Dinar Posted January 10 Posted January 10 4 hours ago, Longnose said: Do you have a price target on them. They've been nothing but down for quite a while. But beer isnt going away. What caused todays swing do you know? They missed earnings and guided down. Here is how think about it: at $180 per share, you are paying 12x forward EPS for a business that grows volumes at 3% per annum. So it is pricing in negative volume growth, while the business is showing growing volumes.
Junior R Posted January 10 Posted January 10 2 hours ago, gfp said: nibble nibble nibble - looking forward to my fifteen dollars! also added some more
Spekulatius Posted January 10 Posted January 10 2 hours ago, Dinar said: They missed earnings and guided down. Here is how think about it: at $180 per share, you are paying 12x forward EPS for a business that grows volumes at 3% per annum. So it is pricing in negative volume growth, while the business is showing growing volumes. Ghee’s, I just noticed how far down this went. STZ has been a perpetual market share gainer, but all the booze stocks have been disaster lately. HEIO ought to be close to 11x earnings now. I do agree STZ looks attractive here.
dwy000 Posted January 10 Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Ghee’s, I just noticed how far down this went. STZ has been a perpetual market share gainer, but all the booze stocks have been disaster lately. HEIO ought to be close to 11x earnings now. I do agree STZ looks attractive here. It does make me wonder how big of a fundamental shift is actually going on in the booze market and where the bottom lies. Especially when the recent studies show the drop in drinking by teens and 20's has been enormous. Restaurants are hurting from lower alcohol sales (while non-alcoholic drinks are taking off), nightclub attendance has been hammered, and it increasingly appears to be a long term shift not a short term wave. STZ takes share but that's gonna come at the cost of margins at some point. It's an appealing cash flow story if you can get comfortable there's a bottom nearby.
Dinar Posted January 10 Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Ghee’s, I just noticed how far down this went. STZ has been a perpetual market share gainer, but all the booze stocks have been disaster lately. HEIO ought to be close to 11x earnings now. I do agree STZ looks attractive here. I think that annual organic volume growth for Heineken has been less than 0.5% per annum over the past five and ten years.
EBITDAg Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Has anyone done the work to understand what the impact would be to STZ if they’re slapped with 25% tariffs?
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Just buy TAP and call it a day Disclosure: I own it
Spekulatius Posted January 11 Posted January 11 45 minutes ago, dwy000 said: It does make me wonder how big of a fundamental shift is actually going on in the booze market and where the bottom lies. Especially when the recent studies show the drop in drinking by teens and 20's has been enormous. Restaurants are hurting from lower alcohol sales (while non-alcoholic drinks are taking off), nightclub attendance has been hammered, and it increasingly appears to be a long term shift not a short term wave. STZ takes share but that's gonna come at the cost of margins at some point. It's an appealing cash flow story if you can get comfortable there's a bottom nearby. It is certainly happening - the US is getting more sober. The cancer label won’t help either. My son probably won’t touch booze and he isn’t the only one in his circle. This would be a first in our family at least from my branch making living from producing wine and ancillary thing like spirits for generations.
rkbabang Posted January 11 Posted January 11 58 minutes ago, dwy000 said: It does make me wonder how big of a fundamental shift is actually going on in the booze market and where the bottom lies. Especially when the recent studies show the drop in drinking by teens and 20's has been enormous. Restaurants are hurting from lower alcohol sales (while non-alcoholic drinks are taking off), nightclub attendance has been hammered, and it increasingly appears to be a long term shift not a short term wave. STZ takes share but that's gonna come at the cost of margins at some point. It's an appealing cash flow story if you can get comfortable there's a bottom nearby. I wonder if the legalization of pot has taken some market share away from booze as well as some younger people avoiding alcohol altogether. That said I've been looking into ABEV, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Does anyone know if younger people are drinking less alcohol in South America too or is that just a US trend?
Dinar Posted January 11 Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, rkbabang said: I wonder if the legalization of pot has taken some market share away from booze as well as some younger people avoiding alcohol altogether. That said I've been looking into ABEV, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Does anyone know if younger people are drinking less alcohol in South America too or is that just a US trend? Pot has certainly taken market share, although it is more dangerous than alcohol. I understand that there can be medical uses for pot, but there are also some very serious impacts from consuming it. South America has more room to premiumize and potentially grow volumes due to less income, however ABEV has a big business in Canada. I think ABEV has had roughly 1% annual organic volume growth over the past five and ten years. I would buy ABEV at less than 10x EPS, it is now at 11
Malmqky Posted January 11 Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Dinar said: Pot has certainly taken market share, although it is more dangerous than alcohol. I understand that there can be medical uses for pot, but there are also some very serious impacts from consuming it. South America has more room to premiumize and potentially grow volumes due to less income, however ABEV has a big business in Canada. I think ABEV has had roughly 1% annual organic volume growth over the past five and ten years. I would buy ABEV at less than 10x EPS, it is now at 11 I’m curious to hear how weed is more dangerous than alcohol. Are you referring to moderation - eg a beer or glass of wine is better than inhaling smoke? My family is unfortunately no stranger to liquor and drug abuse, and let’s just say I’ve had a few family members drink themselves to death, but the ones that abuse weed…well it could be far, far worse.
rkbabang Posted January 11 Posted January 11 18 minutes ago, Malmqky said: I’m curious to hear how weed is more dangerous than alcohol. Are you referring to moderation - eg a beer or glass of wine is better than inhaling smoke? My family is unfortunately no stranger to liquor and drug abuse, and let’s just say I’ve had a few family members drink themselves to death, but the ones that abuse weed…well it could be far, far worse. That has been my experience as well. I've know quite a few people who have done both to excess. The alcoholics had much worse outcomes, to say the least. And it's not even close.
Spekulatius Posted January 11 Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, rkbabang said: That has been my experience as well. I've know quite a few people who have done both to excess. The alcoholics had much worse outcomes, to say the least. And it's not even close. I have yet to know a person who killed himself doing weed but I know plenty who have killed themself with excessive drinking.
Dinar Posted January 11 Posted January 11 26 minutes ago, Malmqky said: I’m curious to hear how weed is more dangerous than alcohol. Are you referring to moderation - eg a beer or glass of wine is better than inhaling smoke? My family is unfortunately no stranger to liquor and drug abuse, and let’s just say I’ve had a few family members drink themselves to death, but the ones that abuse weed…well it could be far, far worse. Several issues. One is driving under the influence of pot vs drunk driving. People know don't drink and drive, and if you do, police can and do catch and punish. Nothing like this exists for weed as far as I know. Lung cancer (just like smoking cigarettes), mental illnesses like schizophrenia. The reason why I think that weed is more dangerous is because the dangers of alcohol are well known, dangers of pot are swept under the rug.
Dinar Posted January 11 Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I have yet to know a person who killed himself doing weed but I know plenty who have killed themself with excessive drinking. Rent an apartment next to someone who quietly smokes pot in his apartment or quietly has a glass of wine at night, and you will see the difference.
DooDiligence Posted January 11 Posted January 11 This is getting to be too much. The fact checking has to be stopped NOW!
WayWardCloud Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) Here is the most thorough study on harm from drugs to self and to society I could find. It's unfortunately 15 years old but I doubt much has changed. I think you might just be more numb to the ravages of alcohol because it's been around for centuries in western culture, unlike cannabis. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(10)61462-6/abstract Edited January 11 by WayWardCloud
Martian Posted January 11 Posted January 11 (edited) 4 hours ago, rkbabang said: I wonder if the legalization of pot has taken some market share away from booze as well as some younger people avoiding alcohol altogether. That said I've been looking into ABEV, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Does anyone know if younger people are drinking less alcohol in South America too or is that just a US trend? Yes. The youngsters who are into weed drink less. Specifically they drink less beer. But when they "grow up", they drink whiskey like gentlemen! Edited January 11 by Martian
Parsad Posted January 11 Posted January 11 Please move the discussion around toxicity to vices to another thread...this is on what you are buying, not on whether weed or alcohol is worse! Cheers!
73 Reds Posted January 11 Posted January 11 6 hours ago, Parsad said: Please move the discussion around toxicity to vices to another thread...this is on what you are buying, not on whether weed or alcohol is worse! Cheers! IDK, to me the booze stocks are starting to look interesting. Never owned (or even considered owning them) but I don't buy any "trend" that suggests that people are forever going to drink substantially less than before. Sure young people may like weed, but no one sells or consumes weed in mainstream establishments and booze doesn't affect anyone but the person consuming it. Tobacco companies were left all for dead when the surgeon general finally figured out that smoking was harmful but last I checked companies like PM, BTI and even MO are doing just fine.
Dave86ch Posted Sunday at 08:57 AM Posted Sunday at 08:57 AM (edited) Keep accumulating Bitcoin, planning to buy Tencent in Hong Kong, and add more META and MSTR. Edited Sunday at 09:05 AM by Dave86ch
formthirteen Posted Sunday at 09:11 PM Posted Sunday at 09:11 PM On 1/8/2025 at 10:40 PM, WayWardCloud said: For the past week I've been buying ADOBE. It went from trading at PEs in the mid-30s for a decade to a PE of 20 now over AI competition fears and subdued growth. I've been wanting to own this forever because Adobe Premiere is my main work tool in post production video. I have always wanted to own ADBE. Will buy some this week. Thanks.
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