What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

ABNB, COO

[Spekulatius]

Another GOOGL buyer here. I think the deal price isn’t really worth worrying that much about.

[Onefoothurdles]

Used last week's weakness in Canadian stocks to Buy FFH and add to FIH and ELF. 

[Junior R]

1 hour ago, Onefoothurdles said:

Used last week's weakness in Canadian stocks to Buy FFH and add to FIH and ELF. 

Last week was a good buy with the drop in prices

[KPO]

6 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Why is GOOGL (with voting rights) more than 1% cheaper than GOOG (without)?

Given the existence of the founder controlled B shares, neither public class hold any sway over voting matters.  I’ve seen a similar dynamic with BF, which is more perplexing. 

[backtothebeach]

8 hours ago, mistakenpoint said:

I think Alphabet issues GOOG for stock comp and buys back a lot more GOOG. So more demand for GOOG could be the reason.

Thanks, that makes sense.

[Red Lion]

Small add to CP with 401k contribution. 

[dipod]

Shorted some NVO puts roughly a month out.

[Spekulatius]

I bought a little of ARE (Aecon)

[longlake95]

Little more MATR this past week. 

[MxMI17]

Bought a starter in AMAT. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Was put enough Joe that it moves into the core portfolio and will have to meet the parents. 

[Hsmpanl]

46 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Was put enough Joe that it moves into the core portfolio and will have to meet the parents. 

Doing the lords work to absorb Bruce’s dumping… I bought more this week too. We appreciate your service

[moatrep]

I am in oXy but I want to bet huge in oil, not sure which leverage options. My bet it's that an attack on Iran is imminent. It is an existential threath for almost all players in the world exept Rusia. You don't want a north korea near the suez canal. The other thing is the psycology of Donald Trump, looking for a quick gain. As for Israel, that will be the more affected, is also supporting it. The risk is that Iran already has something and there will not be an attack. Not sure who is bluffing here. But Iran has an ultimatum of 2 months so I think at least holding some good companies like oxy or others should be a good speculation. Other levered name that I have is pbf energy, that carlos slim is buying.

Edited March 23, 2025 by moatrep

[Sweet]

8 minutes ago, moatrep said:

I am in oXy but I want to bet huge in oil, not sure which leverage options. My bet it's that an attack on Iran is imminent. It is an existential threath for almost all players in the world exept Rusia. You don't want a north korea near the suez canal. The other think is the psycology of Donald Trump, looking for a quick gain. As for Israel, that will be the more affected, is also supporting it. The risk is that Iran already has something and there will not be an attack. Not sure who is bluffing here. But Iran has an ultimatum of 2 months so I think at least holding some good companies like oxy or others should be a good speculation. Other levered name that I have is pbf energy, that carlos slim is buying.

I would suggest you don’t make this bet.  Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields a few years ago and the price spike and was down the same day.

 

If there is an attack on Iran you can bet there would be a massive SPR release.

[moatrep]

Yeah i guess " big" is up to 30 percent in long and strong positions like oxy. And i think holding the two first years of Trump can be a good trade. That is all, the rest of my portfolio will be long things, even oxy as a 10 percent I will be long. But I think if an invation is not now it will never be again (all on a tax free account)

Edited March 23, 2025 by moatrep

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

I would suggest you don’t make this bet.  Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields a few years ago and the price spike and was down the same day.

If there is an attack on Iran you can bet there would be a massive SPR release.

 

The US doesn't have any SPR left to release. The transactional expectation is that OPEC would lift its current production restrictions in return for US 'protection' and access to key port and airfields. The black swans are the sinking of a US navy capital ship, a US cargo ship carrying fuel/weapons, and/or the termination of a US AWACS plane; any of which will crack the myth of US invincibility. The US discovering that it is also going it alone .... allies only supplying weapons and intelligence, on a transactional basis.

 

SD  

[moatrep]

24 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

The US doesn't have any SPR left to release. The transactional expectation is that OPEC would lift its current production restrictions in return for US 'protection' and access to key port and airfields. The black swans are the sinking of a US navy capital ship, a US cargo ship carrying fuel/weapons, and/or the termination of a US AWACS plane; any of which will crack the myth of US invincibility. The US discovering that it is also going it alone .... allies only supplying weapons and intelligence, on a transactional basis.

 

SD  

Well china and europe need global maritimal trade more than they hate the US. To me the only people that wants a disruption is Rusia. The endgame will be to block the suez canal and have two cheap markets were they can issue petro dolars. I think Trump and Putin may negotiate a deal like the cuban missile crisis. Ucraine for Iran. Let's say that a big incursion or bombing in Iran can be spected in the next 2 months, at least 20 percent of the times. I am in a tax free account so I can move some assets until the ultimatum finishes.

Edited March 23, 2025 by moatrep

[Gregmal]

Why not just buy futures options in the underlying commodity if that’s the expectation?

[moatrep]

Sorry I'm quite iliterate in that aspect. Maybe I should go for that, although some levered oil company like oxy in the pandemic will be my ideal. I will search in the energy section, but yeah most likely I will buy some futures. How will you size a bet like this as an example?

Edited March 23, 2025 by moatrep

[Gregmal]

That’s a highly individualized question. For me, I’ve generally found risking permanent impairment on 5-7% of capital acceptable for a higher quality idea. From there you reverse into the size of your position. If it’s a well timed equity position that might mean a 20% position. If it’s an OTM option, it might only be a 5% position. Gotta figure out what works for you and your style.

[moatrep]

Ok thanks that makes sense. I will stick to this for the moment. Cheers

[SharperDingaan]

This trade is essentially a bet on the ME blowing up before time X; hold OXY so that you can benefit from the expected volatility ... via a buy/sell of OXY. a buy of OXY/sale of a call during the volatility, or a long OXY call. Downside is that the volatility doesn't occur, your OXY cost base is too high, or you're out your call premium. Decide your priorities.

 

The US is exiting the Russia/Ukraine war, the hope is that intervention pulls the US into an extended ME engagement instead. The US needs to sell weapons that allies are now reluctant to buy, and collect funds for the ordinance that the Navy is burning daily. Should the US have to 'restructure' it's debt in the interim, or the tariff war not go the way Trump hopes, it doesn't go well. More production, and lower oil prices for an extended period; maybe the US supporting a floor price via a refill of the SPR. 

 

Lots of ways to play.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moatrep]

That is another good suggestion, making calls in my long position in a period like that. Also the call on oxy may be cheaper and have the buffet buying floor. I will consider both. Cheers

[Sweet]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

The US doesn't have any SPR left to release. The transactional expectation is that OPEC would lift its current production restrictions in return for US 'protection' and access to key port and airfields. The black swans are the sinking of a US navy capital ship, a US cargo ship carrying fuel/weapons, and/or the termination of a US AWACS plane; any of which will crack the myth of US invincibility. The US discovering that it is also going it alone .... allies only supplying weapons and intelligence, on a transactional basis.

 

SD  

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

 

I dont know what you mean.