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I ask forgiveness...Cubs finally beat me in to submission fully believing on day one Trump ended wars, no new wars would or could start, and that I'd have all my dead cousins back cause Vietnam would have never happened. I looked up and saw this excessively saggy jowls human with painted cheeks, fake blond hair, huge cardboard shoulder pads and thought to myself, "Cubs gotta be right on this or why else would we have elected this clown looking goofball?"

Funny that i have a very large % ADBE position but don't pay for them. Funny enough. I integrated my AI agent with a MCP for GIMP this week. So now i can tell my agent to edit stuff and It opens GIMP on my computer and starts editing the image there. Instead of just "attempting to regenerate a new image" with nano banana or whatever. Im 100% confident this is underway with ADBE to where they will make a MCP that is callable via API's to paying customers that charges on a token system that will enable your AI generated image to get cleaned up at the pixel level using their software suite. There will always be cheap chumps like me using GIMP. But ADBE will remain and it will become standard and more robust within all enterprises. the freemium offerings are just to ensure that new rising generation of workers continue to stay in and close to the ADBE ecosystem.

I recently listened to a podcast that perfectly captured where we are today: we are currently in the "command line" era of AI. Everything is in its infancy and exploratory phase. The technology relies on us forcing static prompts into isolated models, doing the heavy lifting of copy-pasting and workflow coordination ourselves. But the truly interesting phase is going to happen when the infrastructure layer—the chips, power, cooling, and data centers—finally stabilizes. Once these physical bottlenecks clear, the market value will inevitably migrate upward, splitting into a few distinct waves: The Agentic Orchestration Plane: Autonomous software layers that act as the hands and feet for AI, plugging directly into the deep, messy, legacy systems that actually run global enterprises. Proprietary Data Fabrics: High-performance retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) networks that monetize proprietary, domain-specific data context rather than raw, commoditized computing power. Verticalized AI-Native SaaS: Hyper-specialized software giants scaling up usage and adoption within their own niche verticals, moving from seat-based licenses to full task automation. There is a investment arbitrage sitting in the market right now. Because Wall Street is looking at this through a clouded window, it is pricing many SaaS giants like dying, low-margin utilities. The market is completely blind to how early this cycle is, and is missing the impending transition of these software platforms profitable, consumption based autonomous execution engines. While the hardware grid is heavily priced in, the data, orchestration, and security layers quite attractive as everyone is chasing the capex in semi's and datacenters.

Added to BOLSAA and PRX (Prosus) on this quiet day.

This is probably a bubble.. but it is too obvious, and too many people are calling a bubble, which probably means it is not ready to pop. So other than identifying the current bottle necks (that everyone already knows and has bid up).. lets have some fun and put our minds together instead of trying to time a top guess what the next rotation will be. I'll start... I think the next rotation will be into small cap stocks. YTD VB is outperforming VOO. To me small cpas seem like low hanging fruit in terms of benefiting from AI. Large bureaucratic organizations are slow to move, and rolling out AI across a large organization is expensive, but I could see smaller companies quickly adopting. I think it is probably a counter intuitive take since if we are truly late cycle with rising interest rates then small cap's probably don't outperform, but we have seen a lot of weird stuff happening like Gold rallying during a bull market, bonds and stocks dropped during 2022, etc.. I am curious what other ideas are out there?

Probabilistic investing often looks like luck.

Over the last couple weeks sold a bunch of Dec. 2028 BRK puts ATM and slightly out of the money. $35-$40 at strikes between $460-480

speculating on a take over?

Dealraker, I think you missed the Art of the Deal here...Trump is luring Iran into negotiations with honey...everyone knows Iranian's love honey, especially in their baklava-like desserts! You beat them over the head with missiles, then give them everything they want plus some honey (especially Mamuka), and then WHAMO...you get them to sign over all of their nuclear material! Works every time. Cheers!

That’s what makes a market. I don’t expect them sell at these prices. I think they will ultimately sell the whole bank to a much larger European bank at a premium which will facilitate the exit.

Nice.

Yes. It is a bank. In Greece. That doesn't mean it can't compound nicely from here. But should it trade at much higher multiples? No.

Even simpler clarification: One was a deal, one is an MOU.

My bet is all the lucky Hynix and Samsung funboys are gonna pour all them bonus cash (and then some, borrow baby borrow) into real estate Average consumer? Probably tighten da belts even more due to higher cost of goods due to currency crashing Oh man it's gonna suck to pay these borrow fees to IBKR again for shorting EWY, like it's gonna suck ass

Man, we really are going to see no wealth effect on consumers on the way up and a massive recession once this turns around, won't we? Rip Coupang & co.

I know bro, so it can grind higher with Johnny Come Latelys jumping in da action But when a big number like 10k flashes across da headlines and smartphone feeds, you know something can turn baby, it can turn!

Close to 60% of the KOSPI are now Samsung and SK Hynix. Also this from the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/stock-market-ai-chips-taiwan-korea-01b7d385?mod=hp_lead_pos5

Wow - these guys and truly disgusting genocidal animals. This post was from the minister of security.

@djokovic1, thanks for the comment. Good luck with the pitch

For simple clarification:

Would love to see how thats going to work if they're serious. They have $1.5bn of debt already and are still paying earn outs. To take private would probably require $2.2bn of capital and they dont have the cash flow to cover almost any of that using debt. It would also take them out of the acquisition market for years. They made a massive acquisition at peak multiples and have watched industry valuations halve. Probably a lot of very.frustrated insiders saying "do something"

article is behind a paywall. when it went to print, speculators followed hence the volume/price spike. https://www.insuranceinsiderus.com/login-access?returnUrl=%2F&zephr_sso_ott=rhsIeg

I seriously thought about killing that bird.

Rapid rate increases, long length of time rate increases, and expanding broker stock PE multiples - while the "how long" isn't known...these guarantee other side-of-the-mountain outcomes. Wasn't intrinsic value actually being pressured downwards by sure-to-be-reversed or stagnated rate escalation - unsustainable rate increases? When the stock price of AJG for instance was getting higher and higher PE multiples...wasn't the future obvious - but timeline unknown? Stock prices Intrinsic value growth Rate cycle I think the three above move separately, not in unison. Isn't the best time to invest in times of violent rate decline times, when stock prices have been clobbered? It seems to me the progress of the business is much more steady than rates or stock prices. The business is emotionally stable; rates are "party late" and "sleep in" by nature; and stock prices are clearly manic depressive. Time of change for the three? Somewhat unknown, but the past is likely to give guidance. We also have AI affecting likely all three of the above, or at least it eventually will. I label this 100% unknown as to its affect.

Who knows precisely what "people" he is talking about. Clearly there are different elements of fanatics in control of Iran. That is one of the main issues with any negotiations. Who is in charge today and who will be in charge tomorrow? You still gotta try but with realistic expectations. Anything better than a nuclear-armed Iran should be deemed a success. Anything better than that is gravy.