What are you buying today?

[Uccmal]

thanks LC.  I was just toying with it in my US Margin account.  Uncovered Calls were costing me the Entire cost of an equal amount of stock in Margin room.  The riskiness is relatively low but the amount of margin I will eat up constrains me in other ways. 

 

I just needed the reminder of why I don’t do this.  It’s been 11.5 years.  I got caught in the Fall 2008 crash after selling uncovered puts.  I had to sit on the phone for an hour with my broker ( they loaned me the extra money for a few minutes) unwinding the puts to get me out of a margin call situation.  Obviously, everything worked out ultimately but I learned not to go uncovered. 

 

I don’t hold enough of any US stock position to make it worthwhile to try and go covered. 

 

Good strategy for the way these markets are whipsawing. 

Thanks, A

 

Addendum: All of my put positions are in significant profit positions, even today.  I bought them Friday:  V, MA, Low (poor quality proxy for HD); Goog, and FB.  And my BAm puts from three weeks ago are up 15 x - still not selling though.  Looking for 28x to 30 in the next few days on these. 

[kab60]

Ulta Beauty... And a bit of ADS (almost puked when I did that)

[LC]

Addendum: All of my out positions are in significant profit positions, even today.  I bought them Friday:  V, MA, Low (poor quality proxy for HD); Goog, and FB.  And my BAm puts from three weeks ago are up 15 x - still not selling though.  Looking for 28x to 30 in the next few days on these.

Many ways to skin a cat! Congrats :)

[longlake95]

HTL

[Kaegi2011]

Bought DNKN, SBUX, NKE, MA, GOOGL, W, ANET, CME, EYE, GOOS, MCO, MSFT, NVR, YETI. 

 

Not huge positions but so far the IRR is insane! 

[gjangal]

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

 

Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings?

 

Analyst estimates for 2021 before this corona virus situation. In my view next year earnings may be impaired but earning power is not. Betting this will be the first ones to recover when things go back to normal. I see this and MA as a royalty on GDP and Inflation. Terminal growth is nominal GDP + any pricing power they may want to exert

[gjangal]

And I should add very low investment need for future growth if the duopoly persists

[Stuart D]

Buying V at a forward pe of 20. For all those who have been waiting for V , this looks like a good chance. Once the case curve flattens, economic activity should return to normal slowly. Given where rates are , this seems like an good price for a good company

 

Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings?

 

Analyst estimates for 2021 before this corona virus situation. In my view next year earnings may be impaired but earning power is not. Betting this will be the first ones to recover when things go back to normal. I see this and MA as a royalty on GDP and Inflation. Terminal growth is nominal GDP + any pricing power they may want to exert

 

Love the business but struggle with pe=20.

If I paid the $340b market cap today, I’d be waiting until 2040 to get my investment back in earnings. Will visa be around in 2040? and will they have averaged $17b/yr (for 20yrs) in earnings? Maybe yes, maybe no. It’s a tough one for me...

[coc]

Love the business but struggle with pe=20.

If I paid the $340b market cap today, I’d be waiting until 2040 to get my investment back in earnings. Will visa be around in 2040? and will they have averaged $17b/yr (for 20yrs) in earnings? Maybe yes, maybe no. It’s a tough one for me...

 

Can you walk us through your math there? Do you believe Visa's earnings will always be $17 billion?

[Stuart D]

Very simplistic, low-iq analysis here. Just taking the forward pe (mentioned in the other comments above) and saying if there was no decline/growth it would be a 20yr wait to get the market cap back in earnings.

 

I’m not smart enough to know if the earnings will grow, decline or flatline so V is in the too hard basket for me.

[gary17]

risk is relative

risk free government bond - 10 year at sub 1% with no earning power increase for 10 years.

Gary

[longlake95]

Very simplistic, low-iq analysis here. Just taking the forward pe (mentioned in the other comments above) and saying if there was no decline/growth it would be a 20yr wait to get the market cap back in earnings.

 

I’m not smart enough to know if the earnings will grow, decline or flatline so V is in the too hard basket for me.

 

I'm not that smart on macro, but I figure earnings have grown for 150 years or more, with occasional earnings compression every 7-10 years as the world "naturally" resets. The world is not linear. But earnings will be higher 5 years from now.

 

 

[Kaegi2011]

Very simplistic, low-iq analysis here. Just taking the forward pe (mentioned in the other comments above) and saying if there was no decline/growth it would be a 20yr wait to get the market cap back in earnings.

 

I’m not smart enough to know if the earnings will grow, decline or flatline so V is in the too hard basket for me.

 

What is in the not too hard bucket for you?

[Guest cherzeca]

everything would be in the too hard bucket for me if I had to forecast earnings.  why not find a great business (V qualifies) at a discount to recent price, and say that is good enough analysis to pull trigger? 

[nspo]

You also have to consider the compounding of reinvested earnings. The 20PE doesn't live in a vacuum. I have NO idea what the numbers actually are but if they retain 20% and earn 20% on those earnings than they're growing 4%. Then, you have to add in a portion for organic growth. Let's say you're fairly confident that V will grow at GDP. So 4%+3%, you get 7% growth.

 

What's a 20% roic and 3% organic growth worth with an extremely defensible business model? Not sure, but you get 7% for growth, and a cash yield of (20PE =5% yield) 5% yield *80% payout= 4% cash yield.

So 7% in growth, 4% in buyback and divs. 11% compounded? Not the worst

[Guest cherzeca]

You also have to consider the compounding of reinvested earnings. The 20PE doesn't live in a vacuum. I have NO idea what the numbers actually are but if they retain 20% and earn 20% on those earnings than they're growing 4%. Then, you have to add in a portion for organic growth. Let's say you're fairly confident that V will grow at GDP. So 4%+3%, you get 7% growth.

 

What's a 20% roic and 3% organic growth worth with an extremely defensible business model? Not sure, but you get 7% for growth, and a cash yield of (20PE =5% yield) 5% yield *80% payout= 4% cash yield.

So 7% in growth, 4% in buyback and divs. 11% compounded? Not the worst

 

way too many numbers.  the more numbers you use, the more wrong you can be

[nspo]

Yeah, far more numbers than a DCF huh?

[Guest cherzeca]

Yeah, far more numbers than a DCF huh?

 

yes, Huh!  all of your numbers are garbage in.  DCF is a model that makes sense if you have reliable data.  no prediction of the future results in reliable data.  if you cant smell a good business selling at a reasonable price, then you can have your DCF and play with yourself

[nspo]

So let me get this clear. You're saying returns on capital, owner's earnings, dividend yield, and retention rates are garbage in? Is there a donkey button on this board?? I hope others don't subject themselves to this "garbage" I'm seeing.

 

Read the numbers, don't take a cursory view and assume you understand what's being said.

[Guest cherzeca]

So let me get this clear. You're saying returns on capital, owner's earnings, dividend yield, and retention rates are garbage in? Is there a donkey button on this board?? I hope others don't subject themselves to this "garbage" I'm seeing.

 

Read the numbers, don't take a cursory view and assume you understand what's being said.

 

no I am saying your estimates of these variables are garbage in.  what is your expertise?  the street gets these numbers wrong all of the time (mainly because they suck up to management all the time to create their projections).  there is a false certainty to numbers that you dont appreciate, because you are asking someone/something to tell you what to do, and numbers are all too suggestive of wisdom.  capiche?

[nspo]

That's a valid point but these current numbers (and near term estimates thereof)are the best we have to work with. This is why one must be comfortable with the business prospects. The numbers I use assume normalized earnings and work from there. I lost you a little bit in the middle there but I'm Italian so capisco.

[Uccmal]

Was doing some ETF research for a friend of mine last night, and it prompted me to put in order for the Vanguard S&p 500 etf Canadian dollar (low ball) as usual. 

[boilermaker75]

Wrote GILD 70-strike, Marc 23 expiration puts for $0.51 per share.

[Spekulatius]

You also have to consider the compounding of reinvested earnings. The 20PE doesn't live in a vacuum. I have NO idea what the numbers actually are but if they retain 20% and earn 20% on those earnings than they're growing 4%. Then, you have to add in a portion for organic growth. Let's say you're fairly confident that V will grow at GDP. So 4%+3%, you get 7% growth.

 

What's a 20% roic and 3% organic growth worth with an extremely defensible business model? Not sure, but you get 7% for growth, and a cash yield of (20PE =5% yield) 5% yield *80% payout= 4% cash yield.

So 7% in growth, 4% in buyback and divs. 11% compounded? Not the worst

 

It’s not a bad idea because to the best of my limited knowledge, the companies LT prospect won’t be impaired by the Covid-19 although short term earnings may suffer. I just don’t think the price is all that attractive. this thing hasn’t even seen its late 2018 lows yet and thr prospect are way worse than they were back then.

 

Still being reasonably sure of no lasting impairment is worth something. We will see a lot of stocks going to zero in the next 12 month.

[nspo]

I agree with you. I don't have much of an opinion on their prospects besides having a high level of confidence they'll be larger in 5-10 years. The earnings will, in the short term be impacted and maybe in the medium term revert lower, naturally.