What are you buying today?

[John Hjorth]

17 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Maybe so. I’m kind of frustrated as nothing of high quality is even really close to cheap yet. 

 

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Sure there is. Its just when we take 50 different fabricated adjustments and then claim "in a recession" XYZ will happen...sure, nothing "looks cheap". In the real world though theres plenty. 

 

This is actually an interesting exchange between @Eldad and Greg [ @Gregmal ] with regard to actual timing related to reporting.

 

Will we see 2024H1 reportings not yet done and not still due by now, that at arrival at a later date than today will seem to have been through a 'last and late spin' to in whatever way to cover and / or include events after the balance sheet date?

[tnathan]

HIFS - big position. Can't think of another bank who needs rates to go down more and the valuation is very fair for a bank that will grow TBVPS quickly as rates go down.

[Gregmal]

23 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

This is actually an interesting exchange between @Eldad and Greg [ @Gregmal ] with regard to actual timing related to reporting.

 

Will we see 2024H1 reportings not yet done and not still due by now, that at arrival at a later date than today will seem to have been through a 'last and late spin' to in whatever way to cover and / or include events after the balance sheet date?

Its just a regularly trite market commentary I hear and have heard forever. 

 

Nothing is cheap. 

 

Ok BF or Diego is 15x...

 

Yea but no growth. 

 

Ok well you said high quality, not growth, He's a solid growth Co at 25-30x

 

Oh but 25-30x is "expensive"....

 

Ok well here's one at 20x..

 

Oh its got debt....

 

And even if all that passes, you'll get the "and we're headed for a recession and profits will get cut by xyz%"...

 

 

Most people just nitpick and want the perfect investment for way less than they normally are available for and lament not being able to get them when they've never under normal circumstances been able to get them for those multiples. Nintendo is as high quality as it gets....Fairfax and BRK are both superbly positioned. I could go on and on, but theres always a catch or an issue. I just like to buy quality stuff at reasonable prices and I havent even been trying to look for investments the last few years and had no problem finding stuff. 

[Cor]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

VIX over 35 is a slam dunk buy signal. Especially when the opportunity is created by some Twitter mouth breathers who are showcasing that theyre the only people on WS who are actually stuck in the office in early August. 

 

Ive never even come close to losing money shorting 10% OTM near-mid duration puts on blue chips with the VIX at those levels. 

Greg can you please clarify this to a newbie? If you take LLY today for example, are you suggesting selling a put at 710 strike dated say Nov24? How soon after do you typically close this type of trade? 

[Eldad]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Its just a regularly trite market commentary I hear and have heard forever. 

 

Nothing is cheap. 

 

Ok BF or Diego is 15x...

 

Yea but no growth. 

 

Ok well you said high quality, not growth, He's a solid growth Co at 25-30x

 

Oh but 25-30x is "expensive"....

 

Ok well here's one at 20x..

 

Oh its got debt....

 

And even if all that passes, you'll get the "and we're headed for a recession and profits will get cut by xyz%"...

 

 

Most people just nitpick and want the perfect investment for way less than they normally are available for and lament not being able to get them when they've never under normal circumstances been able to get them for those multiples. Nintendo is as high quality as it gets....Fairfax and BRK are both superbly positioned. I could go on and on, but theres always a catch or an issue. I just like to buy quality stuff at reasonable prices and I havent even been trying to look for investments the last few years and had no problem finding stuff. 

I am not that picky but I would at least like to pay a multiple below the average of the last few years on high quality with consistent growth before I jump for joy that the market sold off slightly. It’s just not there on what I want to buy. I don’t want Nintendo, DEO, BF, BRK for various reasons, but they are high quality. 

[rkbabang]

5 minutes ago, Eldad said:

I would at least like to pay a multiple below the average of the last few years on high quality with consistent growth

 

 

Yeah, you and everyone else.  While your waiting for the perfect stock at the perfect price, many people will just buy high quality companies at fair to just OK prices and make out well.  The best long term performing stocks never look cheap.

 

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, Cor said:

Greg can you please clarify this to a newbie? If you take LLY today for example, are you suggesting selling a put at 710 strike dated say Nov24? How soon after do you typically close this type of trade? 

It’s highly specific to individual names because of fundamental reasons but you monitor the trade based on VIX levels. Something that’s “insert discretion” reasonable valued, giving you a 35-50 VIX type premium on 10-20% OTM puts with less than 6 months duration should make money if nothing happens, or even with modest future declines, simply once VIX settles to more normalized levels. Ie like 20

[Eldad]

5 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

Yeah, you and everyone else.  While your waiting for the perfect stock at the perfect price, many people will just buy high quality companies at fair to just OK prices and make out well.  The best long term performing stocks never look cheap.

 

I disagree. I usually get at least once a year. By the time that happens all lot of “just pay a fair price” crowd is out of cash or scared to buy. 

[rkbabang]

1 minute ago, Eldad said:

I disagree. I usually get at least once a year. By the time that happens all lot of “just pay a fair price” crowd is out of cash or scared to buy. 

 

 

Fair enough.  If you are getting an opportunity for each stock you are wanting to buy at least once per year then you aren't looking for something to be unrealistically cheap. 

[Gregmal]

There is also the fact that most people aren’t long term enough, or mentally capable enough to realize 25-30x with a growth runway isn’t expensive, and then even those that might be, are terrified of “what might happen” NTM or whatever. If I find a great idea at 25-30x and “something bad happens” assuming my thesis was correct in the first place, I’ve got a generational idea I can back up the truck on. Why be scared of that?

[Eldad]

4 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

Fair enough.  If you are getting an opportunity for each stock you are wanting to buy at least once per year then you aren't looking for something to be unrealistically cheap. 

No I am not. I will pay 25x for the best. I will even pay 50-60 times for CSU or something if it is historically on the cheaper side. We aren’t there yet. 

Edited August 5 by Eldad

[coffeecaninvestor]

15 minutes ago, Eldad said:

I am not that picky but I would at least like to pay a multiple below the average of the last few years on high quality with consistent growth before I jump for joy that the market sold off slightly. It’s just not there on what I want to buy. I don’t want Nintendo, DEO, BF, BRK for various reasons, but they are high quality. 

During COVID I had similar feelings.. It was clearly an error on my thinking as there was plenty of cheap ideas although maybe not the best businesses. I am coming around to being more agnostic about what I am buying. For a while I wanted to really only buy quality that is growing at cheap multiples, but at the end of the day I just want to make good investment. I was too locked into one investment philosophy and missed some good opportunities. Buying an Apple like company at 10x earnings might come around every decade or so. Obviously I am always looking for that opportunity, but I have to do something else in the meantime. 

[Cor]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It’s highly specific to individual names because of fundamental reasons but you monitor the trade based on VIX levels. Something that’s “insert discretion” reasonable valued, giving you a 35-50 VIX type premium on 10-20% OTM puts with less than 6 months duration should make money if nothing happens, or even with modest future declines, simply once VIX settles to more normalized levels. Ie like 20

Thanks!

[Eldad]

3 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

During COVID I had similar feelings.. It was clearly an error on my thinking as there was plenty of cheap ideas although maybe not the best businesses. I am coming around to being more agnostic about what I am buying. For a while I wanted to really only buy quality that is growing at cheap multiples, but at the end of the day I just want to make good investment. I was too locked into one investment philosophy and missed some good opportunities. Buying an Apple like company at 10x earnings might come around every decade or so. Obviously I am always looking for that opportunity, but I have to do something else in the meantime. 

I hear you. I’m not waiting on Apple at 10x.  I spent every dime I had spring of Covid and borrowed a good amount of money to buy stocks. I get it. I think this current market is still very expensive even on a GARP basis and without discounting for a recession. 

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, coffeecaninvestor said:

During COVID I had similar feelings.. It was clearly an error on my thinking as there was plenty of cheap ideas although maybe not the best businesses. I am coming around to being more agnostic about what I am buying. For a while I wanted to really only buy quality that is growing at cheap multiples, but at the end of the day I just want to make good investment. I was too locked into one investment philosophy and missed some good opportunities. Buying an Apple like company at 10x earnings might come around every decade or so. Obviously I am always looking for that opportunity, but I have to do something else in the meantime. 

Exactly, the thing is, you can start putting that trade on 20% above where you’d ideally want to put it on because 9/10 the big swing opp never arrives or by the time it does everyone’s mentally shot.

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Exactly, the thing is, you can start putting that trade on 20% above where you’d ideally want to put it on because 9/10 the big swing opp never arrives or by the time it does everyone’s mentally shot.

It is this type of discussion that helps makes a market.  What looks cheap and/or acceptable to some may look expensive and not remotely worth owning to others.  Both views can often be right at the same time.  All depends on your investment objectives, skill-set, risk tolerance and time horizon.   Also depends on where else you can invest outside of stocks and financial assets.  Personally, stocks and bonds will never comprise a majority of my net worth.

Edited August 5 by 73 Reds
spelling

[Eldad]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Exactly, the thing is, you can start putting that trade on 20% above where you’d ideally want to put it on because 9/10 the big swing opp never arrives or by the time it does everyone’s mentally shot.

Well I guess that’s my one advantage I love it when it’s horrible. 

[Dinar]

Shorted TLN at the money  August puts for a 10% premium

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

It is this type of discussion that helps makes a market.  What looks cheap and/or acceptable to some may look expensive and not remotely worth owing to others.  Both views can often be right at the same time.  All depends on your investment objectives, skill-set, risk tolerance and time horizon.   Also depends on where else you can invest outside of stocks and financial assets.  Personally, stocks and bonds will never comprise a majority of my new worth.

Right. Gregmal, from what I can tell, is buying balance sheets mostly. I don’t really have the time and skill for that. I would rather just wait on that one bad time a year. Fall 2023, Fall 2022, Covid, beginning of 2019. It happens fairly often. 

[UK]

I think there is no one answer for everybody, you have to find what suits you. It could not even be always the same and change with age or other circumstances. Dealraker's aproach is a great one, I am thinking a lot about it and will copy it partialy or fully one day. Already started a bit:). Sometimes I think that just managing/owning concentrated portfolio, always fully invested, also would be fine. But if you have time and too much energy, you also can do several things at once. I recently bought a first new larger investment in almost 2 years, while market was at an ATH and I was not thinking about the market much. But at the same time I still alow myself to move from being 70-80 to 120-130 invested (while most of the time being closer to 100), according to market sentiment, valuations, number of opportunities etc and somehow it seems this aproach also works for me or at least provides for a better sleep sometimes:). Being some 80 percent invested, when market is frothy, will not harm me that much, even if it continues that way for a while, especially since I own only 4-5 positions, but it will alow me to add a really good 1 or 2 opportunities if and when they come:)

 

Edited August 5 by UK

[Seoshin]

Bought more NTDOY at open. Adyen and Pluxee as well in the open. A starter position in FRPH as well.

[Lance]

BSM, CCJ and Hermes

 

Thanks

Lance

[bizaro86]

Added to JOE, IBKR

 

For IBKR I figure another bunch of folks who couldn't get into Schwab today will finally switch... mostly kidding - I think the market is over-estimating the effect of lower-but-not-zero rates.

[competitive-advantage]

Bought Visa Inc. One of few transactions made without my Visa

[cash_incinerator]

1 hour ago, Lance said:

BSM, CCJ and Hermes

 

Thanks

Lance

Can you give a little color on Hermes and why you bought here.  I love the brand of course, its the one fashion company i ever heard munger compliment, but i can never seem to get anywhere near a reasonable PT.  Thanks.  

 

PS I just started a position in IBKR