolled over my HSA Bank/TD Ameritrade and they moved all the info over like my cost basis in VOO over the years Damn California Franchise board taxes gains in my HSA tho, that sux ass

What you guys talking about, value investing is all about trading stock index futures when VIX hits 60 haha

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/jpmorgan-drops-us-recession-call-after-us-china-trade-truce?srnd=homepage-americas so more fomo guys pile in to push SPX higher but maybe around 6300 it'll be good to sell and a decent opportunity to buy back at lower prices in the fall that's hilarious and fun haha

Yea I was thinking that we'd get a steady grind higher throughout the year but maybe the machines and the guys who panicked and sold off NQ to 16451 last month are now spiking things up hard, really fast, like way too much If that's the case then maybe it would be better to sell remaining positions into this rally, maybe high at SPX 6200, and let some upcoming bad news work their magic - ports, geopolitical, could be anything - for a decent sized sell off to go long again at better levels I sold my nasdaq today but still got S&P futures...

Thanks man I had added along the way at 18645.25 and 18410.25 - watch, this is gonna probably go higher to 22k, it feels like there are lots of guys totally scared of missing out anyway better to be lucky than good baby, better to be lucky than good

Sold all my nasdaq futures

I think it's programs and machines that are buying and selling now (and not just stocks but futures and options) much more than in the past, that is creating these relentless one way moves; and in the process, pushing volatility to the max in very short time periods (60 VIX). I thought I saw glimpses of it in the past but I really feel that I saw it happen during COVID. If humans were making decisions, there would be counters and bounces on the way down, even during something like COVID. But in spring 2020 I would watch the futures and it would just sell, hit another level, puke out more in size, no bounce, sell, no pause, another big size, and it kept going. Even during the dark days of autumn 2008 it didn't relentlessly sell off like that. And once the programs switched, there was no pause going the other way - just relentless buy, no pause, buy, no counters, buy. Hence the result of fast crash and fast recovery - https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/210394/covid-crash-the-shortest-in-history.aspx Now is that same kind of thing happening during the sell off last month and now? Well this is all just an observation from some piker posting on an internet forum, backed by no data but just feelings, so who knows haha

I remember in 2003 NQ traded around 1200 while ES was around 1000 Now nasdaq futures are at 20000 while S&P is at 5700 Nasdaq outperformed SPX for a long, long time but maybe things will be different going forward

Of course bro betting against these kinda guys say have been pretty profitable over the years. Some are just layup locks, it's incredible I mean you still have to respect risk and position size your bets because they could turn out to be right (usually because of reasons other than they argued) but it's like thanks a lot man haha

Peter Schiff is calling it a bear market rally: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/schiff-bounce-just-bear-market-rally This probably means SPX makes all time highs by the end of the year haha

20k Nasdaq futures took forever but maybe the Johnny come latelys can push it to 21k this month haha

Well I am disappointed Nasdaq futures didn't hit 20k this month. 19791? come on!

Bought some Dec 2025 ES futures

Da low is in, indexes grind higher (with sometimes decently big ups and downs) rest of the year SPX strongest, Russell weakest

all this discussion about policy and issues is nice and all but when is nasdaq futures hitting 20k? I'm still holding my position like, it's taking forever to get to 20k bro, come on

In the past when I didn't really want something because I really liked something else I sabotaged myself during interviews subconsciously Ahhh, financial regulatory compliance. Who wouldn't want to do THAT? You seem like a good guy, good luck bro

Dude you quit your job? Damn Good luck as a full time value investor! haha

no bro I mean in general. I remember shorting the market starting in 2006 because I thought all that subprime shit was way too much and I got my face kicked in over and over again shorting. Some of my shorts finally, finally started working around when Sam Zell sold his office properties to Blackrock, I think around March 2007 (leap wireless was one that cracked okay I remember) and I kept shorting throughout 2007 and 2008 and into 2009 and I felt like the shit, like king of the world. Because of volatility and price declines, my put options reached max value in Nov 2008 and around this time I remember reading old man Buffett's NY times op ed, buy American I am. What did I think? I thought he should stick to old timers day at yankee stadium because he don't got it no more, he doesn't know what he's talking about, he's past his prime I started to get bad feelings around spring 2009 SPX 666 because it was so palpable how demoralized everyone was but I fucking knew better and held my shorts. Well green shoots Bernanke showed me I was wrong and luckily I cashed out okay in June 2009 I finally turned bullish after Christmas 2009, cautiously and then subsequently got it through my thick skull that I should have been buying when everyone was losing their shit like old man Buffett said. The US isn't going to sit there and force its citizens to eat shit, deflation shit for 20 years like the Japanese because we'll start blowing up buildings and bridges and missile silos if it gets bad enough, so you gotta go long baby I think this is how I graduated from being a fucking dumbass to being like normal average and just being average has worked pretty good for like 15 years haha

or easier ways to make money without shorting anything haha

yea Nintendo is real good man. It's not just the consoles or Mario but Pokémon which I think I really underestimated And I understand some people on this board think there is another low or a new low coming at some point in the future and that may certainly turn out to be true, absolutely that could be true. But put a gun to my head and for my money I would bet the low is in, that the low is in for rest of trumps presidency