What are you buying today?

[WayWardCloud]

55 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

I have always wanted to own ADBE. Will buy some this week. Thanks.

Happy to have put it on your radar! Looks like you're going to get a better entry point that I, too. I bought at $428. Hoping to get more at $380.

Edited Sunday at 10:07 PM by WayWardCloud

[aws]

Been nibbling at

 

JACK 

JOE

NAVI

PROSY 

STNE

VALE 

[elevensecsrt4]

On 12/30/2024 at 10:41 AM, Gregmal said:

Starter in AN

I too am looking at this hard again....I have been able to get some @165 ish and hoping it gets there soon...in 2024 Management seems to like it at 160...care to share your quick thoughts on the starter position.  

[kab60]

On 1/8/2025 at 11:56 PM, WayWardCloud said:

Should have mentioned forward PE, my bad!

I find a 2025 GAAP PE of 26 and non-GAAP of 20.5.

If you compare to previous years it really is much cheaper than it used to be except for the brief September 2022 dip which was a great time to buy.

 

 

FWIW, which is very little, my friend works at Adobe (he's basically a glorified salesman) and says Figma is eating their lunch. I don't understand how or why, but apparently their products are designed in a way that makes end-to-end-production much easier. Something which Adobe can't just easily change.

[mistakenpoint]

On 12/17/2024 at 12:02 PM, mistakenpoint said:

Bought aapl puts

Just closed this now. I generally find puts around 1.5 months out are generally very underpriced for things such as BRK.B, AAPL, COST, when their relative strength is above the high 70's. These opportunities come around a couple times a year.

Bought FRPH and Fairfax with proceeds. 

[Gregmal]

DEO, STZ, TAP.

 

MGPI finally off the short list and maybe looking interesting as a long.

[sleepydragon]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

DEO, STZ, TAP.

 

MGPI finally off the short list and maybe looking interesting as a long.

no BF?

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

no BF?

You could do that too but I’d probably be inclined to take a shot on MGPI if we re playing bourbon which is big for BF

[longlake95]

A little FFH 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Some Hershey. It's a 100 year old Buffett-like high ROIC business getting squeezed by raw input costs. Customers' stomachs are also being squeezed by GLP. Mondelez is a ready buyer who has approached them twice.  How happy can the Hershey Foundation be with zero returns over the last 5 years? The CEO is retiring this year.  Nice tuck in for Berkshire. Even though you have to squint to see growth at the moment, you could also make this large because of sheer quality. Like HHC pre-Ackman bid, no catalyst, just quality left for dead. 

 

Edited Monday at 07:25 PM by Cod Liver Oil

[Seoshin]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

DEO, STZ, TAP.

 

MGPI finally off the short list and maybe looking interesting as a long.

What made you finally long on this name, greg? Valuation-wise perhaps?

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, Seoshin said:

What made you finally long on this name, greg? Valuation-wise perhaps?

Deo I’ve owned for a bit already and both TAP and STZ just seem like low hurdles that are better than bonds. MGPI has been a no brainer short since $110 but now seems fairly attractive given the portfolio, inventory, and credibility in the bourbon space. It’s got hair, but can easily see one of these undisciplined large caps throwing a couple billion at it. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Some Hershey. It's a 100 year old Buffett-like high ROIC business getting squeezed by raw input costs. Customers' stomachs are also being squeezed by GLP. Mondelez is a ready buyer who has approached them twice.  How happy can the Hershey Foundation be with zero returns over the last 5 years? The CEO is retiring this year.  Nice tuck in for Berkshire. Even though you have to squint to see growth at the moment, you could also make this large because of sheer quality. Like HHC pre-Ackman bid, no catalyst, just quality left for dead. 

 

If Paramount is any guide, the foundation can get $250 in a buyout and minority non voting shares $125. Seriously after the Paramount precedent, why wouldn’t the foundation squeeze as hard as they can for premium at the cost of minors shareholders? They got the carte Blanche now to do so.

Edited Monday at 11:16 PM by Spekulatius

[WayWardCloud]

16 hours ago, kab60 said:

FWIW, which is very little, my friend works at Adobe (he's basically a glorified salesman) and says Figma is eating their lunch. I don't understand how or why, but apparently their products are designed in a way that makes end-to-end-production much easier. Something which Adobe can't just easily change.

 

Thanks Kab60 this is interesting!

 

Figma is a tool for quickly designing the looks of an app or website (=UX/UI) before committing to the final version and asking a programmer to actually code the thing. Adobe's equivalent software was called "XD" but Figma being a cloud-based app it was usable straight from your browser and had a better real-time collaborative quality to it which made XD lose that battle. Adobe then attempted to buy Figma instead but the EU and UK regulators blocked the merger so they discontinued XD all together and moved on. The other main competing app for web design was called "Sketch" (not sure from what company made it) and they also closed down. So yes Figma came out of nowhere a few years ago and took over most of the UX/UI industry.

 

The core of Adobe software suite is aimed at

1/photo editing : Photoshop, LightRoom

2/Video Editing : Premiere, After Effects, Audition

3/PDF editing : Acrobat (their original product)

4/Physical prints (books, magazines, billboards): Illustrator

5/Web design: XD (still exists but they stopped updating it), InDesign (for buttons and logos)

 

So there is definitely an overlap on 5/ but that's only one of their many offerings. Maybe your friend specializes in selling web design tools only, do you know? Adobe doesn't break down which software is responsible for what percentage of their revenue (and most clients buy the whole suite anyway) but they have kept growing their revenue every single year while Figma took over UI/UX so it can't be that big of a slice of their portfolio. For perspective, Figma does 0.6B in revenue and Adobe 21B.

Edited 23 hours ago by WayWardCloud

[kab60]

4 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

 

Thanks Kab60 this is interesting!

 

Figma is a tool for quickly designing the looks of an app or website (=UX/UI) before committing to the final version and asking a programmer to actually code the thing. Adobe's equivalent software was called "XD" but Figma being a cloud-based app it was usable straight from your browser and had a better real-time collaborative quality to it which made XD lose that battle. Adobe then attempted to buy Figma instead but the EU and UK regulators blocked the merger so they discontinued XD all together and moved on. The other main competing app for web design was called "Sketch" (not sure from what company made it) and they also closed down. So yes Figma came out of nowhere a few years ago and took over most of the UX/UI industry.

 

The core of Adobe software suite is aimed at

1/photo editing : Photoshop, LightRoom

2/Video Editing : Premiere, After Effects, Audition

3/PDF editing : Acrobat (their original product)

4/Physical prints (books, magazines, billboards): Illustrator

5/Web design: XD (still exists but they stopped updating it), InDesign (for buttons and logos)

 

So there is definitely an overlap on 5/ but that's only one of their many offerings. Maybe your friend specializes in selling web design tools only, do you know? Adobe doesn't break down which software is responsible for what percentage of their revenue (and most clients buy the whole suite anyway) but they have kept growing their revenue every single year while Figma took over UI/UX so it can't be that big of a slice of their portfolio. For perspective, Figma does 0.6B in revenue and Adobe 21B.

I'm honestly not sure. He used to work at both Google and Salesforce before - I think he's able to sell anything. Insiders often miss the forest for the tree though, sounds like you have a better handle on the situation.

[thepupil]

in my parents IRA / bond allocation, today I bought the most recently issued 30 yr TIP maturing in February 2054 for $89 / 2.62% real. The tip will pay a 2.125% coupon on a principal which grows by inflation.

 

this is the highest real yield offered by long term TIPs since 2008. Should real yields continue to go up, I will sell more intermediate nominals (bond index) and go ham on long term tips. 

 

 

 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, thepupil said:

in my parents IRA / bond allocation, today I bought the most recently issued 30 yr TIP maturing in February 2054 for $89 / 2.62% real. The tip will pay a 2.125% coupon on a principal which grows by inflation.

 

this is the highest real yield offered by long term TIPs since 2008. Should real yields continue to go up, I will sell more intermediate nominals (bond index) and go ham on long term tips. 

 

 

 

Are you sure? The lowest trade bloomberg showed was 89+24/32 at 13:09 pm

 

[thepupil]

89.95, should have just said 90, sorry, it is a 2.62% real yield, which is the highest since '08

 

[Dinar]

20 minutes ago, thepupil said:

89.95, should have just said 90, sorry, it is a 2.62% real yield, which is the highest since '08

 

I remember buying them at 4% in the 1990s when they came out and Shiller was plugging them.  Too bad I did not hold them till 2008-2009....  In retirement accounts, 2.62% is very attractive

[Ulti]

4 hours ago, thepupil said:

in my parents IRA / bond allocation, today I bought the most recently issued 30 yr TIP maturing in February 2054 for $89 / 2.62% real. The tip will pay a 2.125% coupon on a principal which grows by inflation.

 

this is the highest real yield offered by long term TIPs since 2008. Should real yields continue to go up, I will sell more intermediate nominals (bond index) and go ham on long term tips. 

 

 

 

a different point of view in long term tips

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-real-threat-of-fake-numbers

[thepupil]

41 minutes ago, Ulti said:

a different point of view in long term tips

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-real-threat-of-fake-numbers

TIPS are indeed subject to whatever the government says inflation is.
 

No asset is perfect or without risk.