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willie2013

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Guest hellsten

Top 5 holdings ~50%:

AIG

BAC

SHLD

BIT:F

LUK

 

The good, the bad, the ugly:

BRK

SD

CHK

MBI

OSTK

GS

MUV2

BP

MSFT

MKL

HOTR

XCO

 

I'm diworsified at the moment… Waiting for the right moment to optimize taxes and raise some cash.

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MTG, EFN, PD, 18% leverage

+1 conv pref +1 new build in progress

 

We include the leverage as a portfolio weighting, as we use it as a negative asset to offset the impact of big (for us) holdings of very low cost shares. We periodically run the leverage up to buy in the new positions; & repay it via ongoing hedging.   

 

 

 

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Guest hellsten

Largest to smallest:

Cash

SRPT

FIATY

SHLD

 

SRPT looks like a ten bagger in less than one year. Can I ask what the story is behind this stock?

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BRK/B        25%

WFC            5%

BBT          1.5%

GE            1.5%

BAC              1%

short puts  79%

____________

total        113%

 

So I would be 13% on margin if put to on everything I am short. After today's expiration, that will come down to just over 1%.

 

 

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Largest to smallest:

Cash

SRPT

FIATY

SHLD

 

SRPT looks like a ten bagger in less than one year. Can I ask what the story is behind this stock?

 

Caution: I am a layman and this is my first biotech stock ever.  From what I can tell most biotechs are prime short candidates.  I found this while looking for shorts because I thought the market might be getting hot - go figure.  This could easily be an enormous "learning opportunity" for me.

 

Boiled down:

 

They have developed an "exon skipping" process to treat diseases.  They are known for the experimental eteperlsin, which is a treatment for the horrific Duchenne muscular dystrophy.  The disease is a death sentence; patients usually die before 30.  Patients (boys) have a malfunctioning exon 51, and this results in their inability to produce dystrophin, which is essential for muscle performance.  The drug partially restores the ability to produce dystrophin, resulting in a much milder form of muscular dystrophy (such as Becker's).

 

The drug is in experimental stages, but so far the results have been stupendous.  In this case the boys are not only stabilizing, but in some cases improving, which is unheard of with this disease.  Researchers have confirmed improved levels of dystrophin with the boys taking the drug.  Parents of treated children are posting encouraging testimonials on social media, and also meeting with the FDA to provide feedback.

 

The company is considering applying for Accelerated Approval (http://tinyurl.com/l794qo) with the FDA, which could happen any day.  There have been no serious side affects observed.

 

Bears contend that the sample size of the test group is too small, but drugs have been approved previously with similarly small sample sizes.

 

If eteperlsin gains approval, the company will have more good reason to apply the exon skipping process to other diseases.

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In no order, tracker positions and cash removed:

 

ANCPA ANACOMP INC IND NEW CL A

GAV:CH CARLO GAVAZZI HOLDING AG CHF15.00 (BR) B

9476:JP CHUOKEIZAI-SHA INC NPV

CDU:PT CONDURIL-ENGENHARIA SA EUR5

7591:JP EXCEL CO LTD NPV

FAVS         FIRST AVIATION SVCS INC CL A NEW

ALGEV:FR GEVELOT EUR35

GWOX GOODHEART WILLCOX INC

STAL:FR INSTALLUX SA EUR16

KRK:NZ KIRKALDIE & STAINS NPV

MA         MASTERCARD INC CL A

ALNEX:FR NEXEYA EUR0.50

6149:JP ODAWARA ENGINEERING CO NPV

PREC:FR PRECIA NPV

RBRG RANDALL BEARINGS INC

REOP REO PLASTICS CORP

SVIN         SCHEID VINEYARDS INC CL A

SHFK SCHUFF INTERNATIONAL INC

9932:JP SUGIMOTO & CO NPV

TTHG TITANIUM HLDGS GROUP INC

3331:JP ZAKKAYA BULLDOG CO LTD NPV

6947:JP ZUKEN INC NPV

BWLA BOWL AMER INC CL A

HNFSB HANOVER FOODS CORP CDT CL B

IVWIX IVA WORLDWIDE FUND CL I

MPAD MICROPAC INDUSTRIES INC

OPST OPT SCIENCES CORP COM

PDRX PD-RX PHARMACEUTICAL INC

RSKIA RISK GEORGE INDS INC CDT CL A

SODI         SOLITRON DEVICES INC COM PAR $0.01

SSY         SUNLINK HEALTH SYS INC

WEBK WELLESLEY BANCORP INC COM

WEIN WEST END IND BANCSHARES INC

FIRT         FIRST BANCTRUST CORP NEW COM

FRMO FRMO CORP COM NEW

KOGL KOPP GLASS INC

SPCO STEPHAN CO (FL)

53994158 AVALON CORRECTIONAL SVCS INC COM TENDERED FROM CUSIP 0534361

CNRD CONRAD INDUSTRIES INC

FSBW FS BANCORP INC COM

NSBC NORTH ST BANCORP

SVCTF SENVEST CAPITAL INC COM NPV ISIN #CA81731L1094 SEDOL #279629

SFBC         SOUND FINL BANCORP INC COM

UCBA UNITED CMNTY BANCORP IND COM

BOTJ         BANK OF THE JAMES FINL GRP INC

CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP INC

PBCP         POLONIA BANCORP INC MD

WBB         WESTBURY BANCORP INC

WVFC WVS FINANCIAL CORP

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damn!

 

In no order, tracker positions and cash removed:

 

ANCPA ANACOMP INC IND NEW CL A

GAV:CH CARLO GAVAZZI HOLDING AG CHF15.00 (BR) B

9476:JP CHUOKEIZAI-SHA INC NPV

CDU:PT CONDURIL-ENGENHARIA SA EUR5

7591:JP EXCEL CO LTD NPV

FAVS         FIRST AVIATION SVCS INC CL A NEW

ALGEV:FR GEVELOT EUR35

GWOX GOODHEART WILLCOX INC

STAL:FR INSTALLUX SA EUR16

KRK:NZ KIRKALDIE & STAINS NPV

MA         MASTERCARD INC CL A

ALNEX:FR NEXEYA EUR0.50

6149:JP ODAWARA ENGINEERING CO NPV

PREC:FR PRECIA NPV

RBRG RANDALL BEARINGS INC

REOP REO PLASTICS CORP

SVIN         SCHEID VINEYARDS INC CL A

SHFK SCHUFF INTERNATIONAL INC

9932:JP SUGIMOTO & CO NPV

TTHG TITANIUM HLDGS GROUP INC

3331:JP ZAKKAYA BULLDOG CO LTD NPV

6947:JP ZUKEN INC NPV

BWLA BOWL AMER INC CL A

HNFSB HANOVER FOODS CORP CDT CL B

IVWIX IVA WORLDWIDE FUND CL I

MPAD MICROPAC INDUSTRIES INC

OPST OPT SCIENCES CORP COM

PDRX PD-RX PHARMACEUTICAL INC

RSKIA RISK GEORGE INDS INC CDT CL A

SODI         SOLITRON DEVICES INC COM PAR $0.01

SSY         SUNLINK HEALTH SYS INC

WEBK WELLESLEY BANCORP INC COM

WEIN WEST END IND BANCSHARES INC

FIRT         FIRST BANCTRUST CORP NEW COM

FRMO FRMO CORP COM NEW

KOGL KOPP GLASS INC

SPCO STEPHAN CO (FL)

53994158 AVALON CORRECTIONAL SVCS INC COM TENDERED FROM CUSIP 0534361

CNRD CONRAD INDUSTRIES INC

FSBW FS BANCORP INC COM

NSBC NORTH ST BANCORP

SVCTF SENVEST CAPITAL INC COM NPV ISIN #CA81731L1094 SEDOL #279629

SFBC         SOUND FINL BANCORP INC COM

UCBA UNITED CMNTY BANCORP IND COM

BOTJ         BANK OF THE JAMES FINL GRP INC

CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP INC

PBCP         POLONIA BANCORP INC MD

WBB         WESTBURY BANCORP INC

WVFC WVS FINANCIAL CORP

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Ha!  If there were another 50 companies that met my criteria I'd buy them too.  It's becoming more of a capital problem than an idea problem.

 

damn!

 

In no order, tracker positions and cash removed:

 

ANCPA ANACOMP INC IND NEW CL A

GAV:CH CARLO GAVAZZI HOLDING AG CHF15.00 (BR) B

9476:JP CHUOKEIZAI-SHA INC NPV

CDU:PT CONDURIL-ENGENHARIA SA EUR5

7591:JP EXCEL CO LTD NPV

FAVS         FIRST AVIATION SVCS INC CL A NEW

ALGEV:FR GEVELOT EUR35

GWOX GOODHEART WILLCOX INC

STAL:FR INSTALLUX SA EUR16

KRK:NZ KIRKALDIE & STAINS NPV

MA         MASTERCARD INC CL A

ALNEX:FR NEXEYA EUR0.50

6149:JP ODAWARA ENGINEERING CO NPV

PREC:FR PRECIA NPV

RBRG RANDALL BEARINGS INC

REOP REO PLASTICS CORP

SVIN         SCHEID VINEYARDS INC CL A

SHFK SCHUFF INTERNATIONAL INC

9932:JP SUGIMOTO & CO NPV

TTHG TITANIUM HLDGS GROUP INC

3331:JP ZAKKAYA BULLDOG CO LTD NPV

6947:JP ZUKEN INC NPV

BWLA BOWL AMER INC CL A

HNFSB HANOVER FOODS CORP CDT CL B

IVWIX IVA WORLDWIDE FUND CL I

MPAD MICROPAC INDUSTRIES INC

OPST OPT SCIENCES CORP COM

PDRX PD-RX PHARMACEUTICAL INC

RSKIA RISK GEORGE INDS INC CDT CL A

SODI         SOLITRON DEVICES INC COM PAR $0.01

SSY         SUNLINK HEALTH SYS INC

WEBK WELLESLEY BANCORP INC COM

WEIN WEST END IND BANCSHARES INC

FIRT         FIRST BANCTRUST CORP NEW COM

FRMO FRMO CORP COM NEW

KOGL KOPP GLASS INC

SPCO STEPHAN CO (FL)

53994158 AVALON CORRECTIONAL SVCS INC COM TENDERED FROM CUSIP 0534361

CNRD CONRAD INDUSTRIES INC

FSBW FS BANCORP INC COM

NSBC NORTH ST BANCORP

SVCTF SENVEST CAPITAL INC COM NPV ISIN #CA81731L1094 SEDOL #279629

SFBC         SOUND FINL BANCORP INC COM

UCBA UNITED CMNTY BANCORP IND COM

BOTJ         BANK OF THE JAMES FINL GRP INC

CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP INC

PBCP         POLONIA BANCORP INC MD

WBB         WESTBURY BANCORP INC

WVFC WVS FINANCIAL CORP

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man, i need to look harder and broaden my circle

 

 

Ha!  If there were another 50 companies that met my criteria I'd buy them too.  It's becoming more of a capital problem than an idea problem.

 

damn!

 

In no order, tracker positions and cash removed:

 

ANCPA ANACOMP INC IND NEW CL A

GAV:CH CARLO GAVAZZI HOLDING AG CHF15.00 (BR) B

9476:JP CHUOKEIZAI-SHA INC NPV

CDU:PT CONDURIL-ENGENHARIA SA EUR5

7591:JP EXCEL CO LTD NPV

FAVS         FIRST AVIATION SVCS INC CL A NEW

ALGEV:FR GEVELOT EUR35

GWOX GOODHEART WILLCOX INC

STAL:FR INSTALLUX SA EUR16

KRK:NZ KIRKALDIE & STAINS NPV

MA         MASTERCARD INC CL A

ALNEX:FR NEXEYA EUR0.50

6149:JP ODAWARA ENGINEERING CO NPV

PREC:FR PRECIA NPV

RBRG RANDALL BEARINGS INC

REOP REO PLASTICS CORP

SVIN         SCHEID VINEYARDS INC CL A

SHFK SCHUFF INTERNATIONAL INC

9932:JP SUGIMOTO & CO NPV

TTHG TITANIUM HLDGS GROUP INC

3331:JP ZAKKAYA BULLDOG CO LTD NPV

6947:JP ZUKEN INC NPV

BWLA BOWL AMER INC CL A

HNFSB HANOVER FOODS CORP CDT CL B

IVWIX IVA WORLDWIDE FUND CL I

MPAD MICROPAC INDUSTRIES INC

OPST OPT SCIENCES CORP COM

PDRX PD-RX PHARMACEUTICAL INC

RSKIA RISK GEORGE INDS INC CDT CL A

SODI         SOLITRON DEVICES INC COM PAR $0.01

SSY         SUNLINK HEALTH SYS INC

WEBK WELLESLEY BANCORP INC COM

WEIN WEST END IND BANCSHARES INC

FIRT         FIRST BANCTRUST CORP NEW COM

FRMO FRMO CORP COM NEW

KOGL KOPP GLASS INC

SPCO STEPHAN CO (FL)

53994158 AVALON CORRECTIONAL SVCS INC COM TENDERED FROM CUSIP 0534361

CNRD CONRAD INDUSTRIES INC

FSBW FS BANCORP INC COM

NSBC NORTH ST BANCORP

SVCTF SENVEST CAPITAL INC COM NPV ISIN #CA81731L1094 SEDOL #279629

SFBC         SOUND FINL BANCORP INC COM

UCBA UNITED CMNTY BANCORP IND COM

BOTJ         BANK OF THE JAMES FINL GRP INC

CZWI CITIZENS COMMUNITY BANCORP INC

PBCP         POLONIA BANCORP INC MD

WBB         WESTBURY BANCORP INC

WVFC WVS FINANCIAL CORP

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QID        8%

Is this a leveraged ETF?  They are huge ripoffs and sell out their investors.  Short them (in *very* small amounts or not at all), don't go long them.

 

Buffett stopped hedging a long time ago.  I don't think that it's worthwhile.

 

Agree.  Hedging with leveraged ETFs takes on "decay/compounding" losses, AND buying them in an attempt to make short term macro calls =  hubris.  The chart just looks so darn overbought and Japan is unraveling though! Thanks.

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I manage a small portfolio for work. Also, have a few PA things, but they are much smaller holdings (I am not listing redundant securities)

 

AIG 12.29% <-- no need for comments

GY 9.5%  <-- this is what I am most excited about... assuming Rocketdyne acquisition closes

OAK 8.54% <-- have owned from the beginning... added more recently when it sold off with rest of income names

VOD 8.06% <-- have owned for years... price goes nowhere, but income has been great and writing calls against on VZ deal spikes is nice

MBI 6.61% <-- no need for comment

DVA 5.97% <-- no need for comment

EXC 5.94% <-- this is the bain of my existence... really need natural gas prices to continue march higher

BP 5.7% <-- no need for comment... this has also been a frustrating stock to hold

MET 5.27% <-- I like most of the insurance plays out there from a rate aspect

GM+B 5.01%  <-- mandatory prefs

AGCO 4.94% <-- very cyclical... margins story... great growth as they have mkt share in EM where tractors are underutilized... current FCF is understated

SD 4.77% <-- no need for comments other than this one scares me a little

AIQ 4.02% <-- thanks Packer

WFC 3.07% <-- Brooklyn investor's article was the icing on the cake that got me to buy

NBHC 2.55% <-- this is boring and just a stock... very well capitalized, but unclear if there is ever a path to make money on it

ALSK 1.57% <-- another packer idea... just bought it yesterday

Other: small stuff from spinnoffs and research ideas (I am one of the lazy people who buy tiny positions if early research is compelling)

 

Stuff I am considering / or in my  PA

 

RJET

INFU

PRXI -  the selloff in the last two weeks has caught my eye

RHP - I hate REITS, but this one is better than most and misunderstood. It has sold off a lot recently

MKL

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Sorry... my "I have held this from the beginning comment sounded arrogant."

 

To compensate for such an annoying comment I will add that I am down 20.55% (price basis) on my EXC holding. I also owned HPQ for a decent portion of last year and some of this year (exited at a mid-teen loss)

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you're holding that stuff on margin? could you clarify how you have your portfolio set up?

 

Wellmont,  Yes, the two leveraged ETFs, SH and QID, are held with the other stocks within a portfolio that has large margin currently (35%).  SH and QID, new positions, are a "trade" (trying to time the macro is, well stupid, but chart looks overbought, Japan, QE, etc. etc.)  It would make more sense to sell stocks to become 75% long/25% cash than to lever up to 82% equities/18% SH and QID and be about 75% long after you account for the 2X QID. Sorry in advance, I may not be communicating well here. -willie

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