FFH (FRFHF) ownership poll

[shalab]

It would be interesting to see if people have still money allocated to FFH and if so how much of their portfolio is in it.

 

 

[ourkid8]

Unfortunately FFH is around a 12-15% position.  It has really been an anchor for the last couple of years.

 

Tks,

S

[StubbleJumper]

I don't want to think about my percentage ownership of FFH because that will make me think of my "look through" ownership of RIM.  So, if I have 30% of my assets in FFH, that means effectively I have about a 6% position in RIM?  :'(

[beerbaron]

I don't want to think about my percentage ownership of FFH because that will make me think of my "look through" ownership of RIM.  So, if I have 30% of my assets in FFH, that means effectively I have about a 6% position in RIM?  :'(

 

You could always short RIM to have a 0% net exposure.

 

BeerBaron

[ERICOPOLY]

I don't want to think about my percentage ownership of FFH because that will make me think of my "look through" ownership of RIM.  So, if I have 30% of my assets in FFH, that means effectively I have about a 6% position in RIM?  :'(

 

You could always short RIM to have a 0% net exposure.

 

BeerBaron

 

That would be an interesting psychological experiment.  I doubt the critics of the RIM investment have the same amount of conviction in shorting RIM to hedge their FFH, as their vocal grumblings from the peanut gallery.

[BRK IN MKE]

About 25% for me. Up from 0% from just over a year ago.

[StubbleJumper]

I don't want to think about my percentage ownership of FFH because that will make me think of my "look through" ownership of RIM.  So, if I have 30% of my assets in FFH, that means effectively I have about a 6% position in RIM?  :'(

 

You could always short RIM to have a 0% net exposure.

 

BeerBaron

 

 

 

Yeah, you're right.  I probably should either short RIM or just sell my FFH shares.  I've allowed the RIM exposure to grow incrementally without taking an offsetting position at any point in time.  Having taken my eye off the ball, it's now grown to the point where it's actually meaningful (especially with the recent purchases of the converts)....and there's no real reason to believe that Prem is done with the RIM purchases.

[rkbabang]

I won't short RIM even though I think it has a greater chance of bankruptcy than it does of being a successful investment at this point, mainly because I've never shorted a stock and I'm not going to start now. It was a much better and more obvious short at $40/share than it is now.  I have reduced my FFH holdings to <4% though.

[obtuse_investor]

Such bearish attitude against FFH is intriguing...

 

By the way, I am at ~11%.

[Uccmal]

Such bearish attitude against FFH is intriguing...

 

By the way, I am at ~11%.

 

What do you mean by that.  My take away is two fold.  One, the poll is not meaningful without knowing who formerly held FFH and no longer does.  Two, if the results are meaningful then a group of value investors is not finding a lot of value in FFh right now, or there are better values elsewhere. 

 

Obviously, lots of institutions see value in FFH, since they never have trouble issuing shares, but that is meaningless to me.  Thompson- Reuters has lots of shareholders and the stock hasn't budged for 20 years.

[obtuse_investor]

Such bearish attitude against FFH is intriguing...

 

By the way, I am at ~11%.

 

What do you mean by that.  My take away is two fold.  One, the poll is not meaningful without knowing who formerly held FFH and no longer does.  Two, if the results are meaningful then a group of value investors is not finding a lot of value in FFh right now, or there are better values elsewhere. 

 

Obviously, lots of institutions see value in FFH, since they never have trouble issuing shares, but that is meaningless to me.  Thompson- Reuters has lots of shareholders and the stock hasn't budged for 20 years.

 

I was merely making an observation. I realize the unscientific nature of this poll and would never make a decision based solely on it.

 

It is intriguing nonetheless. Agreed that a group of value investors aren't seeing much value in FFH these days-- I consider myself in this camp. Although, it is worth noticing that FFH's track record shows that often value isn't visible until it is evident to everyone. It is obviously too late by then.

 

This is why I haven't sold out of my position and also haven't added to in 2013.

 

[tyska]

"What do you mean by that.  My take away is two fold.  One, the poll is not meaningful without knowing who formerly held FFH and no longer does."

 

I've been in and out of it 4 times over the years. At one point close to 50% of my holdings, but at present I have no holdings of FFH in any accounts that I have.

[giofranchi]

Usually I look at the board as a “disproval” or “confirmation” tool: it is a community populated by the most savvy investors I know, therefore, if they agree or disagree with any investment thesis of mine, I take notice: and I usually heed the consensus on the board.

But, as far as FFH is concerned, they are so much difficult to follow, that even the board becomes imo a “contrarian” tool: and I won’t heed the consensus on the board.

The more investors are completely out of FFH, the happier I am to hold on to my shares. And I haven’t sold a single one. I intend to hold my shares, and possibly to increase my ownership of FFH, for the next 20 years. We will see. :)

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

[thefatbaboon]

0%, but never been an owner. 

 

First looked at FFH a couple years ago and initially put off by the equity hedges.  But the more I've seen since the less I'm interested.  FFH isn't a Berkshire-like vehicle.  Berkshire is a collection of some of the world's prime assets and talent.  FFH has more in common with a fund manager like Einhorn, Loeb etc.  That's no bad thing - but I don't like FFH's assets (other than a couple of the bits they did in Greece and a couple large cap equity positions I can easily put on myself) and if I were looking for a manager there are quite a few I'd pick over FFH.

 

The FFH lovers will hate me for this, but I always found the board's title amusing, like an O&G board calling itself Corner of Exxon and Sandridge !

[Kraven]

0%, but never been an owner. 

 

First looked at FFH a couple years ago and initially put off by the equity hedges.  But the more I've seen since the less I'm interested.  FFH isn't a Berkshire-like vehicle.  Berkshire is a collection of some of the world's prime assets and talent.  FFH has more in common with a fund manager like Einhorn, Loeb etc.  That's no bad thing - but I don't like FFH's assets (other than a couple of the bits they did in Greece and a couple large cap equity positions I can easily put on myself) and if I were looking for a manager there are quite a few I'd pick over FFH.

 

The FFH lovers will hate me for this, but I always found the board's title amusing, like an O&G board calling itself Corner of Exxon and Sandridge !

 

There go your chances at being told the secret handshake.

[Parsad]

You are only as good as your last game in most circumstances.  Prem is getting kicked in the gut at the moment by the DIY'ers, since they look like geniuses over the last 4 years.  Many who did well over the last ten years on here, would not have done so, if it weren't for Prem's prognostications and their significant leveraged positions in Fairfax.  Now they've done great over 5 years, and it's Fairfax missed the boat on this one! 

 

I understand the frustration, but at the same time, how many have done as well over 25 years?  That's right...look at all those hands drop! 

 

If Europe did blow up, as it very well could have, and still may at some point, everyone would be talking about how smart Prem is.  Instead, they are talking about how stupid he is for having hedges. 

 

Even for us, we only had about 5% in Fairfax in the last couple of years, but as much as I would bet on myself...I would never bet against him! 

 

The degrees by which investors are correct or incorrect, is far thinner than one might expect.  BAC could have exploded...MBIA could have exploded....FIAT could have gone bust if not for intervention...many other winners that worked out did so only by the grace of God...that grace being fiat currencies and a massive attempt to influence interest rates.

 

So Prem is a loser for the last 4-5 years...big whoop...they called him that 10 years ago too!  Cheers!

[OracleofCarolina]

Ditto what Parsad said!!

 

 

[Guest valueInv]

You are only as good as your last game in most circumstances.  Prem is getting kicked in the gut at the moment by the DIY'ers, since they look like geniuses over the last 4 years.  Many who did well over the last ten years on here, would not have done so, if it weren't for Prem's prognostications and their significant leveraged positions in Fairfax.  Now they've done great over 5 years, and it's Fairfax missed the boat on this one! 

 

I understand the frustration, but at the same time, how many have done as well over 25 years?  That's right...look at all those hands drop! 

 

If Europe did blow up, as it very well could have, and still may at some point, everyone would be talking about how smart Prem is.  Instead, they are talking about how stupid he is for having hedges. 

 

Even for us, we only had about 5% in Fairfax in the last couple of years, but as much as I would bet on myself...I would never bet against him! 

 

The degrees by which investors are correct or incorrect, is far thinner than one might expect.  BAC could have exploded...MBIA could have exploded....FIAT could have gone bust if not for intervention...many other winners that worked out did so only by the grace of God...that grace being fiat currencies and a massive attempt to influence interest rates.

 

So Prem is a loser for the last 4-5 years...big whoop...they called him that 10 years ago too!  Cheers!

 

Could the same be said of Fairfax? That Fairfax worked out only by the grace of God?

[Hawks]

Owned FFH 2 or 3 times over the years; I remember the days of the short sellers and under $100. Currently have 0%.

[obtuse_investor]

Could the same be said of Fairfax? That Fairfax worked out only by the grace of God?

 

You could say it but it wouldn't be very true.

 

On a long timeline, luck cancels out. The one still standing must be skilled.

 

[Parsad]

You are only as good as your last game in most circumstances.  Prem is getting kicked in the gut at the moment by the DIY'ers, since they look like geniuses over the last 4 years.  Many who did well over the last ten years on here, would not have done so, if it weren't for Prem's prognostications and their significant leveraged positions in Fairfax.  Now they've done great over 5 years, and it's Fairfax missed the boat on this one! 

 

I understand the frustration, but at the same time, how many have done as well over 25 years?  That's right...look at all those hands drop! 

 

If Europe did blow up, as it very well could have, and still may at some point, everyone would be talking about how smart Prem is.  Instead, they are talking about how stupid he is for having hedges. 

 

Even for us, we only had about 5% in Fairfax in the last couple of years, but as much as I would bet on myself...I would never bet against him! 

 

The degrees by which investors are correct or incorrect, is far thinner than one might expect.  BAC could have exploded...MBIA could have exploded....FIAT could have gone bust if not for intervention...many other winners that worked out did so only by the grace of God...that grace being fiat currencies and a massive attempt to influence interest rates.

 

So Prem is a loser for the last 4-5 years...big whoop...they called him that 10 years ago too!  Cheers!

 

Could the same be said of Fairfax? That Fairfax worked out only by the grace of God?

 

Yes of course!  That's why it's not really fair to call them a loser or winner.  If investment managers make it 25 plus years, they deserve a little respect for not blowing themselves up well before that!  Cheers!

[Guest valueInv]

You are only as good as your last game in most circumstances.  Prem is getting kicked in the gut at the moment by the DIY'ers, since they look like geniuses over the last 4 years.  Many who did well over the last ten years on here, would not have done so, if it weren't for Prem's prognostications and their significant leveraged positions in Fairfax.  Now they've done great over 5 years, and it's Fairfax missed the boat on this one! 

 

I understand the frustration, but at the same time, how many have done as well over 25 years?  That's right...look at all those hands drop! 

 

If Europe did blow up, as it very well could have, and still may at some point, everyone would be talking about how smart Prem is.  Instead, they are talking about how stupid he is for having hedges. 

 

Even for us, we only had about 5% in Fairfax in the last couple of years, but as much as I would bet on myself...I would never bet against him! 

 

The degrees by which investors are correct or incorrect, is far thinner than one might expect.  BAC could have exploded...MBIA could have exploded....FIAT could have gone bust if not for intervention...many other winners that worked out did so only by the grace of God...that grace being fiat currencies and a massive attempt to influence interest rates.

 

So Prem is a loser for the last 4-5 years...big whoop...they called him that 10 years ago too!  Cheers!

 

Could the same be said of Fairfax? That Fairfax worked out only by the grace of God?

 

Yes of course!  That's why it's not really fair to call them a loser or winner.  If investment managers make it 25 plus years, they deserve a little respect for not blowing themselves up well before that!  Cheers!

 

Could something have changed at Fairfax that would cause average or below average performance for the next 25?

 

Managers who thrive in a certain environment don't always perform well in another. RIM being the classic example.

 

The only real question in front of us is whether FFH is going to perform well in the future.

If you want to applaud the last 25 years, give him an award.

[thefatbaboon]

You are only as good as your last game in most circumstances.  Prem is getting kicked in the gut at the moment by the DIY'ers, since they look like geniuses over the last 4 years.  Many who did well over the last ten years on here, would not have done so, if it weren't for Prem's prognostications and their significant leveraged positions in Fairfax.  Now they've done great over 5 years, and it's Fairfax missed the boat on this one! 

….

So Prem is a loser for the last 4-5 years...big whoop...they called him that 10 years ago too!  Cheers!

 

Don't disagree with anything you said and I didn't mean to kick Prem while he's down - maybe my joke was in bad taste. 

 

I just don't think FFH is a similar thing to BRK.  FFH is an asset manager like quite a few others.  Einhorn, Loeb, Paulson, Ackman, Lampert…etc…some have a bit of insurance, some control positions, some straight equities, some wholly owned stuff, some macro.  Some got things right in the housing meltdown, others got things right in the aftermath.  Everyone on this board will have their own opinions about which of these various managers they prefer and why.   

[Pauly]

So Watsa jumps in and out of positions and makes huge commodity bets with shareholder funds while charging them 2 and 20?

I really don't like his BBRY involvement, but I wouldn't resort to name calling :P 

[Partner24]

Well, over the last 10 years, I had skin in the game. It's easy to support Prem or critizice him, when you had a very significant part of your own family portfolio in the company, I guess you see things in a slightly different perspective.

 

When you take a look at FFH history, the greatness has been cyclical. I'm happy for those who owned FFH from the beginnings through 1998. These were spectacular years. Since then, it's been ok on a book value per share growth point of view, but far from being great.

 

I'll take my own experience as a shareholder. I've mostly bought my shares in the 2003-2006 period and kept them. Since 2003-2006, it's been good overall, but not great. I've also been a MKL shareholder from quite some time. They reach for the silver medal and that perspective served us well. The issue with FFH is size and their cigar butt habit. Cigar butt and turnaround investing is great when you have a small portfolio size...it's tough when you get bigger.

 

On the macro view, FFH also often has the tendency to wear pessimistic glasses. That kept them from different bubbles (japan, tech stocks, credit burst, etc.), but over the last few years, frankly it's been tought to keep the faith AND skin in the game.

 

Recently, my new investments have been in small and undervaluated businesses (like PDRX). Had some success with this new strategy so far because I can be very patient, focus on intrinsic value and can tolerate very small volume and very wide stock fluctuations.

 

Cheers!