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Well, semi's are now 19.7% of the S&P500 and 0DTE's are over half of daily retail volume. Something tells me this won't last. Overall the market is not that crazy expensive but we have earnings growth coming out of our ears through semi's. One has to wonder what would happen in a couple of scenario's that people just aren't willing to put much stock in currently as all capital gets sucked into the same sector, leaving big pockets of the market completely discarded. There is only one prevalent scenario that many currently seems to accept: AI technology will keep improving at the same rate and hardware demand for it will far outstrip supply for the near future. I'm agnostic on it all but I do know semi's becoming 1/4th or 1/3th of S&P500 is likely to be exuberant and not sustainable unless we actually magically get true AGI. Good luck to all participating though. So I kinda wonder what the rational upside from here could be for momentum guys, AI bulls, trend followers, passive investors blindly following the indexes, ... because at some point we reach a sudden stop and people will likely once more be surprised that no bells get rung at the top. I've been selling off most of my passive investing portfolio since a few weeks as I was up nicely for the year, albeit still lagging the market of course. I'd rather hold some cash and specific individual investments than have 20% of my net worth in semi's. I've enjoyed some upside through this exposure but I'll let others bat for that extra sector market cap doubling here!

Look at Telus. If the dividend is simply kept as is, you will do very well. SD

Really nothing to do with Trump. The last two Prime Ministers have not been able to live in 24 Sussex, because of rat infestations, electrical issues, massive renovations that need to be conducted, etc. Nothing like the White House that did not need this ridiculous ballroom. Canadians are sometimes too humble for their own good and previous leaders felt bad about spending a large amount of money to renovate the Prime Minister's residence. Carney finally realized this cannot be delayed any further, and it does not look good for the country. It's no different than any historical site that needs renovations. Cheers!

6 month YTD return just isn't meaningfull, as todays stella numbers could quite easily turn into shit tomorrow. The key takeaway is what have you done today to avoid losing it if the market turns on you. SD

Great point! Hadn’t thought about that before, but it makes great sense.

Maybe they're trying to sail through any type of insider lockup so they can start dumping shares on the market when multiples improve?

@dartmonkey, i appreciate the feedback. I will be making a few edits to my original based on your comments. Your second comment is bang on. When it comes to capital allocation, Fairfax bought low in 2015-2017. And from 2014 to 2025 they have also been selling high: First Capital, ICICI Lombard, pet Insurance and Ambridge. The sales realized significant proceeds and investment gains… that was in addition to the best in class growth in net premiums written per share they were able to deliver. Impressive. I have a coming article on how they have used partnerships as a strategy to grow their insurance business especially over the past 15 years. GIG is a good example of where Fairfax was the minority partner. Allied World isa good example of where they were the majority partner. What is so impressive about Fairfax is all the different levers they are pulling these days to drive per share value over the long term. Their capital allocation toolbox is full. And they have become very proficient with how they use each tool.

I wouldn't put myself in da circular file but it really was terrible selling all my ES futures in April for bullshit gains, just to watch it rally another 800 points afterwards. And I also got smoked shorting silver in January, only to see it drop 50 points after I covered Well at least tobacco is outperforming the markets...

Ultimately Masayoshi Son superpower was not investing, it was his ability to believe in himself and pull on his vast network for the next big thing (I.e investment) It is telling that for someone who mentioned AI hundreds of times in the past ten years in his conference call, his company was not invested in OpenAI. It is telling that for someone who correctly identified Jack Ma as the standard bearer of e-commerce in China, he failed to correctly identify Elon Musk as the standard bearer for the space economy and EV revolution. And instead got carried away by Neumann and WeWork.

Your numbers show that the increase in all metrics, net premiums written , investments, investment float and book value, all increased slightly more per share than thety did in absolute terms, so your conclulsion ("Much of the dilution had been offset through organic growth") actually seems understated. It seems to me it should be "All of the dilution, and more, had been offset through growth." Apart from that nitpick, one other point that perhaps bears mentioning is that Fairfax has showed flexibility not only by buying insurance assets when the market was soft, but also by selling insurance assets when the price was very good. The 3 examples that come to mind are Vault Insurance (2021), the big Pethealth sale (2022) and the life insurance business Eurolife (2025). They also bought the 50% of Gulf Insurance they didn't already own in 2024 (40% from Kipco, and 10% in a squeeze-out of minority investors.) In other words, they have been opportunistic about insurance companies, buying a lot when the market was soft, but also selling some when the market was hard, and even buying some (Gulf) when the market was hard but the strategic reasons were good.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-weschler-stock-davita-sirius-e9ee54aa DVA & the much maligned SIRI had a great first half of the year, plus Delta up around 50%.

More like Lag 7

I'm in the same boat with some of the same stocks, S&P has been trouncing me lately. But I beat it for several years running prior to that, just got to play the long game and stick to your investing philosophy.

We're just doing the dirty work your country is too cowardly to do. Don't worry CW - we got you covered. You can go back to cheering for the IRGC, Fidel's buddies and China Carney.

Interesting that they waited until a multi year low in broker multiples to IPO. If they'd done it 18 months ago the same results might have received double the value. And doing it at the same time that BWIN is rumored to consider going private again.

My returns have been abysmal lately. My top positions are BTC, JOE, MSTR, and FRFHF in that order. I’m back to where I was at the end of October 2024. I don’t really care about short term results. Lumpy returns are fine. BTC (and MSTR) will recover and continue growing, JOE will eventually break out higher and, of course, Fairfax is going to be just fine long term. Why fret over short term returns?

I don't really give a ____ when i look at my short term returns and they are negative. That doesnt mean i dont look at it regularly and wish that the "thesis" would play out faster. Markets would recognize ADBE is the creative operating system for all enterprises. That Berkowitz would let the sell pressure rise faster for JOE. So the manamgent execution could shine instead of having his black cloud of selling over it. That my otc microcaps could get noticed for how sexy they are. But i know what I own and Im cool with whatever the market wants to rate them at.

I think it’s by design to the extent, it’s what management is compensated on. Forward ROE improves when shares are bought back above book value all else equal. Some pay special dividends which hurts shareholders when the stock trades at a premium to book.

Took the words out of my mouth. When was the last time the US won a war? Iran? Sure the US destroyed Iran's navy, air force, etc. But So far Iran still has its nuclear abilities, still has caves full of missiles, and now, now it seems to have gained control of the SOH, not to mention potentially being awarded billions of dollars from the US. Even Trump hasn't got the balls to actually attempt to invade the country. And Canada is 6 times larger than Iran, and 15 times the size of Afghanistan. And size does matter when it comes to controlling or invading territory Winning a war takes more than the best weapons. Look at the French resistance in WWII and the problems a small group of people caused the mighty German war machine. Look at the failure of Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba and the futility of the hardships the US has imposed on the Cuban people for nearly 70 years. Look at the embarrassment when the US was forced to flee Saigon. Look at the fiasco that took place when the US fled Afghanistan. And one more thing. There are a lot of Americans that would rather join Canada than fight us.

Am I the only one who's completely indifferent to anything that occurs in such a short time frame?

I'm down 7% YTD, which is pretty terrible particularly considering the index performance. Eats up the last few years of outperformance. On the bright side, I feel good about my current portfolio composition.

You need to be more understanding. Now that MAGA's favorite island is off limits, there's no democrat in the white house to "peacefully protest", and their great white hope has kind of shat the bed in Iran, there is a concerning lack of positive talking points. So when in doubt? Fall back on the tried-and-true: A good old-fashioned and self-administered suppository of 1950s conservative talking points!

I tend to make quite concentrated bets and it causes a lot of volatility in the YoY metrics. Down this year due to being heavily concentrated in ADBE. but i have long strong conviction and in some future period it will have an outsided return. Or who knows a few years from now ill be down 75% and ADBE will be at a PE of < 3 because AI is killing it while revenue continues to grow at 10% and i will continue to cry myself to sleep.

I am using Interactive Brokers and Trade Republic for this one. Worked fine with IBKR; with Trade Republic, I had to file another acceptance instruction after the offer price increase. A colleague of mine did it through Deutsche Bank maxblue, and it was also sufficient to file the acceptance instruction only once. As settlement is generally T+2 in Germany, it should theoretically work until Wednesday, July 1. Usually, brokers have shorter acceptance periods, but you can sometimes extend those by contacting their customer service. I can generally recommend IBKR, as they seem to be the fastest when it comes to notifying you about the offer.

It turns out enduring London will be worth it. I heard back from the Royal Institution today and even though they are closed on July 27, they are letting me and Lyn in to tour the Ri!