What are you buying today?

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Marco Van Basten I don't know what 2035 sales might look like. Given the business improvements, the stock has not done much over the last 5 years. It's possible it gets tarred for the cyclicality of the gaming industry and never really compounds. I have it a little over 10% now but may take it to 15 as it drops. Perception is important here.  Is this Disney circa 2010 or 2020? Good things are happening on the business level. If they are sustainable, the stock will get some serious updraft.

Edited December 19, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Marco Van Basten As software sales grow, net margins will move over 30% putting Nintendo in the elite company of Tencent, Alphabet,  MSFT and TSM.

I don't mind their heavy net cash position;  capital allocation will improve but remain culturally Japanese. I am not going to worry about the yen since 70% of their sales are international. I like how they are toll taking on the IP expansion into movies and parks. I can't worry too much about chip prices. It a beautiful product with incoming third party material and a growing ecosystem. Added benefit: It's unlikely that Zuck will suck out your soul through your nostrils while you play Mario Kart. 

Well 30% EBIT margins are easily possible if game sales go up and hardware sales go up and become a much smaller part of the revenue mix.

 

I think having an idea where accompany might be 10 years out is a good exercise. In Nintendo‘s case, it seems  hard because this includes another console cycle.

The issue that Nintendo needs to be concerned about is that consoles seems to be losing market to both mobile and PC‘s.

Edited December 19, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Saluki]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Well 30% EBIT margins are easily possible if game sales go up and hardware sales go up and become a much smaller part of the revenue mix.

 

I think having an idea where accompany might be 10 years out is a good exercise. In Nintendo‘s case, it seems  hard because this includes another console cycle.

The issue that Nintendo needs to be concerned about is that consoles seems to be losing market to both mobile and PC‘s.

 

The console cycle is the big risk that was priced in before the recent run up. So on the pullback it looks cheap when consider Switch Online which has SaaS characteristics. And the other future revenue drivers that are starting to come online (Theme Parks, built and paid for by partner), future Mario movie, and Zelda Live Action movie. Future merch sales from theme parks. etc. I bought some NTDOY the past couple of days. 

 

Been adding some CPNG, but I sold some puts on it before which may get assigned (and Nintendo doesn't have options) so I'd rather buy Nintendo common when I can. 

 

Very small nibbles on PayPal. 

[Spekulatius]

9 minutes ago, Saluki said:

 

The console cycle is the big risk that was priced in before the recent run up. So on the pullback it looks cheap when consider Switch Online which has SaaS characteristics. And the other future revenue drivers that are starting to come online (Theme Parks, built and paid for by partner), future Mario movie, and Zelda Live Action movie. Future merch sales from theme parks. etc. I bought some NTDOY the past couple of days. 

 

Been adding some CPNG, but I sold some puts on it before which may get assigned (and Nintendo doesn't have options) so I'd rather buy Nintendo common when I can. 

 

Very small nibbles on PayPal. 

NTDOY trades at a similar valuation than Sony, but I think the latter has better capital allocation and management.

 

Gun to my head, I would buy SONY here over NTDOY.

Edited December 19, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The issue that Nintendo needs to be concerned about is that consoles seems to be losing market to both mobile and PC‘s.

 

Nintendo is far, far more isolated from this due to the IP. If you want to play Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon games, you need a Switch (or sure, you can run an emulator and pirate on a PC I guess). There's not really anything stopping you from replacing a Xbox/PS with a computer however.

 

Mobile wise, Nintendo is seeing success.

[hardcorevalue]

just a bit more $CSU.to. 

 

How can you hate a $5m insider buy from Miller. 

 

It's going to have seemed so obvious in hindsight. 

Edited December 19, 2025 by hardcorevalue

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Spekulatius I like Sony too but own 5 times as much Nintendo because its kind of an IP unicorn. Console cycles come and go but IP is the moat,  the razor blade, the gift which keeps giving.

Edited December 19, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[RichardGibbons]

5 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Why is it a strange question?  Every good investor wants to know what the business will earn in ten years, otherwise how do you value it?

 

It's a strange question for a bunch of reasons:

1. It's basically impossible to predict earnings accurately in 10 years, let alone 20, for any company.
2. It's particularly impossible for companies that release consoles that could be a success or total flop. 10 years is at least one console cycle. 20 years could be 3.
3. He actually touched on the information that was important--thoughts on the moat and capital allocation.
4. Someone else's estimate of a company's revenue in 10 or 20 years likely has negative value--it's more likely to hurt you than help you (because of weird anchoring on something that's close to a random number.) Pretty well all the value one might get from the 10 or 20 years estimate exercise is derived from the process of thinking through the moats, opportunities, and risks, which he already touched on.
5. Everyone's process is different, and it's strange assuming that calculating a 10 or 20 year revenue number should be what everyone does (and lightly implying they are incompetent if it isn't part of their process)
6. If calculating that number isn't part of the process, it's asking a lot of someone to calculate the number because it would be a fair amount of work. (Particularly when it's clear, as in this case, that if they had a number, they would have already told you.)
7. It wouldn't be strange for a novice to ask that question (because they don't know items 1-6), but I assume you aren't one because you don't write like one.

Sure, everyone would like to know what a business would earn in 10 or 20 years, but nobody actually does. As Munger says, "Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I've never seen him do one."

 

To answer the "otherwise how do I value it" question, my strategy is to look at the price, the earnings, the potential growth, the moat, and the risks, and decide whether it's cheap. Then, as new information comes to light, I re-evaluate whether it still looks cheap.

[Spekulatius]

No @Marco Van Basten AkA @Dinar is not a novice. I think the question about 10 year out is impossible to answer precisely but it sort of determines if the investment is a successful or not. Share prices are drivers by earnings.

 

If you say it is dependent on console cycle (which I think is correct) you really need to discount this correctly and should not pay a rich multiple, imo. 

[DooDiligence]

Hasn't the Crossroads Capital thesis been playing out? Nintendo's console cycles do in fact appear to be successfully moving from boom-bust to more of a recurring revenue model. The OG Switch is pretty long in the tooth and still selling well. Switch 2 is just an incremental upgrade and has been very well received. As to projecting revenues a decade out, LOL. Nothing is certain, but it does look promising that the next generation of brand ambassadors are being introduced to Nintendo characters by their parents now. Something would have to go horribly wrong for this not to continue into the next decade at least.

[rogermunibond]

Putting together a dividend portfolio on the back of year end tax loss selling.

 

CLX

KMB

T

PFE

[coffeecaninvestor]

FRFHF 

[Jaygo]

I held my nose and bought some Lunr. This is the Lundins new royalty co. 

 

The price is out of whack right now as it just started trading. the position is meant to keep my eye on it. The initial trade was supposed to start around 10 but i just paid close to 13. 

 

I think once things normalize this will be a top performer. That base could be closer to $8 and the hope is with time we settle down to the appropriate price then move up from there as the business succeeds.

[Malmqky]

Added to Coupang for the first time in a few years. Trying to buy for CROX leaps too. Eyeing Nintendo.

[thowed]

2 hours ago, Jaygo said:

I held my nose and bought some Lunr. This is the Lundins new royalty co. 

 

The price is out of whack right now as it just started trading. the position is meant to keep my eye on it. The initial trade was supposed to start around 10 but i just paid close to 13. 

 

I think once things normalize this will be a top performer. That base could be closer to $8 and the hope is with time we settle down to the appropriate price then move up from there as the business succeeds.

 

Oof, thanks for the reminder.  I did same on Friday, which was crazy as was halted for most of the day.

 

[dipod]

Shorted another series of slightly OTM NVO puts expiring this Friday.

[Valuebo]

More CPNG leaps cause cheap as f.

[Jan]

Gold miners: Added to MKO, started a position in AEM

[villainx]

2 minutes ago, Jan said:

Gold miners: Added to MKO, started a position in AEM

 

 

My friend was recommending GDX for a long time, and reiterated just last week.  Still have room to run?

 

 

[Jan]

No one knows, I think gold might stay high and gold miners would then produce good profits. Its also nice to have some diversification in a insurance and broad market portfolio.

[Hsmpanl]

More FIH. Podcasts with Hari are a helluva drug.

[ANP301191]

LVMH - I think numbers will be better than expected in retail for the season

[sholland]

On 12/17/2025 at 2:58 PM, backtothebeach said:

 

As far as I can tell, the $6.60 per share have not arrived yet (at IB), shares have disappeared though...

My $6.60 per share of TTSH still has not arrived (Fidelity). I see the shares, but they have been reassigned a value of zero.

[Paarslaars]

17 hours ago, Jan said:

No one knows, I think gold might stay high and gold miners would then produce good profits. Its also nice to have some diversification in a insurance and broad market portfolio.

Personally prefer silver miners, more underlying supply crunch because of industrial purposes. Gold is just going up because BRICS are buying... they could dump just as easily.

Edited December 23, 2025 by Paarslaars

[backtothebeach]

1 hour ago, sholland said:

My $6.60 per share of TTSH still has not arrived (Fidelity). I see the shares, but they have been reassigned a value of zero.

Same. Apparently 2-4 weeks is normal in these situations (says AI).

Still shows up as a corporate action at IB: