Jaygo Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 8 minutes ago, Valuebo said: Lol same, see CROX topic! same. would look at 82 to exit again 800 at 75.25
Spekulatius Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 22 hours ago, djokovic1 said: The problem with CSU and any serial acquirer in general is that the larger you get, it gets hard to continue to compound at high rates. CSU is the only acquirer that had dealt with this transition exceptionally well, ie deploy at low multiples at scale. The law of large numbers will catch up with them too, ie it will be hard for them to continue a 100% re-investment rate. Yet could be a good time to buy given the multiple de-rating. CSU re- investment is already below 100% this year, so I think it’s already happening. The whale can only get so big sucking in plankton too which is probably the mental image I have regarding CSU acquisition driven growth. I did add a few more shares today.
Eldad Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 57 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: CSU re- investment is already below 100% this year, so I think it’s already happening. The whale can only get so big sucking in plankton too which is probably the mental image I have regarding CSU acquisition driven growth. I did add a few more shares today. Blues whales eat exclusively krill Not really a whale anymore in market cap but the cashflows just keep growing. Maybe with VMS becoming essentially worthless (despite the lack anything close to a disruption at this point) they can deploy all that cash soon.
Red Lion Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 On 11/9/2025 at 9:34 AM, formthirteen said: It's a new holding so therefore "no" conviction. It's show me the money for CSU and Mr. Market. I try not to fight Mr. Market when entering a position. When I started investing around 20 years ago, I would consistently buy falling knives and sell my winners before letting them ride. My returns have improved dramatically over recent years by pulling the weeds.
MungerWunger Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 1 minute ago, Red Lion said: When I started investing around 20 years ago, I would consistently buy falling knives and sell my winners before letting them ride. My returns have improved dramatically over recent years by pulling the weeds. My winner is also a falling knife right now at the moment (Constellation)
Red Lion Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 26 minutes ago, MungerWunger said: My winner is also a falling knife right now at the moment (Constellation) I know the feeling.
Saluki Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 Sold out of the FRPH in my retirement account and bought some Fairfax. Got assigned some shares on Friday for puts on Venture Global and I am holding on to them for now.
wisowis Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 (edited) Sold out of SCR.TO, also had merger arb AND.TO close last week. Bought more FFH and a starter in CHE today, last week added to ATD.TO, WCN, CSU and TPZ.TO. Edited November 10, 2025 by wisowis
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 (edited) The fact that so many value bros on here and Fintwit are talking about piling into CSU.TO (at nothing that resembles "value" multiples) seems like a red flag... Edited November 10, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings
thepupil Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 10 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: The fact that so many value bros on here and Fintwit are talking about piling into CSU.TO (at nothing that resembles "value" multiples) seems like a red flag... I mean how could one not be at least a little bit eager to catch this falling knife...
Eldad Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 10 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: The fact that so many value bros on here and Fintwit are talking about piling into CSU.TO (at nothing that resembles "value" multiples) seems like a red flag... 22x FCF doesn’t do it for you on a company growing steadily at high teens %? Believe me, it’s the worst time ever for me to have to deploy half my cash hoard on CSU from a macro perspective, but at the end of the day I have to bet on the company I know and trust when given this opportunity.
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 1 minute ago, Eldad said: 22x FCF doesn’t do it for you on a company growing steadily at high teens %? Believe me, it’s the worst time ever for me to have to deploy half my cash hoard on CSU from a macro perspective, but at the end of the day I have to bet on the company I know and trust when given this opportunity. I get it, it's a software compounder rollup of a large number of software firms... The question is whether moats are being eroded without people realizing it. Look at Fiserv recently or Paypal. There's often too much anchoring and inertia bias in these things I think it will take a deep analysis to figure it out, not a lot of the superficial stuff I've been seeing
Eldad Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 10 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: I get it, it's a software compounder rollup of a large number of software firms... The question is whether moats are being eroded without people realizing it. Look at Fiserv recently or Paypal. There's often too much anchoring and inertia bias in these things I think it will take a deep analysis to figure it out, not a lot of the superficial stuff I've been seeing A FCF DCF gets you to a value of USD 3,860, so I think the erosion of moats is more than priced in. The question, that might appeal to you specifically, is should we buy into the AI hype and accept the inevitable breaching of these moats in the near future?
Dalal.Holdings Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 11 minutes ago, Eldad said: A FCF DCF gets you to a value of USD 3,860, so I think the erosion of moats is more than priced in. The question, that might appeal to you specifically, is should we buy into the AI hype and accept the inevitable breaching of these moats in the near future? I don't do DCFs
Eldad Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 1 minute ago, Dalal.Holdings said: I don't do DCFs I like it. I may wish I didn’t when this conflagration is over.
Ver Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 Bought more Pop Mart. Cheap price with high certainty over the next 10 years, but the business model is annoying to explain. I can't think of a business more alien to the typical fund manager, which is probably why it can get mispriced so consistently.
aws Posted November 10, 2025 Posted November 10, 2025 Wrote a bunch of weekly puts on CROX in various strikes from 71-75. Enough to more than double down if all assigned. In the end I may wish I just added shares outright, but I'm a sucker for collecting put premiums on shares being bought back heavily at 52 week lows.
dipod Posted November 11, 2025 Posted November 11, 2025 3 hours ago, aws said: Wrote a bunch of weekly puts on CROX in various strikes from 71-75. Enough to more than double down if all assigned. In the end I may wish I just added shares outright, but I'm a sucker for collecting put premiums on shares being bought back heavily at 52 week lows. Same here. Pretty decent premiums for the short term puts.
aesophawk Posted November 11, 2025 Posted November 11, 2025 Interesting market, more opportunities than I can remember in a while. Bought some KMX, HTLD, CMCSA, and LYB. @Spekulatius saw that you bought some EMN. Curious if you looked at LYB, and if so why did you prefer EMN.
Spekulatius Posted November 12, 2025 Posted November 12, 2025 5 hours ago, aesophawk said: Interesting market, more opportunities than I can remember in a while. Bought some KMX, HTLD, CMCSA, and LYB. @Spekulatius saw that you bought some EMN. Curious if you looked at LYB, and if so why did you prefer EMN. I think EMN is a better business as the recycling business competes less with China. However, I do like the chemical distributors better (BNR, AZE).
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