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Added a quarter to NTDOY

One of my favorite parts of Married With Children was Al Bundy's blue collar wisdom. For example, at his 18th birthday at the strip club when Bud gave his roll of money to the first woman he saw and was bored the rest of the night, he told his dad "this place sucks if you have you money." and Al replied "son, everyplace sucks if you have no money." I was thinking of a couple of others. "No one can do you your pushups for you." - My Soccer Coach in High School. And when I used to kickbox my coach was fond of saying "If you're gonna punch somebody once, go ahead and punch them twice." What are some of your favorites?

Apple TV has Formula 1 thru 2030.

I'm surprised they aren't acquiring entire sports such as Formula One or the UFC.

He'll be right sooner or later! Although I'm not sure the "piece of shit" comment is warranted. He's just stating his belief...no different than the bulls or bears...or Blake and Cubs! Cheers!

If only more "oligarchs" did this: https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/snap-evan-spiegel-joins-mackenzie-072600191.html Cheers!

So, it's interesting. If you look at Holcim's press release at the time of the acquisition announcement, it talks about USD 1.5bn price or at that time, PEN = 5.0544bn. That it turn implies PEN 3.706bn equity value or PEN 8.10 per share based on 03/31/2026 debt levels, and probably closer to PEN 8.30 per share based on 06/30/2026 debt levels. That implies $11.90 per ADR and $12.20 per ADR respectively. Also, in an interview with Nicolai Tangen on 06/24/2026, the CEO of Holcim stated that the Peru market is amazing and is booming. So if I had to guess, the bid is going to be north of USD 13 per ADR to make sure that Holcim gets all of the 50% that it does not own. Time will tell.

TBF, those Chinese open source models have been heavily modified to censor stuff, at best. Worse, may have hidden Trojan horse in them. We won't really know until researchers take some extensive poking to it. We're seeing Google release cheaper models to address the cost, and over time, one of the hyperscaler will provide a free/open source model to run on their infrastructure to sell the service. Different systems, different limitations.

One thing that all Fairfax investors need to keep in mind. Mr. Watsa's holding period for his family shares is forever, and he has stated that publicly and that the continuity after him is his family. They have a dividend to support their lifestyle and time is almost inconsequential to them. And unlike most other investments where you can take a 5 or 10 or even 15 year perspective, I think Fairfax is one of those that could frustrate you even longer and genuinely test your patience. Also given the kind of companies they invest in, cyclicals, turnarounds, leveraged etc, it's not always a sure thing and neither is timeline apparently a major concern. Take resolute forest products., or blackberry, They were failures as far as investments are concerned, but I believe even worse is it took a decade or more to realize that. That can be true even with potential successes, Fairfax India/BIAL (or even Eurobank for instance). In the former's case Shareholders are waiting 11+ yrs with sub par returns whilst they are told shares are cheap and do not reflect intrinsic value. They may very well be, but I haven't seen much done to realize this value. So that's the level of patience that you require. I'm speaking as a shareholder of Fairfax since 2008. I've seen good bad and raging bull market in this time. Even with the run over the last five years, compared to indexing, I am still behind on the portion of shares I bought then. So if you are investing money you need for a college expenses, or retirement or something of the sort with a fixed timeline, you need to take heed, even if it's a decade out.

Interesting to see the asymmetry in inexpensive drones for attack versus expensive drone defense. Probably one of the reasons the US is interested in bringing the war with Iran to a close. US air defense missiles are quite expensive and the war has already likely depleted years worth of current production levels needed just to replace what has already been expended.

AGTF has had too much promises and too little delivery. They have a solid base with a delevered balance sheet now, but CEO seem to be talking about growth opportunities. I'm sure the CEO it's in frequent contact with Mr. Watsa. One thing for sure, if he's a good operator and discusses capital allocation with Prem, then in time a good result is very likely. But like many Fairfax investments, that timeline could drive a lot of people crazy.

A gas station masquerading as a county runs out of gas:

Doomers gotta doom.

Sold my AHRT position

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/26/us/texas-schools-bible-curriculum-vote

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/jeremy-grantham-says-this-is-the-most-expensive-market-in-american-history.html

Thanks @Charlie I got the article and got it translated. I think it is sad that as a society we aren’t having more kids, plus I agree with the point, we are trying to over diagnose. I keep saying to my wife, that years ago people just on with things and don’t overthink it, and most of them turned out ok. @Xerxes and @Castanza I agree part of it is societal. We’ve set quite a rigid path for kids nowadays something counter to our entire history. It’s funny you mention school, I was recently thinking the same, and I’m fully expecting complaints from teachers already.

Thanks for laying this out — I agree that Holcim’s intention to tender for all remaining shares is an important incremental point, and the overall setup is interesting. I may be missing something here, so please correct me if I am reading the filings incorrectly, but I think there is one nuance on the implied price. One caveat on the “~$13/ADR” number: it comes from the higher S/1.85037bn figure in the initial 13D. But CPAC’s May 27 6-K / SMV response includes Holcim’s statement that no CPAC per-share price was expressly agreed; instead, the agreed price was S/1,640,327,224.69 for 99.992136% of Inversiones ASPI. If you allocate that amount to ASPI’s 211,985,547 CPAC common shares, it implies about S/7.74 per CPAC common share, or S/38.69 per ADR. At roughly 1 PEN = 0.292 USD, that is only about US$11.3 per ADR. So I would be cautious about treating ~$13/ADR as the floor. The final OPA price will depend on the SMV valuation process, but the lower disclosed ASPI purchase-price figure suggests a materially lower anchor.

Gee, I thought they came to America for the trash bag lined streets of NY and LA!

Borrowing from Andrew Sullivan regarding World Cup visitors: And it’s always a joy when Europeans express the same amazement I felt all those decades ago as I first discovered this wonderland. “Everyone’s just so nice,” said one, which is what every relative who has ever visited me always says about America. Always. If you think the American way of life is ending, you should listen to some of these star-struck visitors. “Indiana is exactly how I dreamed America would be. Small towns, wide open spaces, cornfields, barns, cute houses, diners, water towers, friendly people, great food, American flags everywhere, and so much more!” said one Swede, who’d also been won over by Ranch dressing (a true revelation). By getting peeps to go to the heartland for matches in various stadiums, rather than the usual coastal tourist fare, the World Cup is actually giving a more representative picture of the entire country and it’s a huge hit. https://open.substack.com/pub/andrewsullivan/p/dude-lmao-this-is-a-gas-station?r=9iue0&utm_medium=ios

Egypt vs Iran is being designated by the world cup organizing committee as the Pride Day Match, coinciding with Seattle's Pride festival. They are encouraging LGBTQ+ visibility, with rainbow flags and drag queens. It's something straight out of a South Park episode.

Norwegians on the subway: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ5Tr1AxHsI/

Will Berkshire finally be included into the Dow Jones index? https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-dow-berkshire-hathaway-alphabet-verizon-2ca2b737 Cheers!

Agreed. It is not inconceivable that the AI bubble will be deflated by overzealous government regulation. Anthrophic has been blacklisted by the government and their best product is export contoured which being quite a bit of bureaucracy with it an limits sales into man markets. Now OpenAI looks like it’s in the same doghouse. I don’t see how this business can be IPO‘d with these risk factors.

Smart to do a dividend growth strategy. Ultimately would attract more dividend focused benchmarks and quant funds.