Sloanes Teddy Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Hello All, long time lurker, first-time poster. I have been grateful to members of this board for many years. Bought my first FRFHF in 2015. Was able to (somewhat) confidently make it a big position in 2020. Now an outsized position thanks to y'all. I recently added to Tencent for the first time in years.
Cod Liver Oil Posted March 23 Posted March 23 If you can sleep with the China risk, Tencent/Prosus is sexcellent.
John Hjorth Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Sloanes Teddy said: Hello All, long time lurker, first-time poster. I have been grateful to members of this board for many years. Bought my first FRFHF in 2015. Was able to (somewhat) confidently make it a big position in 2020. Now an outsized position thanks to y'all. I recently added to Tencent for the first time in years. Welcome to CofB&F, Teddy [ @Sloanes Teddy ] ! Edited March 23 by John Hjorth
Mephistopheles Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) Bought more UNH. Down on a big up day. Maybe there is a leak and im a patsy, but the finalized Medicare advantage rate increase for ‘27 is due to come out in early April. Stock dropped big a couple months ago because the prelim guidance from CMS was a much smaller increase (0.09%) than expected. So if the final number is 1,2,3% or what not, we may see a massive jump in the stock. Recently one of the top guys at CMS admitted that an already hard market will turn harder without a proper rate increase. Long term UNH is still solid, so it’s a reasonable bet at this price. Go with options if you wanna gamble on the final number in early April and/or Q1 earnings at the end of month. Edited March 24 by Mephistopheles
Spekulatius Posted March 24 Posted March 24 10 hours ago, Mephistopheles said: Bought more UNH. Down on a big up day. Maybe there is a leak and im a patsy, but the finalized Medicare advantage rate increase for ‘27 is due to come out in early April. Stock dropped big a couple months ago because the prelim guidance from CMS was a much smaller increase (0.09%) than expected. So if the final number is 1,2,3% or what not, we may see a massive jump in the stock. Recently one of the top guys at CMS admitted that an already hard market will turn harder without a proper rate increase. Long term UNH is still solid, so it’s a reasonable bet at this price. Go with options if you wanna gamble on the final number in early April and/or Q1 earnings at the end of month. I agree on Medicare advantage rates probably getting adjusted upwards. It has been a trend in recent years when the initial proposal were for very small increases as well. Options could be a great way to play this.
frommi Posted March 24 Posted March 24 Bought more OTCM, now a 5% position. Looks like shooting fish in a barrel.
DooDiligence Posted March 24 Posted March 24 3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: I'm so sick of saying this: more Nintendo. Beats the hell out off saying more NVO.
benchmark Posted March 24 Posted March 24 5 hours ago, frommi said: Bought more OTCM, now a 5% position. Looks like shooting fish in a barrel. stock isn't particularly cheap, what's your thesis?
Seoshin Posted March 25 Posted March 25 12 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: I'm so sick of saying this: more Nintendo. Same. Its now 25% of my portfolio. Its sickening
frommi Posted March 25 Posted March 25 6 hours ago, benchmark said: stock isn't particularly cheap, what's your thesis? It doesnt look cheap on the surface, but it trades at a FCF yield of 6.5% when you subtract SBC. For a high quality business that will grow 20% + this year without using a lot of capital it looks very cheap. Also very likely a 5%+ dividend.
WayWardCloud Posted March 25 Posted March 25 (edited) Universal Music (UMG), new position, 2% of net worth. It's never happened to me before but I have too many ideas and the portfolio is a mess. I struggle to size opportunities and I feel like I have too many lines. A lot of quality stuff I've followed for years is dropping into buying range so I now have 17 individual stocks besides my all world ETF and 6 more are really tempting me. I usually prefer to have 6-9 but I'm not sure how to pick my best ideas among the 17-23 I like. I guess it's a good problem to have! This market is so weird. Alphabet Amazon Microsoft Constellation Software Lumine Topicus AJ Gallagher Ryan Specialty Brown&Brown Nintendo Adyen Global-E Patria Mercado Libre Nubank Universal Music Coupang Salesforce Adobe Lifco Veeva Medpace Edited March 25 by WayWardCloud
gfp Posted March 25 Posted March 25 17 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said: Universal Music (UMG), new position, 2% of net worth. It's never happened to me before but I have too many ideas and the portfolio is a mess. I struggle to size opportunities and I feel like I have too many lines. A lot of quality stuff I've followed for years is dropping into buying range so I now have 17 individual stocks besides my all world ETF and 6 more are really tempting me. I usually prefer to have 6-9 but I'm not sure how to pick my best ideas among the 17-23 I like. I guess it's a good problem to have! This market is so weird. Alphabet Amazon Microsoft Constellation Software Lumine Topicus AJ Gallagher Ryan Specialty Brown&Brown Nintendo Adyen Global-E Patria Mercado Libre Nubank Universal Music Coupang Salesforce Adobe Lifco Veeva Medpace Of course if you think about them as baskets like "Insurance Brokers", "Software", etc, they are more concentrated bets. But for me what works to refocus the portfolio when I get a bit of clutter is when one company I know very well gets very cheap and that is when you start looking critically at every position as a potential funding source to buy more of the one you know deeply. The further down the one you know goes, the more ruthless you are clearing pennies from the couch cushions until you are back to 3 or 4 positions and the portfolio is all cleaned up. But that's just me - I buy more of stuff I know well when it goes down. I don't have arbitrary "I'm already fully allocated in that name at 15% of assets" type of restrictions.
phil_Buffett Posted March 25 Posted March 25 universal music is an absolute disaster. why are they delaying the us listing? sure we have problems, but this company is a joke. i have it and have to admit it was a mistake, the same mistake bill ackman did. Price since Ipo way to high and they are not showing the results. CEO gets way to much money and doesnt care
hasilp89 Posted March 25 Posted March 25 4 hours ago, gfp said: Of course if you think about them as baskets like "Insurance Brokers", "Software", etc, they are more concentrated bets. But for me what works to refocus the portfolio when I get a bit of clutter is when one company I know very well gets very cheap and that is when you start looking critically at every position as a potential funding source to buy more of the one you know deeply. The further down the one you know goes, the more ruthless you are clearing pennies from the couch cushions until you are back to 3 or 4 positions and the portfolio is all cleaned up. But that's just me - I buy more of stuff I know well when it goes down. I don't have arbitrary "I'm already fully allocated in that name at 15% of assets" type of restrictions. +1 - It's all opportunity cost. when the price declines you quickly learn whether you have true conviction in the business and it's fundamental value. A very simple thing to think about in advance as well.
WayWardCloud Posted March 25 Posted March 25 12 hours ago, gfp said: Of course if you think about them as baskets like "Insurance Brokers", "Software", etc, they are more concentrated bets. But for me what works to refocus the portfolio when I get a bit of clutter is when one company I know very well gets very cheap and that is when you start looking critically at every position as a potential funding source to buy more of the one you know deeply. The further down the one you know goes, the more ruthless you are clearing pennies from the couch cushions until you are back to 3 or 4 positions and the portfolio is all cleaned up. But that's just me - I buy more of stuff I know well when it goes down. I don't have arbitrary "I'm already fully allocated in that name at 15% of assets" type of restrictions. Thanks I just put them into buckets and that really helped. One other mental trick I'm using is I'm imagining line by line "what if that position was twice as big?" If I don't feel comfortable then it's not a strong conviction and I should probably not have it at all.
WayWardCloud Posted March 26 Posted March 26 (edited) 13 hours ago, phil_Buffett said: universal music is an absolute disaster. why are they delaying the us listing? sure we have problems, but this company is a joke. i have it and have to admit it was a mistake, the same mistake bill ackman did. Price since Ipo way to high and they are not showing the results. CEO gets way to much money and doesnt care I agree on management. They're old British dudes and I think they have some tax incentive to keep in European. CEO also bought a football club which is what rich people do when they're done grinding and want some trophy toy during retirement, so he's definitely checked out. Grainge's contract ends on May 1st 2028 and his likely successor John Janick is US born and won't have this conflict of interest so I think NYSE listing conversations could restart in a couple years. But regardless of exchanges, if you own something it's worth what it's worth it shouldn't matter too much where it trades. Most IPOs are overpriced. It listed at a fwd PE of 34 and now it's under 15 which makes it interesting to me for the first time. This is world class IP (hello Nintendo people, you should be all over this!) and once you subtract the value of their stakes in Spotify and Tencent Music you get the core business at around a 10% yield 2 years out. So I like it very much here and I wouldn't recommend throwing in the towel just yet. ~ insert here whatever Buffett said about ham sandwiches ~ Edited March 26 by WayWardCloud
UK Posted March 26 Posted March 26 7 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: I agree on management. They're old British dudes and I think they have some tax incentive to keep in European. CEO also bought a football club which is what rich people do when they're done grinding and want some trophy toy during retirement, so he's definitely checked out. Grainge's contract ends on May 1st 2028 and his likely successor John Janick is US born and won't have this conflict of interest so I think NYSE listing conversations could restart in a couple years. But regardless of exchanges, if you own something it's worth what it's worth it shouldn't matter too much where it trades. Most IPOs are overpriced. It listed at a fwd PE of 34 and now it's under 15 which makes it interesting to me for the first time. This is world class IP (hello Nintendo people, you should be all over this!) and once you subtract the value of their stakes in Spotify and Tencent Music you get the core business at around a 10% yield 2 years out. So I like it very much here and I wouldn't recommend throwing in the towel just yet. ~ insert here whatever Buffett said about ham sandwiches ~ I didnt realised this got so much more atractive valuation! I really liked their business (and still do) and bought a decent position in the end of 2022, but soon sold, for no big reasons, but because was looking for cash to fund some M7 bets at the time. The question now perhaps if and how AI could affect their business? Probably not for old stuff, but maybe some more competition for atention for newer stuff? Perhaps good time to dig more:)
phil_Buffett Posted March 26 Posted March 26 (edited) 7 hours ago, WayWardCloud said: I agree on management. They're old British dudes and I think they have some tax incentive to keep in European. CEO also bought a football club which is what rich people do when they're done grinding and want some trophy toy during retirement, so he's definitely checked out. Grainge's contract ends on May 1st 2028 and his likely successor John Janick is US born and won't have this conflict of interest so I think NYSE listing conversations could restart in a couple years. But regardless of exchanges, if you own something it's worth what it's worth it shouldn't matter too much where it trades. Most IPOs are overpriced. It listed at a fwd PE of 34 and now it's under 15 which makes it interesting to me for the first time. This is world class IP (hello Nintendo people, you should be all over this!) and once you subtract the value of their stakes in Spotify and Tencent Music you get the core business at around a 10% yield 2 years out. So I like it very much here and I wouldn't recommend throwing in the towel just yet. ~ insert here whatever Buffett said about ham sandwiches ~ sounds good and i absolutely can follow your thesis. i hold it longer and therefore have to admit i made a mistake. management will not change. great IP and great company but with this constellation they are not interested in increasing value. Management will make their pockets full and Vincent Bollore will also make its Pocket full. Billy Boy and I made a mistake. Great Company for sure, great IP, but sometimes it doesnt matter if the company has a great product oder good IP when the company is operating not good enough. management and Vincent Bollore are certainly not alligned with me. This was a mistake to think they will create Value. For their pockets for sure Edited March 26 by phil_Buffett
coffeecaninvestor Posted March 26 Posted March 26 On 3/25/2026 at 12:55 AM, frommi said: It doesnt look cheap on the surface, but it trades at a FCF yield of 6.5% when you subtract SBC. For a high quality business that will grow 20% + this year without using a lot of capital it looks very cheap. Also very likely a 5%+ dividend. I agree I have a position and added. I was hoping it would go a little lower before earnings and I would load up but it’s being stubborn.
Jaygo Posted March 27 Posted March 27 Adds to West Red Lake, mako, arc and a little more Methanex Yes all commodities, no I don't like money.
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