Marco Van Basten Posted April 9 Posted April 9 1 hour ago, buylowersellhigh said: Do you expect Holcim to acquire the whole company? What's the upside you see? Yes, twenty percent deal spread to close within six months. At thirteen dollars, it is an eleven percent free cash flow yield pro forma for synergies.
Rainier Posted April 9 Posted April 9 50 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Yes, twenty percent deal spread to close within six months. At thirteen dollars, it is an eleven percent free cash flow yield pro forma for synergies. I haven’t been following this. Have they announced that they’re going to buy the remainder? What is the 20% spread referencing? Sorry if those are obvious questions.
Saluki Posted April 9 Posted April 9 I've been nibbling a little a few shares a day on my basket of bombed out software companies that I believe are being unfairly tainted with the AI Apocalypse brush. CSU, Topicus, Lumine, Tyler, Adobe, DOCS, ZETA, VRRM, NTDOY. I haven't added to TBTC (full position 1% already, which is what I'm okay with in a nanocap), SPGI , FICO or MSCI which I think are fine but not as much of a bargain yet and may go down further.
Marco Van Basten Posted April 9 Posted April 9 21 minutes ago, Rainier said: I haven’t been following this. Have they announced that they’re going to buy the remainder? What is the 20% spread referencing? Sorry if those are obvious questions. It is my understanding that under the Peruvian law, Holcim has to tender for the rest. If I am not mistaken, both Holcim and CPAC stated that, and so did a JP Morgan analyst. However, let's say that Holcim does not. Then you own shares that pro-forma for announced synergies, at $10.75 is trading at around 13-14% free cash flow yield to the equity, and I expect most of that be paid out as dividend. I am happy to own a cement company in Peru, in a growing cement market, controlled by Holcim, with a 13-14% free cash flow yield and paying probably a double digit dividend yield. 20% spread reference the difference between roughly $13 price that Holcim must (as far as I understand) pay per ADR vs $10.75 at which it currently trades.
Rainier Posted April 9 Posted April 9 6 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: It is my understanding that under the Peruvian law, Holcim has to tender for the rest. If I am not mistaken, both Holcim and CPAC stated that, and so did a JP Morgan analyst. However, let's say that Holcim does not. Then you own shares that pro-forma for announced synergies, at $10.75 is trading at around 13-14% free cash flow yield to the equity, and I expect most of that be paid out as dividend. I am happy to own a cement company in Peru, in a growing cement market, controlled by Holcim, with a 13-14% free cash flow yield and paying probably a double digit dividend yield. 20% spread reference the difference between roughly $13 price that Holcim must (as far as I understand) pay per ADR vs $10.75 at which it currently trades. Thanks. I didn’t know that about Peruvian law.
backtothebeach Posted April 9 Posted April 9 On 3/7/2026 at 5:15 PM, backtothebeach said: Good question. Here is some of my, not entirely logical, thinking. A few weeks ago I noticed that both CSU and FFH were at the same price, so both being considered reliable compounders I wondered which one might win the race from there on out. I also looked up the historical relationship, which you can do on stockcharts, CSU stock price divided by FFH stock price (last 5 years). For the last 5 years, the "new" Fairfax had been outperforming CSU (the stock price). (Before that, CSU had steadily won, up to its stock price being 4.5x that of FFH). I kind of think it's a toss up from here on out, and with what you call the random walk of two stocks/variables, I wouldn't be surprised to see the two stock prices cross paths again in the future, even though they are not in the same sector. Still watching the race between FFH and CSU share prices. CSU is now lower again with the recent selloff. I kinda suspect the ratio is going to still go lower. FFH has room to run after going nowhere for 10 months, and the software AI scare is probably not over.
Seoshin Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) Buying more Nintendo with closed eyes. Added as well to CSU, CPNG, and SE Edited April 10 by Seoshin
hasilp89 Posted April 10 Posted April 10 (edited) On 4/9/2026 at 2:16 PM, Marco Van Basten said: It is my understanding that under the Peruvian law, Holcim has to tender for the rest. If I am not mistaken, both Holcim and CPAC stated that, and so did a JP Morgan analyst. However, let's say that Holcim does not. Then you own shares that pro-forma for announced synergies, at $10.75 is trading at around 13-14% free cash flow yield to the equity, and I expect most of that be paid out as dividend. I am happy to own a cement company in Peru, in a growing cement market, controlled by Holcim, with a 13-14% free cash flow yield and paying probably a double digit dividend yield. 20% spread reference the difference between roughly $13 price that Holcim must (as far as I understand) pay per ADR vs $10.75 at which it currently trades. I own a decent amount of this. I think the probability of a full tender is high. one of the source of cash savings holcim has mentioned is interest savings. Indicates to me that they intended to consolidate. Historically they have done the same. Either way they do have to make a tender offer. The 4 month clock for that started ticking when the deal closed. One item that may be an issue is that the tender is only legally required to be made to Peruvian shareholders ie not the adrs (at least that’s how I understand it) you would assume you could convert but someone like ibkr might not be able to do it. That said I assume that holcim will include the adrs in the tender offer as having just 8-10% shares out wouldn’t make much sense and as @Marco Van Basten says owning an interest in the business with their co ownership wouldn’t be a bad bet at this price either. Edited April 10 by hasilp89
Jaygo Posted April 13 Posted April 13 Is anyone looking at the CPG's today. I am intrigued by the valuation on a few. GIS and CPB would really fit in with rest of stray dogs in Kennel portfolio from a few years back. All the reasons they went down are still there but at the current valuation one would have to ask "just how bad can it get" I'll get a box of lucky charms and call it due diligence.
Marco Van Basten Posted April 13 Posted April 13 1 hour ago, Jaygo said: Is anyone looking at the CPG's today. I am intrigued by the valuation on a few. GIS and CPB would really fit in with rest of stray dogs in Kennel portfolio from a few years back. All the reasons they went down are still there but at the current valuation one would have to ask "just how bad can it get" I'll get a box of lucky charms and call it due diligence. I would not, none of them have any volume growth, and most don't have pricing power anymore. If you insist, take a look at Robertet in France. It is growing ahead of inflation.
tnathan Posted April 13 Posted April 13 1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said: I would not, none of them have any volume growth, and most don't have pricing power anymore. If you insist, take a look at Robertet in France. It is growing ahead of inflation. +1 -- the negative operating leverage is going to hurt and they've tapped the consumer out on price already.
valueventures Posted April 14 Posted April 14 Added a little bit to Midnight Sun Mining. On the mining side, very bullish on this one and Mako Mining
frommi Posted April 15 Posted April 15 (edited) Started my summer DAX put position. (DEC26, 22800) target is around 19000 if i get lucky. ( likely not ) Sold SKYH and some of my NCAV portfolio to fund this. (Probably a bad idea, but i dont like the Reddit and this forum's LLM-hype about this stock) Edited April 15 by frommi
gfp Posted April 15 Posted April 15 5 minutes ago, frommi said: Started my summer DAX put position. (DEC26, 22800) target is around 19000 if i get lucky. ( likely not ) Sold SKYH and some of my NCAV portfolio to fund this. (Probably a bad idea, but i dont like the Reddit and this forum's AI-hype about this stock) ha - it does seem like some of those Skyh pitches are written with a bunch of ChatGPT help and little editing to ChatGPT's style doesn't it? And since the LLMs use Reddit as a popular source there is some circularity to it all. I don't think any of that will change the outcome for Sky's business model though. Just a question of what you want to pay for it
frommi Posted April 15 Posted April 15 (edited) 17 minutes ago, gfp said: ha - it does seem like some of those Skyh pitches are written with a bunch of ChatGPT help and little editing to ChatGPT's style doesn't it? And since the LLMs use Reddit as a popular source there is some circularity to it all. I don't think any of that will change the outcome for Sky's business model though. Just a question of what you want to pay for it Yes . But will take time until its really obvious for everyone, maybe i get in again someday. Edited April 15 by frommi
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