what are you selling today?

[Spekulatius]

26 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

They can destroy TDG by not including their products on the next generation of airplanes or by using this threat tell them to share economics on existing planes.  PMA manufacturers can team up with airlines to destroy existing after-parts business.  

Is the aftermarket not competing with the aircraft manufacturers aftermarket business to some extent. I think the biggest risk to OEM is regulatory. The  FAA could make it easier to get OEM parts certified and or other rules in place to encourage competition. It’s after all regulation that enables these profit margins so regulation could also take them away.

[Eldad]

24 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

They can destroy TDG by not including their products on the next generation of airplanes or by using this threat tell them to share economics on existing planes.  PMA manufacturers can team up with airlines to destroy existing after-parts business.  

Possibly. The beauty is no one is going to spend a bunch of money to start a parts program and get it approved to compete with TDG for an old obsolete aircraft part. That’s why they have no competition on 80% of their products. 
 

I would think TDG would tell them to pound sand and then would start buying the suppliers for the new aircraft after a certain amount of years when others saw it as not desirable because they moved on to getting ready for the shinny next gen. Like they have always done. 

[Eldad]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Is the aftermarket not competing with the aircraft manufacturers aftermarket business to some extent. I think the biggest risk to OEM is regulatory. The  FAA could make it easier to get OEM parts certified and or other rules in place to encourage competition. It’s after all regulation that enables these profit margins so regulation could also take them away.

Yes that is the risk. But will a government employee or elected official risk their job with the possible safety issues that they might be blamed for by deregulating? 

[Spekulatius]

4 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Yes that is the risk. But will a government employee or elected official risk their job with the possible safety issues that they might be blamed for by deregulating? 

The FAA won’t do this on its own, it would have to come from top down (Exec order from President or bipartisan legislation). Even with this in place, the airplane manufacturers would not have the means (manpower,  manufacturing  capability) to deal with ten thousand of different parts, so it’s not like turning on a switch.

[Eldad]

Just now, Spekulatius said:

The FAA won’t do this on its own, it would have to come from top down (Exec order from President or bipartisan legislation). Even with this in place, the airplane manufacturers would not have the means (manpower,  manufacturing  capability) to deal with ten thousand of different parts, so it’s not like turning on a switch.

Yeah if I’m Trump or any other President I’m not touching that with a 10 foot pole. The next crash is automatically your fault. 

[Marco Van Basten]

43 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Possibly. The beauty is no one is going to spend a bunch of money to start a parts program and get it approved to compete with TDG for an old obsolete aircraft part. That’s why they have no competition on 80% of their products. 
 

I would think TDG would tell them to pound sand and then would start buying the suppliers for the new aircraft after a certain amount of years when others saw it as not desirable because they moved on to getting ready for the shinny next gen. Like they have always done. 

Well, if TDG tells Boeing and Airbus to go pound sand, then they will have no content on the new planes and their business will cease to exist in 20 or 30 years.  Now, they can always go and acquire others but that costs a lot of money and  the stock is NOT priced assuming existing business goes to zero.  It is pricing in growth of around 3-4% ahead of inflation per annum, assuming all of the free cash flow goes to shareholders. 

[Marco Van Basten]

49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Is the aftermarket not competing with the aircraft manufacturers aftermarket business to some extent. I think the biggest risk to OEM is regulatory. The  FAA could make it easier to get OEM parts certified and or other rules in place to encourage competition. It’s after all regulation that enables these profit margins so regulation could also take them away.

Spek, I am sorry, I don't fully understand your comment.  Are you asking whether Boeing/Airbus compete with the part suppliers in the after-market business?  TDG makes both OEM and after-market sales.  

[bizaro86]

Just now, Marco Van Basten said:

Well, if TDG tells Boeing and Airbus to go pound sand, then they will have no content on the new planes and their business will cease to exist in 20 or 30 years.  Now, they can always go and acquire others but that costs a lot of money and  the stock is NOT priced assuming existing business goes to zero.  It is pricing in growth of around 3-4% ahead of inflation per annum, assuming all of the free cash flow goes to shareholders. 

 

If I was running Boeing/Airbus and TDG bid for inclusion in a new program I'd want a big upfront fee for including them, or the first part that goes in the original plane at a huge discount.

[Spekulatius]

Reduced GOOGL at bit on AH news,

[Cod Liver Oil]

Does anyone else want to sell LULU or NVO puts today? 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Does anyone else want to sell LULU or NVO puts today? 

with vol crush on LULU, no. NVO, yes. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

@lnofeisone ok give me your favorite flavor of NVO puts. March 50s?

[lnofeisone]

26 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@lnofeisone ok give me your favorite flavor of NVO puts. March 50s?

If you are going to sell 50s, you are better off selling 50 Jan 26 instead of 50 Mar 26. The trade I'm looking to put on is sell 50 Jan 26 P, buy 40 June 26 P for $1 credit. Come Jan, this will give me an opportunity to reload on Mar 50s and then in Mar another shot at Jun 50s. 

[Saluki]

Closed out a few 1/26 calls on CPNG. I kept the 2027 calls, but the common was up 9% today, so the calls had a nice one day bump and I took some chips off the table. 

[treasurehunt]

Trimmed some more BYD and will probably sell out of this position entirely. I think I overestimated their competitive advantages and underestimated the competition. The EV industry in China is mature enough that BYD's vertical integration is no longer a big edge. Foreign sales should be a bright spot for a while, but the competition will arrive there too in time.

 

This, plus the China risk as a US investor and the fact that BYD's businesses are capital intensive, means that the risk level is too high for my comfort. Of course, now that I've said all this, the stock is going to zoom straight up. 

[longlake95]

Trimming more HPS.a 

[throw123]

baba

[Jan]

sold 1/3 of my baba position

[ourkid8]

On 9/9/2025 at 9:40 AM, throw123 said:

baba

Why?

[ourkid8]

On 9/9/2025 at 12:02 PM, Jan said:

sold 1/3 of my baba position

 

Why?

[thowed]

On 9/9/2025 at 12:56 PM, longlake95 said:

Trimming more HPS.a 

 

Can I ask why?  Already down a bit, though obvs still up a lot since Spring.  Thanks

[longlake95]

11 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Can I ask why?  Already down a bit, though obvs still up a lot since Spring.  Thanks

There's more production capacity coming online - industry wide. I think it will be harder to capture price (and volume) now then in the past 3-4 years. I don't know if this is peak earnings or not, but get the sense growth is slowing. No more multiple expansion. Maybe here at $113 there's some margin of safety. I sold most of my HPS at $120-$140 over the past year.

[thowed]

Very reasonable.  Thank you.  It's had a good run!

[Saluki]

Sold a few shares of GOOGL in my retirement account. It's still my largest position but my retirement account is valuable real estate and I decided to take the tax free gains and buy a little more that has been beaten down too much. 

[Jan]

6 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

 

Why?

because I saw part of my baba position as more of a short term trade (i dont have to pay capital gains taxes) and to bring down my leverage a bit. Its still one of my bigger positions.