what are you selling today?

[brobro777]

Sold all my nasdaq futures 

 

 

[backtothebeach]

13 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

Sold all my nasdaq futures

 

Great trade!

[brobro777]

6 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Great trade!

 

Thanks man I had added along the way at 18645.25 and 18410.25 - watch, this is gonna probably go higher to 22k, it feels like there are lots of guys totally scared of missing out

 

anyway better to be lucky than good baby, better to be lucky than good

 

 

 

[decko]

Sold some hims from Dec buy. 

 

[Jaygo]

On 5/8/2025 at 10:17 AM, Jaygo said:

Sold the extra Linemar I bought around the Liberation day swoon. Good earnings yesterday but want to keep a tight lid on it. 

Left a lot on the table here. F..k !

[Saluki]

On 5/12/2025 at 3:43 PM, LC said:

Sold half my JOE position, this was after doubling the position 31+ days ago (so, back to my initial position size). This was done to harvest tax losses.

 

Every time I try this it bites me in the ass.  A month ago I harvested tax losses in my early Coupang shares. By the time 30 days hit and I could buy it back it was $26 

[LC]

I know, it is kind of hit-or-miss with me as well. 

In this case there were a few tangential factors I think working in my favor:

 

1) the entire market was at lows about 30 days ago. So it was easy to first double-down on positions with taxable losses. Not much different than buying shares without any position, as they were good value outright.

 

1a) I used options to get the 2x exposure. So if I had  1000 JOE shares, I bought 10 JOE Call options with enough time-to-expiry to execute outside a 30 day window. This limited the cash outlay needed.

 

2) I had taxable gains I harvested to offset (I sold BRK).

 

3) Because I already doubled up on the position, I wasn't "re-purchasing", instead when I closed the trade, I was going from 2000 shares of JOE exposure, back to my original 1000 shares (for example).

 

The risk of course is that you don't get a rebound and your now-doubled position also declines. But, that was a risk I was willing  to take when the entire market was in the dumps. As mentioned I use options and raised cash with BRK sales to execute this across a few positions (JOE, DFIN, etc.) and also leave me dry powder in case the market declines continued.

[LC]

So to the Coupang example (I did this with CPNG as well): Mar30-Apr4 I doubled my CPNG position when it was trading between 19-21. Now 31+ days later, the doubled position is trading at 26. If it was trading at 20, I would sell my higher-basis lots. But now I have no tax losses to harvest.

 

The same with DFIN - I doubled the position at 40$  per share...now it is at 55.

 

So these ones, I don't have any tax losses to harvest. But I prefer this way because now I have a bigger overall gain on the position.

 

If the stocks/market continued to decline (say CPNG from 19->15) your execution would be better: because you sold at 19 and can re-buy at 15.

 

I think options help here because you maintain the dry powder in case of a further decline, but also capture upside in case of a rebound. And if there is no volatility at all, you just execute Plan A: sell the high basis shares, capture the tax loss, and 30 days later execute the options to repurchase the position with proceeds from the prior sale.

 

[Spekulatius]

Reduced some positions MEGACPO, V, NNI, RTX, VNT in tax deferred accounts . Sold UNH at a loss (pre market when bad news came out). Bought some of it back later the same day. Raising some cash.

[Spekulatius]

Selling SIMO and CX as they rebounded nicely from the tariff fall.

[Saluki]

On 5/13/2025 at 7:31 PM, LC said:

So to the Coupang example (I did this with CPNG as well): Mar30-Apr4 I doubled my CPNG position when it was trading between 19-21. Now 31+ days later, the doubled position is trading at 26. If it was trading at 20, I would sell my higher-basis lots. But now I have no tax losses to harvest.

 

The same with DFIN - I doubled the position at 40$  per share...now it is at 55.

 

So these ones, I don't have any tax losses to harvest. But I prefer this way because now I have a bigger overall gain on the position.

 

If the stocks/market continued to decline (say CPNG from 19->15) your execution would be better: because you sold at 19 and can re-buy at 15.

 

I think options help here because you maintain the dry powder in case of a further decline, but also capture upside in case of a rebound. And if there is no volatility at all, you just execute Plan A: sell the high basis shares, capture the tax loss, and 30 days later execute the options to repurchase the position with proceeds from the prior sale.

 

 

The option thing is a good idea so you don't tie up capital.  I'll make a mental note. 

 

I'm not using margin now, but when I was I was overpaying (9% or so at Merrill and 12% at Schwab, which is criminal), so I reactivated my Robinhood account which has slightly lower margin than even Interactive Brokers, and have been moving money there a little at a time. So if I have a position that is flat at ML, I'll sell the ML shares, buy the RH shares (on margin) and just move the funds to my bank then to RH. I don't want to do a partial transfer because when I tried that RH tried to port over ALL my positions, and I called and cancelled it. 

 

I've been interviewing a lot lately and if I start a new job I may get less risk averse in my trading. And if so, lower margin rates are a good thing. And my guess is that with this administration, the market is going to be a bumpy ride for the next few years. (Walmart says they will raise prices from Tariff pressures by end of month, so consumers will start noticing the effects). 

[Jaygo]

I lightened up a a few things today I bought on Lib day. Sold some of the dirt cheap Aritzia, Ats Auto, Linemar, DOO, strathcona and Soma gold

 

Moving it into Mako, Mccoy, Velan, Greenfire and Aecon plus keeping a lil bit in cash

[Marco Van Basten]

Sold the UNH calls spreads that I bought yesterday.  The stock is up from $260 where I bought and I will take a 10% one day gain on a company that nobody can figure the earnings power of.  

[RichardGibbons]

9 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Sold the UNH calls spreads that I bought yesterday.  The stock is up from $260 where I bought and I will take a 10% one day gain on a company that nobody can figure the earnings power of.  

 

I wonder if this is actually a winning strategy--I think it depends a lot on what you do when the trade goes against you.

 

Like, if you rerun this scenario 1000 times, with outcomes in proportion to the probability of each scenario happening, is it a profitable trade to take the 10% gain in one day?

 

For example, if there were equal probability that it goes down or up, and you lose 100% in a few months if it goes down and gain 10% in a day if it goes up, then the strategy will clearly lose money. But that's a gross simplification of both the potential outcomes and the actual strategy. So, it's unclear to me whether the "take a quick gain" strategy wins based on the actual probability distribution and strategy.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

I wonder if this is actually a winning strategy--I think it depends a lot on what you do when the trade goes against you.

 

Like, if you rerun this scenario 1000 times, with outcomes in proportion to the probability of each scenario happening, is it a profitable trade to take the 10% gain in one day?

 

For example, if there were equal probability that it goes down or up, and you lose 100% in a few months if it goes down and gain 10% in a day if it goes up, then the strategy will clearly lose money. But that's a gross simplification of both the potential outcomes and the actual strategy. So, it's unclear to me whether the "take a quick gain" strategy wins based on the actual probability distribution and strategy.

I was bout to post the same thing, In this iffy situation, taking a small 10% win makes no sense, imo. You can easily lose 3xas much in a single day, given the situation. You need to set up yourself for 50%+ gains or limit you losses with a smart option strategy.

[Castanza]

It’s at 5 year lows and you have management buying solid amounts of shares. Why not just keep it clean and buy calls as far out as you can? 
 

I picked up a handful when this went sub $260 with a 500 strike for 2027…it’s cheap fundamentally and probably is enough time to get this sorted out. 

[Marco Van Basten]

8 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

I wonder if this is actually a winning strategy--I think it depends a lot on what you do when the trade goes against you.

 

Like, if you rerun this scenario 1000 times, with outcomes in proportion to the probability of each scenario happening, is it a profitable trade to take the 10% gain in one day?

 

For example, if there were equal probability that it goes down or up, and you lose 100% in a few months if it goes down and gain 10% in a day if it goes up, then the strategy will clearly lose money. But that's a gross simplification of both the potential outcomes and the actual strategy. So, it's unclear to me whether the "take a quick gain" strategy wins based on the actual probability distribution and strategy.

Thank you for the pushback.  You could be right, although the math is not correct.  These were June 2027 Leaps call spread, it would be more like 25 months.   Moreover, given that I paid 50 points for a 200 vs 320 June 2027 call spread, when the stock was $260, I would make money at maturity even if the stock was flat.  I generally don't buy options at 50% implied volatility. 

Normally I don't trade, and certainly not for a 10% gain in the stock price.  However, in this case, it is not clear to me what the ultimate profitability will be and the ultimate valuation.  If for argument's sake the profits go back to 2017 levels, then the stock is overpriced.  I find plenty of very attractive opportunities, where I am much more certain than in the case of UNH.  (Chubb and Sun communities - SUI being two examples.)   I bought them for a quick trade, expecting a quick bounce and spat them out.  

In general, I agree with you, I normally hold stocks for a long time, my typical holding period is five years plus, and I have held positions for decades.  I just thought that after the collapse on Thursday, we would see insider buying on Friday, the stock would rally on the news, and I could flip my shares for a quick gain.  

[Marco Van Basten]

5 hours ago, Castanza said:

It’s at 5 year lows and you have management buying solid amounts of shares. Why not just keep it clean and buy calls as far out as you can? 
 

I picked up a handful when this went sub $260 with a 500 strike for 2027…it’s cheap fundamentally and probably is enough time to get this sorted out. 

Calls are at a 50% implied vol, very hard to make money when you pay that.  What makes you think that the stock is cheap fundamentally?  In other words, what do you think of the sustained level of profitability and why?  Thank you.

I agree with you that normally insider buying is a fantastic signal, in this case though, I wonder whether the insiders are trying to "paint the tape."

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Calls are at a 50% implied vol, very hard to make money when you pay that.  What makes you think that the stock is cheap fundamentally?  In other words, what do you think of the sustained level of profitability and why?  Thank you.

I agree with you that normally insider buying is a fantastic signal, in this case though, I wonder whether the insiders are trying to "paint the tape."

At mid $200s the market is implying almost zero fcf growth…

 

DCF puts it around mid 400s 

[RichardGibbons]

2 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Thank you for the pushback.  You could be right, although the math is not correct.  These were June 2027 Leaps call spread, it would be more like 25 months.   Moreover, given that I paid 50 points for a 200 vs 320 June 2027 call spread, when the stock was $260, I would make money at maturity even if the stock was flat.  I generally don't buy options at 50% implied volatility.

 

Yeah, I missed the fact that they were LEAPs, and I think that might change the math, as it changes the probability of loss. Like, assuming no fraud, then the chance of 100% loss is pretty low, I think, which means a 10% gain might be fine.  Also, if you expected it to be a quick trade, and your downside was limited by that (i.e. you'd dump it if the options didn't do what you'd expect), then that could limit losses as well.

 

One of the trickiest things with options is figuring out if the strategy is a winner over time, and I'm not sure either way with this one, so thanks for sharing your insight on it.

[Marco Van Basten]

3 hours ago, Castanza said:

At mid $200s the market is implying almost zero fcf growth…

 

DCF puts it around mid 400s 

Where will the growth come from?  Also from what profitability level are you assuming zero growth?  Although like you, I often invert and say what is priced in?  Thank you.

[WayWardCloud]

Sold some of my vanguard all world equities index fund (VT) to go down from 111% leverage to 100% (peaked at 118% during the worse of tariffs). It's been a successful round trip and I wasn't as comfortable anymore even though I still see value. I'm planning to slowly sell more stocks and add back to bonds if we keep ripping and I wrote down the exact values (completely arbitrary) at which I would do the rebalancing to keep me from overthinking.

[WFF]

Sold SOC, only have some options left.  Overall ~50% return in about six months.  Pumping oil was the material event (it occurred) and issuing stock was a main catalyst for me get out.  I want them to pump, pay down debt and return cash, issuing more shares if they believe it is undervalued is dumb,  and issuing shares after announcing the material event just doesn’t induce trust.  

[LC]

A few years ago I bought into some local businesses, including a pizzeria/bar. We are finalizing the sale of that to the owner/operator. Not a homerun by any means, with the sale price + net dividends received along the way, will be about a 25-30% return or ~10-12% annual IRR. Not the worst but from a pure capital allocation perspective definitely inferior to the public markets.

 

The good (or bad) news is now I have a reinvestment problem on my hands.

[John Hjorth]

17 minutes ago, LC said:

A few years ago I bought into some local businesses, including a pizzeria/bar. We are finalizing the sale of that to the owner/operator. Not a homerun by any means, with the sale price + net dividends received along the way, will be about a 25-30% return or ~10-12% annual IRR. Not the worst but from a pure capital allocation perspective definitely inferior to the public markets.

 

The good (or bad) news is now I have a reinvestment problem on my hands.

 

@LC,

 

I still remember you telling about the start of this business venture of yours a few years ago here on CofB&F. 

 

If you now walk away from the business venture having earned at least some money, all while your role has been to be a successful catalyst for a back then potential business owner, who now becomes exactly that, and you also leave the business venture with some practical, on-the-rim basic business experience, that nobody can take away from you, that's not shabby at all; -it's actually awesome!