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Posted

AD.

 

Special situation undergoing transformational corporate restructure into a pure play to co. Sold wireless ops to TMUS for $4.4B and now disposing of its wireless spectrum, adding tenants to its 4449 cell towers with an average tenancy rate of 1 (vs 2 for pure play comps), significant margin expansion ahead as 40% elevated SG&A removed in 2026 as spectrum sold and strategic review sunsets in 2026.   Fixed cost biz implies addition of tenants from 1 to 2 tenants/tower which is industry average will flow  almost entirely to profits.... 

 

 

Posted
46 minutes ago, Jan said:

I started a position in ADBE too, also thanks to your posts @brobro777 may we do well.

 

Yea no prob bro 

 

I try to make bets in situations where the company's got customers by the balls like cigs/tobacco because that's where I've done the best 

 

Years ago I was reading these comments by Reddit funboys who supposedly worked in the industry whining about Adobe: how they were going to switch, other software is superior, Adobe is ripping them off, blah blah blah. I didn't have a position in ADBE at the time so I thought meh, who cares 

 

Well years later the reality is Adobe continues to grow paying subscriber base (https://prodesigntools.com/number-of-creative-cloud-subscribers.html). But those guys on Reddit all said Adobe sucked ass, what happened? My guess is they may be right about Adobe sucking ass, but they keep paying because they got no choice, Adobe got them by the balls. 

 

I understand ADBE can continue to sell off - from 14X Free cash now maybe it'll go to 11X like MSFT in 2011. But I think over the long run you can make decent returns without excess risk

 

 

Posted
On 1/9/2026 at 1:42 AM, Cod Liver Oil said:

More Nintendo around 10,000 yen. 

 

Maybe I am missing something, but can you explain what makes Nintend attractive at these prices?
To grow into the current valuation they would need to double their net earnings. I say this from the assumption of Disney's P/E, which, although ofc not perfectly comparable because of nintendo's hardware component, is quite comparible in terms of family friendly IPs. Both are similar in that they target children, but then keep those children as customers even when they grow up due to nostalgia and introduce their own children and the circle continues.

 

Even though they are succesful relatively with their Mario movie and Nintendo stores, the vast majority of their income still comes from hard- and software sales. Switch 2 has a lower profit margin than the switch.

Don't get me wrong, I think their margins are great and their moat strong, but they seem awfully expensive.

Posted (edited)

@John D. Rockefeller There are not a lot of great businesses out there with long runways. We like to hold stuff for at least 10 years to let the miracle of compounding happen. Nintendo is a very good business (tarred slightly by the perception that it is hit driven/run by Japanese cultists) which has the potential to become even better over the next decade.  I don't think the stock price over the last 5 years reflects the improvements in the underlying business and their growing willingness to monetize world class IP. Like Costco and Hermes, it doesn't screen cheap. I don't get too fixated on p/e; I focus on rate of change improvements in the business and global cultural trends and hope we can catch a multi decade ride. 

Edited by Cod Liver Oil
Posted

Sold down BTI and IMB to 1% positions, started positions in CSU, LON:DOM, AHH, CMCSA over the past month.
Also brought Evolution AB back up the max size of 5%.

Posted

Spent some time over the weekend thinking how to put some of my cash to work. Decided to pull the trigger and add significantly to BRK, Fairfax, AJG, and NNI.  I am down to around ~27% cash. 

 

I think these companies all have good and trust worthy management, have the ability to compound for a long time with little risk of a catastrophic blow up, and have demonstrated the ability to generate above average shareholder returns through smart capital allocation. I think there are some really cheap things out there that may outperform these, but I have more confidence in these companies, and am willing to hold them through ups and downs which I think is important with markets at all time highs, but you never know this thing could keep churning higher.  

 

At these prices I think you are likely just getting the return the business generates which I think will be satisfactory, but not sure about any multiple expansion unless they hit a home run on some kind of new business line, investment, etc. 

 

 

Posted
5 hours ago, brobro777 said:

Bought some NTDOY 

 

Blades of Steel for NES was a really good game

 

That one hit home, thanks for the trip down memory lane 😄

Posted
2 hours ago, Fly said:

 

That one hit home, thanks for the trip down memory lane 😄

 

I played Contra and Tyson Punch out like everyone else but this was a fun game to play versus friends

 

Posted

Added to Amrize in the premarket when it was down around 5% from yesterday's close.  Didn't see any news.  Buying stocks before 7am CDT has a lot less competition since right at 7 there are a ton of discount brokers that enter the chat

 

image.thumb.png.662e9c7833afcd7238c7bf02d0654099.png

Posted
16 minutes ago, MungerWunger said:

Software is getting murdered today 🤣

Get used to it fellas!

Posted
5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

HUBS , DB1 and adds to WDAY, NTDOY

 

What do you think about CRM and MNDY?

 

Quote
Feature Category HubSpot Salesforce monday.com Workday
Primary "Source of Truth" Contacts & Leads Customers & Complex Data Projects & Tasks Employees & Money
Core Product Type Customer Platform (Marketing, Sales, Service) CRM (Customer Relationship Management) Work OS (Project Management) ERP (HR & Finance)
Best For Inbound Growth: Marketing automation, ease of use, and fast adoption for sales teams. Complex Sales: Large-scale territory management, CPQ, and granular customization. Collaboration: Visual task management and creative workflows. Compliance: Managing global payroll, benefits, and general ledger.
Target Audience Scale-ups to Enterprises (Focus on "Ease of Use") Large Enterprises (Focus on "Customizability") SMBs to Enterprises (Focus on "Agility") Mid-to-Large Enterprises (Focus on "Control")
Implementation Weeks (Very fast) Months to Years (Complex) Hours to Weeks (Instant) Months to Years (Rigid)

 

MNDY already rebranded to "AI work platform":

image.thumb.png.2578859779e94d0973a36e72af139f67.png

 

 

Posted
4 hours ago, gfp said:

Added to Amrize in the premarket when it was down around 5% from yesterday's close.  Didn't see any news.  Buying stocks before 7am CDT has a lot less competition since right at 7 there are a ton of discount brokers that enter the chat

 

image.thumb.png.662e9c7833afcd7238c7bf02d0654099.png

I think a number of names in the space got hit - Heidelberg Materials, Buzzi, CRH, MLM.  European names I think got earnings estimates reductions due to currency.  

Posted
1 minute ago, Junior R said:

Why is software names getting hit today?

the market believes that customers can vibecode their own customized solutions with AI (HUBS, CSU, CRM)

Posted
4 minutes ago, MungerWunger said:

the market believes that customers can vibecode their own customized solutions with AI (HUBS, CSU, CRM)

Thanks CRM seems like a good buy soon...They got the costumers data so easy to integrate with AI bots

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