SI

I am with JRM on CenturyLink. If the 5.2-5.3x ebitda multiple holds, you get $2/share this year if the company continues deleveraging. With $1 in dividends that is a 23% return. With Brookfield taking out its most closely traded public comp(though mostly a consumer biz) at CBB and Zayo on the way out the door to private equity as the closest the enterprise peer - there is the chance for multiple expansion which i would expect in 2021 as they hit their target leverage. At that point i think the company again trades on free cash flow yield which at $3/share and a 10% fcf yield(long term telco multiple is 10x earnings so it isn’t quite apples to apples) implies that if we get multiple expansion it could be explosive. Lastly, earlier this week the company vastly improved their governance. To me this was the biggest risk. A bit more color: -Harvey, the chair, was a bigger issue than Glen, the former ceo, but a break in continuity was needed. -It is more than just those two things as it puts the board on notice it is bloated in number. -Those with a quarter century of board membership now see the door. -It lowers the risk that Jeff Storey, the ceo, would leave out of frustration with this legacy CTL board. It also ensures Jeff's successor is a capitalist from LVLT. -While the exit door may not be today for the rest of them, it also shows them who is in charge until the board refresh is complete. -It allows the center of gravity to drift out of Louisiana and the RLEC mindset. -It likely speeds the pace of decision making. -It shows potential infrastructure buyers that this board is now open for business as the new chair was the previous nominee of the 13D filer and the new board member also comes from the 13D filer, Southeastern.

Waste Management

UBS lowered numbers yesterday, Morgan Stanley the day before.

Wasn't ducking the question, I just wanted to wait until it was public but it was as of this afternoon, the mutual fund is: HTAYX.

That was really helpful Tim, thank you!

Thanks Parsad but what if you are delinked on the account and it is not in your control in the case of a termination or someone getting sick. I was told you could file an amended 13G claiming as long as you could claim you did not have disposition authority. Any idea?

Looking for some of the expertise of this board. I have been offered a board seat on a corporate we have an ownership interest in. By we I mean: personally, for separately managed accounts and in our small mutual fund. I understand I would only be able to trade during the window and could not trade on material non-public but what if a SMA account client gets sick. We recently had a client come down with brain cancer and liquidate. Would this AUM setup prevent me from taking the seat? Any other thoughts on your opinion of cost/benefit would be appreciated. I obviously think the company is massively undervalued and I could have an impact.

PICO

I enjoy Michael Maboussin, Bill Miller & a former colleague who runs PAA Research(please act accordingly).

It is the activist filing Friday after the close that is sustaining this move.

This looks more interesting this week than when they did the deal So what has gone on in the stock that has you looking: (1) We are seeing natural resource sellers(maybe even margin calls?!?) (2) index sellers as weight was reduced in the Russell within the past month (3) 3 activists have filed(great write-up of the asset by mutual fund river road from late March in a link here: http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/04/pico-holdings-activism/) (4) and what I have termed the small cap asset-value funeral which I think has unearthed a decent price oppty as their shareholders are getting redeemed which I juxtapose with positive fundamentals: (1) After a recent divestiture, there is no cash burn other than small corporate staff and no debt. (2) Builder Mkts intact, where I think we get a transaction as comps trade 1.15x(small caps) and 1.8x BV(large caps). Its homebuilder is 57% controlled by Pico so it has a massive illiquidity discount. (3) Water Mkts that I think have the potential for dynamic upside (4) With water in mkts where development outlook is firm a. The scale daunting with AMZN, Drowns, Tesla, 15 Japanese Battery developers, Apple, Google, etc (5) Mgmt under pressure increases likelihood of water / builder transaction (6) An expensive mkt....

Here is one I have started legging into, PICO holdings: Pico(written up in the past) was formerly Physicians Insurance Company of Ohio which is to suggest that Pico started life the same way Berkshire(basically)/Markel/Fairfax did by using an insurance company as the foundation of an investment manager. Pico has used its premiums to turn deeper into liquid assets, namely water. Pico controls Vidler Water which owns interests in 45,000 acre-feet of water rights mostly in the Southwest(ex-California). If the Southwest drought can create water scarcity, what drives Pico’s shares is demand that derives from housing, industrialization and urbanization. With more job creation, the sand states should resume their ever increasing population and with it, the price of water assets should return to elevated levels. The slowdown of development in Arizona and especially Nevada has kept water prices in check. As available jobs and later people begun filling back into the sand states, we expect water rights to increase in value. One such driver is the economic development in northwest Nevada which is near an important Vidler water assets. It is worth mentioning that Pico also has one other investment in a homebuilder, UCP(asset value in Monterrey, CA)though the majority of their value stems from their water portfolio. So what has gone on in the stock that has you looking: (1) We are seeing natural resource sellers(maybe even margin calls?!?) (2) index sellers as weight was reduced in the Russell within the past month (3) 3 activists have filed(great write-up of the asset by mutual fund river road from late March in a link here: http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/04/pico-holdings-activism/) (4) and what I have termed the small cap asset value funeral which I think has unearthed a decent price oppty as their shareholders are getting redeemed which I juxtapose with positive fundamentals: (1) After a recent divestiture, there is no cash burn other than small corporate staff and no debt. (2) Builder Mkts intact, where I think we get a transaction as comps trade 1.15x(small caps) and 1.8x BV(large caps). Its homebuilder is 57% controlled by Pico so it has a massive illiquidity discount. (3) Water Mkts that I think have the potential for dynamic upside (4) With water in mkts where development outlook is firm a. The scale daunting with AMZN, Drowns, Tesla, 15 Japanese Battery developers, Apple, Google, etc (5) Mgmt under pressure increases likelihood of water / builder transaction (6) An expensive mkt.... Pico is specifically an asset based player in the water allocation of construction projects with leverage to water, its storage and transportation. I believe the company is setting out to increase the corporate exposure to this valued expertise in the Southwest amidst water scarcity and believe at a 27% discount to its book value – I think investment potential is attractive.

Good to see the $85mn of debt gone. Watching them lose another $11mn last quarter in Northstar/Canola and then seeing them need the debt waiver 2 weeks ago it seemed that a take-under was 'certain'; the bear case of not being able to shut it down, further equity contributions potentially being required, with no end insight was tortuous for the long struggling longs - just look at that shareholder list which looks like a funeral small cap value(and it felt that way at the annual meeting earlier this week) in active mgmt. With all that said as backdrop, I think the mkt should respond fairly positively to tonight's announcement. With the balance sheet cleaned up post this transaction, a small buyback likely to ensue, a stock with a pro-forma book value over $17 and mkt quotation under $14, no debt(UCP has debt at the subsidiary level against its assets), a simpler story with the upped focus on just 2 related and geographically adjacent assets - it seems like equity investors may finally get a reprieve. Mgmt now has the oppty to turn their attention to solving for mr. mkt in UCP before the Vidler asset story starts to see some sales yardsticks.

+1 for the rights offering

A few months ago I stumbled on a cef I thought was interesting, GTU. I have had some interesting in speculating in gold near $1,000. By buying a closed end fund that invests only in physical gold, via a vault in one of Canada’s largest Banks, Imperial Bank of Canada, at the 11.5% discount I purchased it in the 1st week in November – it was synthetic means of getting quite close at its then $1,145/oz spot gold price.

I have argued LYV on this board but I don't see what stops them even today. Live Nation - the world is beset with corporations trying to find ways to advertise to a real time and targeted audience in ways that cannot be ignored(check the silicon valley p/s or the $2bn sale of the LA Clippers) - not that sports isn't the end all be all for this type of advertisement but why not assume people will remain interested in sharing one of the oldest forms of entertainment and go to listen to live music the way that was done with Woodstock, the Beatles, Michael Jackson, Madonna, Bruce Springsteen, U2, Austin City Limits or Jay-Z. The business: Live Nation promotes more artists than the all other promoters combined. Their mkt share in ticketing is 80%+ and we have seen them starting to gain real mkt share in secondary ticketing. Their concert business is unmatched and now expanding globally at a rapid clip(this business is one of the easiest to export I can think of and getting easier). The price: Macquarie has them doing $1.90 in FCF next year or an 8.7% FCF yield. The oppty: The FCF is growing at a nice clip, they have just recently grown into their balance sheet so are finally in position to allocate meaningful capital which is basically run by Liberty. I expect them to mop up a few of the 2 dozen meaningful global ticketing companies along with other concert companies(recent talks have them trying to acquire 51% stakes in Austin City Limits & Lollapolloza) all in the name of more concert goers and more shows which propel that high margin and real time advertisement business.

FTD & 1-800-Flowers

I'd add Chou, Sequoia and Longleaf to that list.

anyone tried back?

Klarman returned money in 2010.

Yes mortgage interest is tax deductible but remember in the 401k loan you just pay yourself the interest. At 4.3% that fidelity is offering for the rate you pay yourself back at, to me the 401k loan idea makes sense for many applications.

No problem. We have brokers offering us trading today at 50 mills so we know the cost of trading is low if someone can make a business at that rate but you wonder what Robinhood's business model will ultimately be and how the Schwab and its ilk respond. Here is a bit of info from their FAQ portion of their site. How is Robinhood able to offer commission-free trading while others charge $10/trade? Over the last decade, technology has enabled building the most efficient businesses in history. Building an automated, electronic brokerage from the ground up allows Robinhood to eliminate the costly touchpoints where other brokerages require human intervention or paper receipts. Rather than relying on primetime advertisements and costly brick-and-mortar storefronts, Robinhood maintains a lean bottom-line, allowing it to attract and retain customers far more cheaply. How does Robinhood make money? Robinhood will offer margin trading as well as API access. We also plan to offer premium services for active investors in the future. Robinhood is venture-funded by Google, Andreessen Horowitz and many others, which affords us the freedom to focus on building a wonderful brokerage experience rather than short-term profits.

These Google backed brokerage guys seem interesting....have not been able to get on the site yet. Some Stanford guys backed by Andreessen-Horowitz and Google Ventures are offering $0 commission equity trades. Will be an interesting experiment. You can reserve your spot in line at https://www.robinhood.io/?ref=8hAJcs FD: If you sign up, my spot in line moves up.

saw this quote which I thought this thread would appreciate. When a man is pushed, tormented, defeated, he has a chance to learn something; he has been put on his wits...he has gained facts, learned his ignorance, is cured of the insanity of conceit, has got moderation and real skill. Ralph Waldo Emerson

I would agree with fareastwarriors on his mkt forecast being applicable to my area as well.